Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

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#261 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:50 am

What would that be Derek?
The band on the northern side of the system or something else?
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#262 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:02 am

Mind you, Douglas also has NPASS=6 NFAIL=1.
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Re: Hurricane Boris in EPAC

#263 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:07 am

cycloneye wrote:That is incredible what this system has done in its life as a cyclone.Maybe it will get close to Hawaii?


SHIPS 12z run dissipates the cyclone in 72 hours.

In HURDAT, the following storms existed in the Central Pacific in July and threatened or made landfall on Hawaii:

Kanoa 1957's HURDAT entry ends as a hurricane east of the Big Island
Daniel 1982 passed just to the west of Big Island as a 25-kt TD
Eugene 1993 made landfall on Big Island as a 30-kt TD; the most recent cyclone to make landfall in the state
Dalila 1989 passed south of the islands as a 55-kt TS; affected NW Hawaii after dissipating
Daniel 2000 tracked north of the islands as a 60-kt TS and required TS warnings
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Re: Hurricane Boris in EPAC

#264 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:08 am

[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Hurricane Boris
7am pst
7-2-2008


Winds 95 mph
Pressure 978 millibars "est"
Movement west-northwest at 9 knots
Location 16.4/127.2


Boris strengthens to a borderline cat2 hurricane.

A weakness has formed to the northwest of Boris; this has moved it into cooler waters, but so far no effect on the cyclone, in fact just the opposite this morning with a clearly defined eye and eyewall has formed. This has formed into almost a classic like hurricane. Also cimss shows it now has a 5.1t=85-90 knots, while another cimss source says it has a 5.5t. We will up it to 4.8t because of the open eyewall seen on the 85h as of a few hours ago. So just below cat2 strength for now is our current thinking. Models forecast the cyclone to turn westward again as the subtropical high pressure rebuilds to its north after 24 hours. If it can turn faster then forecasted, this thing could be with us in 3-4 days, or if not it will likely weaken very fast after 24 hours by moving into even cooler water. I'm guesting that it has about 2-3 days lefted as a cyclone.

We forecast the system to have a short window to become a cat2 storm over the next 6 hours. After that we expect the storm to weaken....If latest frames showing some what of a less defined eye wall, it would not suprize me if that was starting already.

forecast
0 80 knot 16.4/127.2
6 85 knot 16.6/127.8
12 65 knots 16.9/128.5
24 50 knots 17.2/129.5
36 40 knots 17.1/132.5

...
I've been way to far left so far in my forecast. I'm moving rightward.
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Re:

#265 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:43 am

Chacor wrote:Mind you, Douglas also has NPASS=6 NFAIL=1.


Fair enough how odd is that lol!

Interesting forecast Matt, personally I'd go with something between 75-80kts if I had to make a call but its tough to say using only sat.estimates.
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#266 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:51 am

743
WTPZ32 KNHC 021450
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 MILES
...1945 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...127.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Where have we heard that before...
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#267 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:51 am

WTPZ42 KNHC 021451
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE 77 AND 65
KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE EYE/EYEWALL STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED
BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND THE 24-25C WATER NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT. WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKING BORIS OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY SHORTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. BORIS HAS BEEN STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH
OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO TO FEEL A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 16.5N 127.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 17.0N 128.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 17.5N 129.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 17.5N 130.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 16.8N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1200Z 16.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#268 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:52 am

Yep indeed we have heard that before with our goodn freind back in 2005!
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#269 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:22 am

Eye's looking ragged again.

Image
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#270 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:23 am

Yep and also the convection has become a lot more shallow in the last few hours, this may well be the weakening that the NHC has been talking about, may be down to 60kts next advisory?
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#271 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:53 am

Image

Losing it fast. Might not even be 55 kt by the next package.
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#272 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:15 am

Image

Convection really thinning out.
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#273 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:17 am

Yep and really quite rapidly as well, will indeed probably be down to55kts next advisory and well on its way to weakening for good I think.
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#274 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:37 am

THE EYE OF HURRICANE BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 NM...1945
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
02/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BOTH INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE EYE FEATURE
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. BUT JUST RECENTLY RECEIVED
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD TOP CONVECTION IN THE S AND W
QUADRANTS HAS WARMED INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE ALREADY
ENTERING A WEAKENING PHASE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN W SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN
THE E SEMICIRCLE. BORIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
IN 48 HOURS...AND INTO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
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Re: Hurricane Boris in EPAC

#275 Postby Category 5 » Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:42 am

Can it find new life in the late evening once again? We'll see.
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#276 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:13 pm

Image

Got a lot of work to do if it wants to retain hurricane strength.
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#277 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:17 pm

Yep eyewall now open on the western side as well, I think 55kts next advisory is looking most likely.
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#278 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:48 pm

50kt

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1907 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 127.5W 17.2N 128.8W 17.5N 130.3W 17.5N 131.7W
BAMD 16.7N 127.5W 17.7N 128.6W 18.7N 129.6W 19.5N 130.8W
BAMM 16.7N 127.5W 17.5N 128.4W 18.0N 129.3W 18.3N 130.2W
LBAR 16.7N 127.5W 17.9N 128.4W 19.1N 129.4W 20.1N 130.3W
SHIP 50KTS 41KTS 32KTS 21KTS
DSHP 50KTS 41KTS 32KTS 21KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800 080707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 133.4W 16.6N 137.5W 15.6N 143.0W 15.0N 148.4W
BAMD 19.9N 132.4W 19.8N 137.0W 18.9N 142.4W 17.7N 147.4W
BAMM 18.3N 131.5W 17.4N 135.2W 15.6N 139.9W 14.3N 144.0W
LBAR 20.8N 131.6W 21.0N 134.9W 20.1N 138.8W 19.4N 142.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 127.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 126.2W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 125.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
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#279 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 3:01 pm

50kts seems quite reasonable given its current strength, I wouldn't expect it to last much more then 24hrs from here even though Boris has had a habit of surviving longer then it should do.
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#280 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jul 02, 2008 3:22 pm

Looking at the current...45 knots might even be reasonable.
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