Invest 93E

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Derek Ortt

Invest 93E

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:49 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
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#2 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:58 am

Not a very big system.

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SMALL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO AN AREA LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: Invest 93E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:14 am

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1303 UTC SAT JUN 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932008) 20080621 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080621 1200 080622 0000 080622 1200 080623 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 116.8W 14.1N 120.1W 14.8N 123.5W 15.2N 126.8W
BAMD 13.3N 116.8W 13.9N 119.3W 14.5N 121.8W 15.2N 124.1W
BAMM 13.3N 116.8W 14.1N 120.3W 14.8N 123.8W 15.4N 127.3W
LBAR 13.3N 116.8W 13.9N 119.7W 14.8N 122.7W 15.7N 125.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080623 1200 080624 1200 080625 1200 080626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 130.1W 15.7N 136.3W 16.1N 142.8W 16.9N 149.5W
BAMD 15.7N 126.0W 16.4N 128.9W 16.2N 131.6W 16.5N 135.2W
BAMM 15.6N 130.3W 15.5N 135.5W 16.0N 140.7W 17.6N 145.6W
LBAR 16.3N 127.7W 17.1N 131.9W 16.7N 135.8W 10.2N 139.5W
SHIP 34KTS 25KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 25KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 116.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 114.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 110.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:42 am

also mentioned this morning in nwhhc outlook
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:14 am

Image
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:17 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 21 2008

A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N115W 1012 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. A
RATHER PERSISTENT LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT LITTLE CHANGE
HAS BEEN NOTED WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 6-12 HRS.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:39 am

21/1200 UTC 13.7N 117.1W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific Ocean

Image
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 10:29 am

Image
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 12:07 pm

Image

Image

The circulation looks very well established and convection is organized.
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Re: Invest 93E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:01 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 211754
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#11 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:22 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

The circulation looks very well established and convection is organized.


It has some of that feathery looking cirrus that suggests it has at least some decent outflow.
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Re: Invest 93E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 21, 2008 2:03 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 211847
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC SAT JUN 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932008) 20080621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080621 1800 080622 0600 080622 1800 080623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 118.6W 13.9N 121.8W 14.5N 125.1W 14.8N 128.4W
BAMD 13.0N 118.6W 13.4N 121.6W 13.8N 124.5W 14.2N 127.0W
BAMM 13.0N 118.6W 13.9N 122.1W 14.6N 125.5W 15.0N 128.7W
LBAR 13.0N 118.6W 13.5N 121.7W 14.4N 124.9W 15.1N 127.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080623 1800 080624 1800 080625 1800 080626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 131.5W 15.5N 137.8W 16.0N 144.7W 17.1N 151.7W
BAMD 14.5N 128.9W 14.6N 132.0W 14.0N 135.4W 14.7N 139.9W
BAMM 15.3N 131.5W 15.2N 136.7W 15.7N 141.9W 17.9N 147.1W
LBAR 15.5N 130.1W 16.3N 134.4W 15.4N 138.3W 15.0N 143.6W
SHIP 34KTS 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 118.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 115.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 113.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 21, 2008 3:02 pm

21/1800 UTC 14.1N 118.4W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific Ocean
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Re: Invest 93E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:52 pm

155
ABPZ20 KNHC 212339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS INTERMITTENTLY...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN
AREA LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

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#15 Postby KWT » Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:03 pm

I've got to admit thats starting to look a lot like a tropical depression now. Nice deep convection with a fairly well established circulation and some inflow bands starting to appear on the southern side.

The main problem is with the system heading towards higher shear and cooler waters which will severely limit any chances this system has.
Last edited by KWT on Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:03 pm

I wrote this one off . Had its chance and did not quite make it
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Re: Invest 93E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:43 pm

The tropical model suite gives zero chance:

WHXX01 KMIA 220031
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC SUN JUN 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932008) 20080622 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080622 0000 080622 1200 080623 0000 080623 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 119.5W 14.9N 122.8W 15.5N 126.2W 15.9N 129.6W
BAMD 13.9N 119.5W 14.6N 122.2W 15.1N 124.7W 15.5N 127.0W
BAMM 13.9N 119.5W 14.9N 123.0W 15.6N 126.5W 16.0N 129.7W
LBAR 13.9N 119.5W 14.5N 122.4W 15.4N 125.3W 15.9N 127.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080624 0000 080625 0000 080626 0000 080627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 132.8W 16.8N 139.9W 17.9N 146.9W 19.7N 153.5W
BAMD 15.9N 128.8W 16.5N 132.1W 16.6N 135.3W 18.2N 139.0W
BAMM 16.3N 132.6W 16.7N 138.3W 17.5N 143.5W 20.7N 148.1W
LBAR 16.6N 130.3W 17.3N 134.6W 16.9N 138.3W 17.9N 142.2W
SHIP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 119.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 117.2W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 114.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:54 pm

Adios amigo!!
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 21, 2008 10:48 pm

Image

Hasta la vista, baby!!
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#20 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 22, 2008 2:25 am

Well now its gone what we call 'poof'. Convection has totally died off and so its back to watching and seeing.
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