WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[Chacor]

Nothing from JMA or PAGASA.

[KWT]

not a bad mass of convection, right now just a blob of course but models don't appear to do anything with this area. Still we will have to see if the convection can keep itself sustained at this depth for any length of time.

[cycloneye]

540
ABPW10 PGTW 131330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/131330Z-140600ZJUN2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3N 141.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEVELOPING,
BUT POORLY DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
LEVEL ANALYSIS OF SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND CLOUD TRACK WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA DEPICT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LIES BENEATH A DIFFLUENT REGION
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing here!!!

[HurricaneRobert]

Look over to the east of that. I don't think it's centered.

[HURAKAN]

Organization-wise, "nothing here."

[wyq614]

the area of convection previously located near 5.3n
141.2e, approximately 310 nm southeast of Yap, has dissipated
and is no longer considered suspect for development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours

bye bye bye

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rainfall affecting Taiwan.

[Chacor]

Stationary front there.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 111E TO 27N 117E 31N 123E 30N 129E 29N 135E
30N 141E 30N 144E 30N 152E.

[KWT]

Yeah does look like a lot of rainfall is there at the moment. Still seems to be scattered convection but thats not all that impressive really.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

[StormspinnerD2]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N 139.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, BUT
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152356Z ASCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS BROAD CIRCULATION. RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSER-
VATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP REPORT 0.5 AND 1.0 MB PRESSURE FALLS
RESPECTIVELY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. SINCE THE
CIRCULATION IS BROAD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[KWT]

Hmmm convection has increased but the overall organisation of this system still is very poor with no real concentration of convection just a broad region of lower pressure.

[wyq614]

Pay attention to the recent EC model, 94W deserves to be closely observed.

[KWT]

Interesting that the ECM forms something from this area, its been pretty good with NW Pac systems so far this year. Mind you that is 240hrs out to be fair.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Now thats starting to look more like a tropical system worth watching now Hurakan, that may not be all that far away from tropical depression status.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
137.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE
LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELLS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE DISTURB-
ANCE ARE ENHANCING OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.