Arabian Sea: Depression (99A Invest)

[Chacor]

Interesting looking system.

[salmon123]

well what do u think chacor can this invest convert in to a storm ?

[Chacor]

IMD is not saying anything much right now. Still has quite a way.

WTIN20 DEMS 030715

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-06-2008 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT
24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)


CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST AND
ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH WEST
BAY OF BENGAL (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH LAT. 25.0 DEG.
NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)

I don't currently have access to any models, being at work.

[salmon123]

[HurricaneRobert]

Is this 98A?

[badkhan]

No, this is another convection that developed after 98-A had dissipated.

[Category 5]

IMD is not saying anything much right now. Still has quite a way.

Chacor you should know better. IMD won't say anything until it starts forming an eye.

[StormspinnerD2]

It is mentioned on IMD's marine bulletin:

ARB :A2 ARABIAN SEA N. OF 10 DEG N.AND W OF 80 DEG E.(.)
I)WIND: SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC.CYCLONIC TO THE S OF 16 DEG.N
& E OF 65 DEG.E (.)
II)WEATHER:WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE S OF 16 DEG N (.)
REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY :POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

[Derek Ortt]

IMD is not saying anything much right now. Still has quite a way.

Chacor you should know better. IMD won't say anything until it starts forming an eye.

that's when IMD will say it is a well marked area of low-pressure. Once there is an open eyewall, they upgrade to depression. Not until there is a closed eyewall will IMD call the system a deep depression

[HURAKAN]

[ugaap]

What is the current status of 99A? There is no update on NRL after 2330Z .

[salmon123]

WWIO20 KNES 040400

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99A)

B. 04/0330Z

C. 14.1N

D. 67.2E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WEAK SYSTEM WITH 2.5/10 BANDING GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT
ALSO 1.0. FT BASED ON MET.

[StormspinnerD2]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 67.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. RECENT ANI-
MATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 032352Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROP-
ICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[salmon123]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04 - 06 - 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED
AT 0600 UTC (.).





A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.0 O EAST AND 17.0 O NORTH AND LONGITUDE 56.0 O EAST TO 69.0 O EAST.



RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LAT 25.0º NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)

[Chacor]

Sure has blown up a lot.

[Chacor]

Most of the sat fixes still have it at T1.0.




NRL isn't centred properly as 99A's ATCF file is over 24 hours old now.

[wyq614]

Upgraded to FAIR

[StormspinnerD2]

TCFA:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 65.9E TO 22.1N 65.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 65.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.
//
9908060312 115N 696E 15
9908060318 125N 686E 15
9908060400 134N 678E 15
9908060406 141N 672E 15
9908060412 147N 665E 20
9908060418 155N 661E 25
9908060500 164N 659E 30

[HURAKAN]

[StormspinnerD2]

YESTERDAY S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT
0000 UTC OF TODAY ,THE 5TH JUNE 2008 NEAR LAT 15.5 DEG N
AND LONG 66.0 DEG E ,ABOUT 800 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI
(43003).THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND
MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY .