Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[CrazyC83]

Down to 50 kt. It is hard to tell exactly with these shallow systems though - it almost seems to be going extratropical...something that is very rare with EPAC storms.

[cycloneye]

255
WTPZ42 KNHC 022038
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

BORIS IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED NO
BELIEVABLE VECTORS HIGHER THAN 50 KT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM TODAY AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS. WITH SSTS NO HIGHER
THAN 24C ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED UNTIL BORIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR
LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET...MEDIUM BAM...AND SHALLOW BAM.
THESE MODELS ARE FASTER THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 16.9N 127.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 17.3N 128.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 129.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.2N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 14.5N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneRobert]

Convection's returned a bit. It looks better than at 1630Z. Boris only comes out at night.

[RL3AO]

Convection's returned a bit. It looks better than at 1630Z. Boris only comes out at night.

Its about noon where Boris is.

[HurricaneRobert]

Its about noon where Boris is.

This storm has improved over the afternoon and peaked overnight for the past few days.

[CrazyC83]

Looks a lot better now it seems...

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 030246
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

BORIS IS STUBBORNLY CONTINUING TO DISPLAY RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION DESPITE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS THIS EVENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBER ESTIMATES WERE 4.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE CIMSS AMSU TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED ONLY 52
KT FROM A 2229Z AMSU PASS. THIS LOWER VALUE IS CONSISTENT WITH AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING ABOUT 50 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 50 KT. A 1738Z ASCAT PASS...THOUGH
IT MISSED BORIS' CENTER...DID CONFIRM THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAS
NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY.

BORIS' TRACK CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7-8 KT. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IMMEDIATE TURN TOWARD THE WEST...BUT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN MAKING THIS TURN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF RUNS. THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TODAY LIKELY IS THE
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF A STILL DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG
WITH THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF BORIS.
BUT IF THE STORM IS INDEED ABOUT TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND
IT IS ANTICIPATED HERE THAT IT WILL...THEN THE TURN TO THE WEST AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST SHOULD MATERIALIZE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD PERSISTENCE AT 12 HR AND THEN PRIMARILY UPON
GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND HWRF AT LONGER TIME PERIODS. THIS TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR.

BORIS WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 23C SHORTLY...AS INDICATED BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST. IT MAY VERY
WELL BE THAT TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE REINVIGORATION OF BORIS IS ITS
LAST GASP BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...IS
BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 17.7N 128.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 18.0N 129.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 18.2N 130.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 18.2N 130.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 17.9N 132.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

50 kt is quite conservative IMO. I'd say 60 kt personally.

[Chacor]

WTPZ32 KNHC 030831
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

...BORIS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN TODAY AND TOMORROW...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1270 MILES...2050 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...128.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 030900
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

BORIS APPEARS TO FINALLY BE GIVING IN TO THE COLDER WATERS OVER
WHICH IT IS MOVING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LAGGING BEHIND TO THE SOUTH. A
QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 0226Z SHOWED THAT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE
STILL NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SINCE THEN. CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
COOLER WATERS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
BORIS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 17.3N 128.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 129.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 130.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 131.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.7N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z 14.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

754
WTPZ32 KNHC 031441
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

...BORIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1300 MILES...2090 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 24 TO 336 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BORIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...129.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Well yet again Boris is still hanging on despite being on for the count yesterday but looks like it came back somewhat when I was asleep though it looks like its weakened a little again, what odds it flares up again close to Dmax over there!

Still think its time is nearly up...also note for Bertha in the Atlantic, this storm is over even colder waters then this and its been upto hurricane status in waters like that!

[cycloneye]

The forgotten Boris still barely hanging on.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

BORIS HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BECAUSE BORIS WAS A HURRICANE AND IS SPINNING
DOWN VERY SLOWLY...WE ARE ASSUMING THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME 35-KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BORIS IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATER
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO A CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED. BORIS COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN A
DAY.

THE SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER BORIS MORE TO THE WEST
SOUTH WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 17.3N 130.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.2N 130.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 16.6N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.3N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Thanks to Bertha no one pays attention to the "Boring Boris!!!!"

[brunota2003]

I have been paying attention to both, just not really posting...watching. GO BORIS! You can do it!

[HURAKAN]

Yep, Go Boris, but go the other way if you want to live!!!

[KWT]

Wow still a tropical storm, this one real stubborn storm isn't it, very good looking naked swirl, bit like Douglas as it happens!

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Depression:

038
WTPZ32 KNHC 040233
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

...BORIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1390 MILES...2235 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
BORIS WILL LIKELY DECAY INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...130.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

RIP to the tenasious Boris,but forgotten at the end.

WTPZ32 KNHC 040835
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2008

...BORIS DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST PACIFIC...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1420 MILES...2285 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH AND
THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BORIS NO LONGER HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...130.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[KWT]

Well there you go finally Boris has given into the cooler waters, took long enough though didn't it!