Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[Chacor]

Not sure if ADT is overdoing it. Aside from its eye, I'm not seeing convection deep enough to warrant a 90-knot classification.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2008 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:37 N Lon : 126:42:07 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 970.4mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 5.1 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 40 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -52.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Chacor]

That's a hurricane, but not a 90-knot hurricane. Pretty sure that ADT's going crazy only because of the eye warmth.

[HURAKAN]

I also think 90 knots is high but it's at least a 90 mph hurricane.

[KWT]

I agree I don't think this system is quite as strong as that and as the NHC has noted the strongest winds probably won't be mixed very well given the marginal SST's present. I suspect they will up the winds to 80kts though and it has got a good clear eye to be fair.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Saying that though the convection isn't shallow either, esp on the southern side of the eyewall there is some decently deep convection.
The northern eyewall has also gotten stronger recently as well which has probably helped this system get a higher rating.

wonder what the NHC will do, wouldn't be all that surprising to see this upto a category 2 hurricane though would it given its current structure and the eye has stayed this time and not gone like previous days.

[HURAKAN]

Note: It appears this map is having little or no effect on Boris!

[KWT]

It reminds me a lot of Epsilon in that it moved into an area of very low heat content and yet managed to keep at hurricane strength for quite a long time. If we were to use that map then logcially Boris should weaken soon but will it?

[CrazyC83]

Looks like about 75 kt to me. It is a fairly shallow hurricane it seems.

[KWT]

Its fairly shallow but there is some fairly deep convection with this systemk though on the southern side so I don't think its quite as shallow as other hurricanes like for example epsilon but its not a deep system neither thats for sure!

[Chacor]

EP, 02, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1269W, 65, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 75, 75, 60, 1012, 250, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BORIS, D,
EP, 02, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1269W, 65, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 40, 40, 30, 1012, 250, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BORIS, D,
EP, 02, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1269W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 25, 25, 20, 1012, 250, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BORIS, D,

Held at 65 kts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Going back to what Derek was saying yesterday, is this becoming annular? How much of what appears to be banding actually is banding, as compared to outflow channels?


Not quite a truck tire yet, but it sort of looks like it is heading in that direction.

[KWT]

Hmm thats interesting that they are ignoring the Sat.estimates, I think it looks stronger then 65kts but then again they will probably say the same thing they did last time about the winds probably not mixing down to the surface very well.

[Chacor]

Well, SAB still has T4.0 and TAFB still has T4.5, so probably the same reasoning as last time.

[KWT]

Yep though even that 4.5 would justify a slight rise in the strength in the offical forecast, still the fact this is still a hurricane is pretty impressive given the heat content it has to work with presently.

[Chacor]

Going back to what Derek was saying yesterday, is this becoming annular?

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Going back to what Derek was saying yesterday, is this becoming annular?

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/02/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

Thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

it failed just one of the criteria to be classified as annular