EPAC: Invest 92E

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

A fishy Category 5 would be alright. We haven't had any of those yet and the year's half over. Hondo is still the reigning champ.

[cycloneye]

587
ABPZ20 KNHC 092329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[senorpepr]

I'm interested to see what sort of SHIP and SYNOP observations we get at 00Z. Earlier, a ship just north of the "center" reported pressures of 1004mb and winds of 20KT. I see the ATCF track file has 1005mb and 25KT at 12Z...

[senorpepr]

Nothing too exciting to report.

I can't get anything from that ship (WWYY), but it was moving away from the storm anyway.

Here are a few selected observations...

MMZH (103sm away) reported calm winds, 8km visibilty with moderate drizzle, and pressure of 1006.3mb.
MMAA (154sm away) reported NE winds at 4KT, 9km visibility with light rain, and pressure of 1008.1mb.
MMZO (265sm away) reported SW winds at 15KT, 16km visibility, and pressure of 1006.1mb.
76654 (251sm away) reported SW winds at 16KT, 6km visibility with haze, and pressure of 1007.2mb.
76805 (154sm away) reported ENE winds at 4KT, 10km visibility with moderate rain, and pressure of 1009.3mb.
Ship WDC7175* (330sm away) reported NW winds at 17KT, 16km visibility, and pressure of 1010.0mb.

*Pacific Gulf Marine is the ship name.

[cycloneye]

As senor said,nothing exciting here for now.

09/2345 UTC 16.3N 102.6W TOO WEAK 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

The latest ATCF plots:

Code: Select all

EP, 92, 2008061000,   , BEST,   0, 162N, 1020W,  25, 1005, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  150,  50,   0,   0,

Also the 00:00 UTC Models:

WHXX01 KMIA 100047
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC TUE JUN 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922008) 20080610 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080610 0000 080610 1200 080611 0000 080611 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 102.0W 17.6N 102.1W 18.7N 102.5W 19.4N 103.1W
BAMD 16.2N 102.0W 16.8N 103.2W 17.5N 104.6W 18.1N 105.7W
BAMM 16.2N 102.0W 17.2N 102.7W 18.3N 103.7W 19.0N 104.7W
LBAR 16.2N 102.0W 16.8N 103.4W 17.9N 104.8W 19.0N 105.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080612 0000 080613 0000 080614 0000 080615 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 103.6W 21.1N 104.5W 21.6N 106.6W 21.6N 109.5W
BAMD 18.7N 106.8W 20.0N 109.4W 21.6N 112.8W 23.3N 117.1W
BAMM 19.7N 105.7W 21.2N 108.3W 22.8N 112.1W 24.4N 116.7W
LBAR 20.3N 107.1W 22.5N 108.8W 24.7N 110.2W 25.4N 111.8W
SHIP 45KTS 40KTS 31KTS 20KTS
DSHP 45KTS 40KTS 31KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 102.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 100.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 98.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system appears to be close to depression strength based on the new burst of convection that has formed over the "LLC". That is located near 16 north/103 west, and the system is moving west-northwest offshore of Mexico. The LLC appears to be closed, but otherwise broad with a broad low cloud level turning. So, this system has about 24-36 hours before reaching cooler waters at its rate of movement.


I expect a weak tropical storm possibly out of this...

[KWT]

Yeah it does appear to be fairly close but maybe not quite there yet. Still it does look like its going to stay offland and therefore it does have a reasonable chance of becoming a tropical depression.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL
WESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Nothing impressive.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Center relocated near 15.5 north, 103.5 west. Latest satellite shows strong eastly shear at the upper levels, so I now expect this will not have much chance before moving into cooler sst's by 24 hours. The low pressure is now mostly devoid of convection...Chances of a tropical depression is now less then 25%.

Forecast
0 15.5 north/103.5 west 25 knots
6 15.6 north/104.2 west 25 knots
12 15.8 north/104.6 west 20 knots

[Chacor]

With all due respect Matt shouldn't you be including the s2k disclaimer with that post?

[Chacor]

EP, 92, 2008061012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1029W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[cycloneye]

Next:

268
ABPZ20 KNHC 101734
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED
FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO NEAR PUERTO
VALLARTA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

738
WHXX04 KWBC 101724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92E

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.4 102.9 280./ 7.0
6 17.0 103.1 346./ 6.9
12 17.6 103.2 343./ 5.6
18 18.2 105.3 286./20.7
24 18.1 105.3 158./ .5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Sanibel]

This weak little invest caused some flooding on the southern coast of Mexico and Acapulco. Goes to show slow movers can be just as bad as high wind systems.

[cycloneye]

Goodbye!

NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep922008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200806102206
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2008, DB, O, 2008060912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922008
EP, 92, 2008060900, , BEST, 0, 160N, 980W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008060906, , BEST, 0, 160N, 990W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008060912, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1000W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008060918, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1010W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008061000, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1018W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008061006, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1024W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008061012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1029W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

YOU HAVE BEEN DEACTIVATED!!! GOODBYE!!!

______________________________________



You're the Weakest Link, goodbye!!!