Tropical Depression Cristina in EPAC

[cycloneye]

Still a depression.

WHXX01 KMIA 280050
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (EP032008) 20080628 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 0000 080628 1200 080629 0000 080629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 123.3W 14.8N 125.1W 15.8N 126.9W 16.7N 128.7W
BAMD 13.9N 123.3W 14.5N 125.0W 15.2N 126.8W 15.9N 128.8W
BAMM 13.9N 123.3W 14.5N 125.0W 15.2N 126.8W 15.6N 128.6W
LBAR 13.9N 123.3W 14.7N 124.7W 15.9N 126.2W 16.9N 127.8W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 0000 080701 0000 080702 0000 080703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 130.9W 19.2N 136.3W 20.8N 141.1W 22.5N 143.9W
BAMD 16.7N 130.9W 18.1N 135.1W 19.2N 139.1W 20.0N 142.6W
BAMM 16.3N 130.8W 17.4N 135.5W 18.4N 140.1W 19.2N 143.9W
LBAR 18.1N 129.8W 21.4N 133.6W 27.3N 134.2W 35.4N 125.1W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS 23KTS
DSHP 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 123.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 121.7W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 120.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Category 5]

Time to hand out

[HURAKAN]

28/0000 UTC 13.9N 122.5W T2.0/2.5 03E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Category 5]

Not a bad looking system really.

This is a bit dated but still.

[HURAKAN]

205
WTPZ33 KNHC 280231
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1075 MILES...1730 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...14.2 N...123.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTPZ43 KNHC 280232
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
STRETCHES INTO THE ITCZ...GIVING A RATHER ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH AND IT COULD BE NAMED ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED AHEAD OF THREE-E. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS...
ICON.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 300/8. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED
TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS
INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALBEIT JUST A TAD SLOWER. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FOR NOW...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THREE-E AND BORIS WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH APART SO AS TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN
THEIR CIRCULATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 14.2N 123.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 14.5N 124.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 14.8N 128.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 14.9N 129.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 15.0N 133.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Meso]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280824
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE
CYCLONE ONLY HAS A DAY OR TWO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
6 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE AND WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.3N 123.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 126.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 15.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 142.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm very impressed with our "TD" big burst of convection has formed into a cdo, with nice outflow out of all most every quad, that most hurricanes would dream at night to have. It is IMHO to me laughable not to think this is a tropical storm. But everyone has a option and I have one of the strongest in the tropical cyclone watching world!

No I'm not saying it is any more than a 40-45 knot tropical storm. But looking at a loop that is amazing burst of convection and outflow faning outwards fast.


I can't believe I have to clear anything up, because I believe that all human beings have the right to disagree with the "officals" or anyone. In fact all I'm saying is I disagree with our friend Avila. That means I disagree with him, but think he has earned my and your respect. In I will never stop intill I'm dead! Hopefully old and gray at that.

[KWT]

Hmm its close, yesterday night it looked like it may have been a tropical storm but since then the structure appears to have been a little messier. Still I think its a little stronger then sat.estimates show it to be.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUN 2008 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:21:22 N Lon : 123:51:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -33.7C Cloud Region Temp : -49.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

3.0/3.0 WOW, just adds support to my thinking. Unbelieveable!

[cycloneye]

There will be a new tropical storm (Cristina) when the 8 AM PDT advisory is out.

EP, 03, 2008062812, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1244W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 0, 50,

Also the models.

WHXX01 KMIA 281253
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1253 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 1200 080629 0000 080629 1200 080630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 124.4W 15.2N 126.1W 15.7N 127.9W 16.4N 129.9W
BAMD 14.4N 124.4W 15.0N 126.1W 15.4N 127.9W 15.8N 129.9W
BAMM 14.4N 124.4W 15.0N 126.0W 15.4N 127.6W 15.8N 129.6W
LBAR 14.4N 124.4W 15.0N 125.6W 15.8N 127.2W 16.8N 129.1W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 37KTS 35KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 37KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 1200 080701 1200 080702 1200 080703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 132.1W 17.8N 137.2W 18.5N 141.6W 19.4N 144.4W
BAMD 16.1N 132.0W 16.5N 136.3W 16.8N 140.2W 17.7N 142.8W
BAMM 16.2N 131.8W 16.7N 136.4W 17.0N 140.4W 18.0N 143.1W
LBAR 17.7N 131.4W 19.6N 135.5W 22.9N 138.3W 29.0N 136.4W
SHIP 33KTS 25KTS 22KTS 22KTS
DSHP 33KTS 25KTS 22KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 124.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 123.0W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 121.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 281432
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
1500 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 129.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.0N 131.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 139.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 143.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

662
WTPZ33 KNHC 281434
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
CRISTINA OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1115 MILES...1795 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...124.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

WTPZ43 KNHC 281437
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1018Z NOAA-18 AMSU-B MICROWAVE
OVERPASS REVEAL IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND AN EARLIER 0358Z QUIKSCAT PASS
THAT DEPICTED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS CRISTINA CONTINUES TO
MOVE WITHIN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND OVER COOLER WATER WITHIN
THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF CRISTINA IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW FILLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...A
TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 14.4N 124.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 127.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 129.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 131.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 139.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 143.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

Its odd how they are both forecast to move north and then dead west on the 15N line.

[Cyclone1]

I wonder if there's a chance for a fujiwhara interaction.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Up to 40 kts.

002
WHXX01 KMIA 281856
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA (EP032008) 20080628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 1800 080629 0600 080629 1800 080630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 125.0W 15.2N 126.6W 15.7N 128.3W 16.2N 130.4W
BAMD 14.5N 125.0W 15.0N 126.8W 15.4N 128.7W 15.6N 130.8W
BAMM 14.5N 125.0W 15.0N 126.6W 15.2N 128.4W 15.5N 130.4W
LBAR 14.5N 125.0W 15.1N 126.4W 15.8N 128.2W 16.7N 130.3W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 42KTS 39KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 42KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 132.7W 17.2N 137.5W 17.6N 141.7W 18.0N 145.6W
BAMD 15.8N 132.9W 15.9N 137.2W 16.2N 141.2W 17.1N 144.7W
BAMM 15.7N 132.6W 15.8N 136.9W 16.2N 140.9W 17.0N 144.9W
LBAR 17.5N 132.7W 19.2N 137.0W 21.9N 140.1W 26.2N 140.8W
SHIP 35KTS 25KTS 24KTS 22KTS
DSHP 35KTS 25KTS 24KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 125.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 123.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 122.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Well for the first time its managed to wrap convection around the western quadrant of the system to a decent extent, indeed right now it looks a little better then Boris in terms of structure and doesn't appear to be quite so heavily sheared at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]