Arabian Sea: Depression (99A Invest)

[Chacor]

Landfall is expected by 06z:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-06-2008



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 06 JUNE , 2008 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 06 JUNE 2008 (.)



THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE 6TH JUNE 2008 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 19.50 N AND LONG 62.00 E, ABOUT 1150 KM WEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 700 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780), PAKISTAN AND 450 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUR (41268), OMAN. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 20.50 N AND 22.50 N BY TOMORROW, THE 7TH JUNE 2008 BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25-30 KTS. THE LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA.

SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.



RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT. 15.00N TO 20.50 N AND WEST OF LONG. 63.00 E.



AVIALABLE BUOY, SHIP AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG WESTWARD DIFLUENCE AT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS HELPING DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG 21.00 N.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIN20 DEMS 061550

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
--------------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-06-2008 (.)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT
24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 06 JUNE, 2008 BASED ON
1200 UTC OF 06 JUNE 2008 (.)


THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
MOVED IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY
THE 6TH JUNE 2008 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABAIN
SEA NEAR LAT.20.0 DEG N AND LONG 61.5 DEG E,ABOUT 1200 KM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MUMBAI (43003),850 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI,(41780),PAKISTAN AND 370
KM SOUTHEAST OF SUR (41268) OMAN.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 20.5
DEG N AND 22.0 DEG N BY TOMORROW,THE 7TH JUNE 2008 BETWEEN 0300 AND
0600 UTC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25-30 KTS.
THE LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 994 HPA.

SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
SYSTEM CENTRE .BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
ARE SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT.15.0 DEG N TO 20.5 DEG N
WEST OF LONG.63.0 DEG E.

AVAILABLE COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM OMAN,SHIP AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT FLOW AT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH THE
RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNNING ALONG 21.0 DEG N.HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.DUE TO LIKELY INTERACTION
OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE LAND SURFACE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY EXIBIT AN
WEAKENING TREND.VARIOUS NWP MODELS ALSO SUGGEST GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Not looking like a developing system. Time to close the door.

[Sanibel]

Maybe some rain for Oman. Desert air must have gotten it.

[HurricaneRobert]

Should there be an invest soon for the BOB blob?

[HURAKAN]

Bye, bye, bye!!!

[Chacor]

WTIN20 DEMS 070035

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
--------------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-06-2008 (.)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT
24 HOURS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 06 JUNE, 2008 BASED ON
1800 UTC OF 06 JUNE 2008 (.)


THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
MOVED IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 6 JUNE
2008 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABAIN SEA NEAR LAT.
20.0 DEG N AND LONG 61.0 DEG E,ABOUT 1250 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(43003),820 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI,(41780),PAKISTAN AND 320 KM SOUTHEAST
OF SUR (41268) OMAN.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND CROSS OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 20.5 DEG N AND 22.0 DEG N
BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC OF 7TH JUNE 2008.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25-30 KTS.
THE LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 996 HPA.

SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
SYSTEM CENTRE .BROKEN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT.15.0 DEG N TO 20.5 DEG N WEST OF LONG.62.0
DEG E.

AVAILABLE COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM OMAN,SHIP AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT FLOW AT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH THE
RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNNING ALONG 21.0 DEG N.HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALY.

[ugaap]

NRL is still carrying 99A location at 0200Z mentioned at 21.2N 63E . There is a convective blob at 19N 65E . What do the experts think?

[salmon123]

well any thing can happen in this month strong monsoon winds can rebuild it

[StormspinnerD2]

It's gone, but there's another area to the east that should be monitored. I would not be surprised to see it designated 90A.

[Sanibel]

Cool. Near shore of Gujarat. When I was in Bombay in '98 we had the outside clouds of a cyclone over the town.

[salmon123]

well what do u think moderators ? what would be this ? hurakan plz
imd response to this
An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Northeast Arabian Sea & adjoining Gujarat extending upto mid-tropospheric level. Under its influence a low pressure area is likely to form over the Northeast Arabian Sea during next 48 hours.

[salmon123]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF GUJARAT COAST. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA.

[ugaap]

Any idea as to why NRL does not have anything on the Low Pressure in the North Arabian Sea?

[salmon123]

well see tomorrow what they says