Tropical Depression Cristina in EPAC

[wyq614]

Farther from land. SSD has given it a T1.0, but nothing on NRL yet.
11.8N 116.9W

[KWT]

Nice big burst of convection there wyq614 though the big question would have to be whether or not it will sustain itself like that for any length of time.

[Chacor]

This isn't an official invest, for what it's worth. ATCF does not have a 95E file and it's not up on NRL. This should probably go in Talkin' Tropics until it gets officially designated (then again, from the way it looks, it will probably be designated soon).

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261145
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

I'm still not seeing this on ATCF, although I do expect it to appear at this 12z update, or at the very least the 18z one. Looks decent enough and it's in the TWO, so not to have an invest on it to run models would be quite unbelievable.

[cycloneye]

Chacor,is a matter of time as also SSD has it.

26/1200 UTC 11.8N 118.2W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

SSD is unofficial and usually gives systems it's doing sat fixes on numbers. These numbers aren't official. They've only used 95 here because it's the next number in the list. 95E is not yet on ATCF so isn't an official invest area just yet.

[KWT]

To be honest given the deep convection present with it I would expect it will be tagged 95E before the days out I'd have thought unless convection dies away before then of course!

[Chacor]

I don't disagree but I think it shouldn't be treated like an official invest until it's one. Put it this way, if this was an official invest we would have model runs on it. We haven't yet.

Should be an invest at 18z hopefully.

[Derek Ortt]

its labeled 95E at the NHC satellite website as well.

Not really sure why one is not in the ATCF. Seems inconsistent

[Chacor]

Isn't the NHC satellite page feed from the SSD? That would certainly explain it, if SAB have a floater over "their" 95E.

[Derek Ortt]

the satellites are from SSD

However, the links page http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml is an NHC page

That's why I am a bit confused. Maybe there were some technical issues with the ATCF for this system or something. I am not sure

[Chacor]

I mean the feed. If SSD updates a floater to say 95E, I would think that since NHC's sat page is to the SSD's floaters, it would update with the same page feed that the SSD uses (i.e. the NHC would not have control over what appears on the sat page).

This has caused confusion in the past when the SSD have messed up the floaters and this was reflected on the NHC sat page, if I recall correctly.

[HURAKAN]

At this point it "LOOKS" better than 94E.

[Meso]

There looks to be quite a lot of moisture around..Wouldn't be surprised if once one gets going if it manages to wrap up a lot of cloud and become a rather large sized storm.The EURO model had 94E being fairly large on one run.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree right now 95E does look a little better then 94E does but still its hard to know exactly where about its at. Looking at the loops any circulation is at the northern end of that convection with most of the convection on the S and W side of the circulation.

[cycloneye]

709
ABPZ20 KNHC 261745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Is now official.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep952008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200806261829
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2008, DB, O, 2008062618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952008
EP, 95, 2008062618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1196W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 261844
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952008) 20080626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080626 1800 080627 0600 080627 1800 080628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 119.4W 12.6N 121.3W 13.1N 123.3W 13.7N 125.2W
BAMD 12.0N 119.4W 12.7N 121.2W 13.3N 123.0W 13.9N 124.7W
BAMM 12.0N 119.4W 12.6N 121.3W 13.2N 123.1W 13.8N 124.8W
LBAR 12.0N 119.4W 12.9N 121.4W 14.1N 123.5W 15.4N 125.3W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080628 1800 080629 1800 080630 1800 080701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 126.9W 16.2N 130.7W 18.5N 135.7W 21.0N 140.9W
BAMD 14.4N 126.5W 15.9N 131.1W 19.5N 136.6W 26.3N 138.5W
BAMM 14.4N 126.5W 15.8N 130.6W 18.3N 136.0W 21.8N 140.7W
LBAR 16.7N 126.8W 19.6N 129.4W 23.2N 132.0W 28.1N 132.3W
SHIP 52KTS 49KTS 38KTS 26KTS
DSHP 52KTS 49KTS 38KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 119.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 117.3W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 115.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 262351
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
15 MPH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE