Invest 91L in SE Caribbean=(Gone from NRL)

[Cyclone1]

It's up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's up.

I'd give it, unofficially, a 3.278% (four sig figs!) chance of becoming a tropical depression.

[Tampa_God]

Right now, condition is terrible for this to develop. We'll just see what happesn to it after the shear

[Ed Mahmoud]

It'll be in Venezuela in about a day.


Anybody know if it would retain 91L as a name if the wave looks interesting when it (maybe) gets back over water in the SW Caribbean?

[srainhoutx]

[cheezyWXguy]

isnt the TUTT supposed to move NE anytime soon? I thought I read that sometime yesterday

[Cyclone1]

Hmm, interesting models. However, I think land will kill it.

[gatorcane]

Any reason why we have an invest for this system? NHC gives it a 0% chance of development

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmm, interesting models. However, I think land will kill it.

I dunno...weaker systems maintain much better over land than stronger systems. Its remnants may still exist once it reemerges off of south america, and well need to watch it then

[Chacor]

Last I checked, the TWO said no TC development is expected and didn't even flag this up.

[gatorcane]

looks like it is missing the intense shear just to the north...the only chance it has is if it skirts the coast of South America on its track through the Caribbean.

If it ventures farther north, shear will rip it apart.

[gatorcane]

[djones65]

If you look at visible satellite loops you can see that this system is a well defined, but extremely small circulation with a mini-cdo feature which has persisted for 8 hours or so. It is spinning nicely in the loops and I would not be surprised to see tropical storm force gusts as it passes between Trinidad and the coast of Venezuela. It is located near 9N so it is just south of the band of strong westerlies a short distance north of it. It reminds me a lot of tropical storm Emily in 1996. I'm not saying this is a tropical storm, however, its small size and what in my opinion is a well defined circulation seems like Emily would be an analog. It will be moving along the Venezuela coast or the extreme southeast Caribbean Sea in about 18 hours or less so its future in the short term is poor to nil, but the vorticity maximum may be able to hang on until it gets over the western Caribbean Sea this weekend.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

to far south wont live.......

[gatorcane]

to far south wont live.......

Well believe it or not the REASON why it is actually not getting killed is because it is just south of a strong band of westerlies....it is currently over ULL winds of only 5-10K. There actually is a chance, albeit small, that it can maintain or gradually organize if it stays in the extreme South Caribbean...and then once it reaches the W. Caribbean, it should have better conditions for development.

I have to admit, it does look pretty good on vis loops this morning...a definite circulation and small convection area that has persisted around the circulation for 24 hours+

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is the funniest excuse for action I have ever saw...Talk about looking for target practice...This thing has worse than 0% chance IMO..

[x-y-no]

Yeah,this thing has no chance.

What little there is to it will run straight into South America.

[wxman57]

It'll be in Venezuela in about a day.


Anybody know if it would retain 91L as a name if the wave looks interesting when it (maybe) gets back over water in the SW Caribbean?

Actually, I have it moving at close to 20 kts. With 140 miles to go until it reaches the NE Venezuelan coast it has about 7 more hours over water.

It's small enough not to be impacted so much by the shear to its north. But it'll be inland and dissipated tonight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It'll be in Venezuela in about a day.


Anybody know if it would retain 91L as a name if the wave looks interesting when it (maybe) gets back over water in the SW Caribbean?

Actually, I have it moving at close to 20 kts. With 140 miles to go until it reaches the NE Venezuelan coast it has about 7 more hours over water.

It's small enough not to be impacted so much by the shear to its north. But it'll be inland and dissipated tonight.

Would the wave be 91L if it does come out the other side and look interesting?

[wxman57]

Would the wave be 91L if it does come out the other side and look interesting?

I'd be more concerned about the much larger system to its east when IT reaches the SW Caribbean. This low-level microswirl won't last long inland.

Here's a close-up of 91L: