Invest 91L in SE Caribbean=(Gone from NRL)

[lebron23]

Hmm?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

[bvigal]

Wow look at that, an itty-bitty invest! From NHC/TAFB


This morning NWS/SJU told us the tropical wave containing this low would effect our weather, and they mentioned the wave again at 11am:
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[gatorcane]

TAFB is bringing it WNW and not West directly into SA. I expect it to stay together if this path verifies.

[vaffie]

I don't care what the chances are--I'm excited again.

[tolakram]

It's a tiny little spec. A mini-cane? Moving rapidly west with no signs of turning NW.

So are we wobble watching yet?

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's a tiny little spec. A mini-cane? Moving rapidly west with no signs of turning NW.

So are we wobble watching yet?

I think the old fashioned CLIPERS has nailed this one...

[Brent]

Well this was most unexpected. Doesn't look that interesting though unless it can miss South America.

[wxman57]

TAFB is bringing it WNW and not West directly into SA. I expect it to stay together if this path verifies.

That may be, but the small swirl is moving almost due west or just south of west. It's 118nm from Venezuela as of 11:45am CDT. On its current track it'll move inland south of Trinidad before sunset. The associated wave axis will continue westward with part of it extending north of the Venezuelan coast.

[curtadams]

It looks pretty credible on RGB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

Obvious spin and some banding. If we had a floater we'd probably be arguing over whether it has a closed circulation. It's certainly not Typhoon Tip or Katrina, but a TD is very possible and even a TS, given the forward motion. Even if it is a TD, though, an upgrade is unlikely, because there probably won't be any surface wind measurements.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog" video. Not even JB is excited about this.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111709
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF TRINIDAD IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO VENEZUELA
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, I guess hoisting an "invest" tag on a system that has no chance to develop doesn't cost anything.


Maybe this wave will do something when it gets to the Western Caribbean.

[Decomdoug]

I am pretty sure 91L's only real value is as a practice exercise. However it is good to have a non-threatening system to watch.

[bvigal]

Well, I guess hoisting an "invest" tag on a system that has no chance to develop doesn't cost anything.


Maybe this wave will do something when it gets to the Western Caribbean.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm with you, Ed. The wave energy that generated this little swirl may later produce a circulation over Caribbean waters, where shear is less and water is warmer. Yesterday the models said we wouldn't even have any rain from this wave, showing most of it passing by to our south. They have sure changed in 24hrs. Here's the latest for our local area from the NAM:

Perhaps a slow-moving depression is possible. If I lived in Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, I'd be watching this wave for the next couple of days.

[Ivanhater]

Well it looks like they dont think it has a chance right now but obviously they made it an invest because they have some interest in it when it gets in the western caribbean...

[gatorcane]

Latest loops are definitely showing the Wave energy is starting to move/build more WNW. I see some evidence that the circulation is starting to ever-so-slightly move just a tad North of west also.

Also, if it can wrap in some of the deeper moistuer about 200 miles behind it, it would help it even more.

[micktooth]

Let me get this straight, we are talking about the small "poof" of clouds just to the east of Venezuela and not the larger mass of clouds farther east in the Atlantic right? Wow!

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

View last 5 frames. I dunno, maybe a little north of west...

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111709
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF TRINIDAD IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO VENEZUELA
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]