EPAC: Invest 92E

[tolakram]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

labeled on the floater, and weather underground, nothing at NRL.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00892.html






ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
ACAPULCO. THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF
THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ANGEL WESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[Chacor]

Yep, 92E is up on ATCF. NRL might be having issues.

[CrazyC83]

Looks pretty well organized...

[KWT]

Yeah its got some good convection I have to admit however its also very close to land at the moment. If it can stay off-shore it may have a chance but we will just have to wait and see.

[ncupsscweather]

92E is now up on the NRL

[HurricaneRobert]

Looks better than Arthur already.

[ncupsscweather]

according to observations the area of low pressure has dropped from 1007mb to 1005mb

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

       *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *      INVEST  EP922008  06/09/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    37    41    47    50    51    49    47    45    43    38
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    30    29    28    27    27    28    26    24    22    17
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    24    25    26    26    27    30    31    31    29    26

SHEAR (KTS)       20    18    23    20    14    10     7     8     5     5     3    11     5
SHEAR DIR         58    47    54    55    45    56   359    29   357    56     6   107   192
SST (C)         29.3  29.1  28.9  28.6  28.4  27.8  27.5  27.2  26.9  26.1  24.4  22.5  21.2
POT. INT. (KT)   157   154   152   149   147   141   137   134   131   123   106    87    73
200 MB T (C)   -53.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9    10     8     7     9     6     8     5     5     2     1     0
700-500 MB RH     68    68    64    66    64    59    55    54    44    42    40    39    35
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    73    75    83    77    68    66    38    47    42    29    24    14    13
200 MB DIV        50    65    73    33     3     9    -6    -4   -35   -33   -17    -5    -6
LAND (KM)         87    47     7    -9   -18   -83   -68   -15    84   225   188   174   319
LAT (DEG N)     16.0  16.6  17.1  17.6  18.0  19.0  19.6  20.1  20.5  20.9  21.3  21.7  22.0
LONG(DEG W)    100.0 100.4 100.7 101.2 101.7 103.0 104.1 105.3 106.5 107.8 109.4 111.1 113.2
STM SPEED (KT)     7     6     6     7     7     7     6     6     6     7     8     9     9

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  380  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  16.7 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  98.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   9.  14.  19.  22.  24.  23.  21.  18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   7.  10.  14.  18.  20.  21.  19.  18.  15.  10.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   6.   4.   2.   2.   3.   3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      4.   8.  12.  16.  22.  25.  26.  24.  22.  20.  18.  13.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008     INVEST 06/09/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  19.1 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  44.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.8 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.8 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008     INVEST 06/09/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##    NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED

[MGC]

If 92E can manage to stay off shore then I think it has a good chance to become a depression by tomorrow......MGC

[KWT]

Yep I agree as long as it can stay off shore then its got a chance at becoming a tropical depression within the next 24-48hrs IMO. We shall see!

[senorpepr]

Ship WWYY (Seabulk America) reported at 15Z from 16.4N, 100W (or about 28mi N of the invest center) a pressure of 1004mb.

Temperature was 25°C with a dewpoint of 24.2°c. Winds were 360° at 20KT. Skies were overcast at 1000ft. Visibility was 4km (~2.5mi) with moderate/heavy rainshowers.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks pretty good. Id say TD by tomorrow if the trend continues and land doesnt interfere.

[srainhoutx]

Monsoon trough is at it again. Looks to be the focal point this early season IMHO.

[vbhoutex]

Monsoon trough is at it again. Looks to be the focal point this early season IMHO.

I was thinking that the other day too. The question is-How muchis it going to influence the formation of TC's? Seems to me that it already is "helping" enhance the chances more/earlier than we normally see???

[srainhoutx]

Monsoon trough is at it again. Looks to be the focal point this early season IMHO.

I was thinking that the other day too. The question is-How muchis it going to influence the formation of TC's? Seems to me that it already is "helping" enhance the chances more/earlier than we normally see???

Boy have we had a prolonged setup. Since February. I have thought that a monsoon trough might be the key this year. Western CONUS troughs still digging. And the door is slowly opening for some deep tropical moisture.

[cycloneye]

Getting better Organized!

[KWT]

Oh yeah thats starting to gain some interesting curveature in those convective bands. Still got as little way to go yet but its got the circulation and the convection as well which is a big part of the battle...now its just got to stay offland for a little while longer!

[Sanibel]

Convection is a little weak.

[HURAKAN]

09/1745 UTC 16.0N 101.4W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is nothing more boring in the tropics than a fish EPAC storm...