Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

[KWT]

I agree tampagod I think it may well be a tropical depression, convective coverage has finally increased in a big way and I think its got enough to be a tropical depression, the Sat.estimates are at 1.5 as well which supports a TD I think?

[cycloneye]

I agree tampagod I think it may well be a tropical depression, convective coverage has finally increased in a big way and I think its got enough to be a tropical depression, the Sat.estimates are at 1.5 as well which supports a TD I think?

What about 2.0/2.0?

01/1800 UTC 15.2N 106.4W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

[KWT]

Well if thats the case then surely the NHC is going to upgrade to a TD next advisory surely?
As long as its got a closed circulation there is no reason why it shouldn't be upgraded.

[RattleMan]

Third TCFA :

WTPN21 PHNC 012030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301851Z JUN 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 302000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 105.8W TO 19.2N 111.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 012000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 106.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 011618Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15 KNOTS NEAR THE
CENTER, WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER EDGES. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH
A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO EAST PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS MAKE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI-
CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 022030Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

As Sandy said two days ago,it was too early to issue the first TCFA at that time.But today its justified as the system looks much better than two days ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

tropical depression. As far as I can tell!

[KWT]

Agreed Matt I see no reason now in holding back I would expect the next package we shall have out next tropcial depression in the EPAC.

[HURAKAN]

Still a very large system and although the LLC is clearly discernable, it's still broad. Nonetheless, this is the best the disturbance has looked.

[cycloneye]

TD tonight or on Wednesday.


ABPZ20 KNHC 012336
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 1145
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Highest alert pretty much now. Probably about 9-18 hours away from a TD.

[Chacor]

Cloud tops actually appear to have warmed, but there's a new fresh burst of -80 C convection.

[curtadams]

Should go straight to TS. The last Quickscat had multiple uncontaminated 40 kt+ measurements in several different areas.

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

NONAME!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[RL3AO]

Not surprising.

[RL3AO]

30kts/1006mb

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FOUR (EP042008) 20080702 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000 080703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 106.8W 16.8N 107.8W 17.5N 108.7W 17.8N 109.8W
BAMD 15.7N 106.8W 16.8N 108.1W 17.7N 109.3W 18.0N 110.7W
BAMM 15.7N 106.8W 17.0N 108.0W 17.9N 109.1W 18.3N 110.5W
LBAR 15.7N 106.8W 16.6N 107.9W 17.6N 109.2W 18.4N 110.7W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 41KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 0000 080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 110.9W 17.8N 113.4W 16.7N 115.4W 15.8N 115.5W
BAMD 18.2N 112.3W 17.8N 116.1W 17.0N 120.3W 16.4N 123.4W
BAMM 18.4N 111.9W 17.8N 115.3W 16.8N 118.4W 15.9N 120.3W
LBAR 19.2N 112.3W 21.3N 115.4W 23.6N 118.2W 26.1N 119.3W
SHIP 41KTS 28KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 41KTS 28KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 106.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 105.9W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 105.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Ad Novoxium]

NHC advisories are out. It has begun.

ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2008

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO
PUERTO VALLARTA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 020232
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2008

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO
PUERTO VALLARTA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 020240
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO
PUERTO VALLARTA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 520 MILES...835 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINBANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

151
WTPZ44 KNHC 020244
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008

ASCAT DATA AT AROUND 16Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAD A BROAD CENTER ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SOMEWHAT
CONSOLIDATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATION. BASED ON
THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS THE OBSERVED WINDS IN THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE
RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH KEEP THE
CYCLONE ALIVE FOR 5 DAYS...FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
48-72 HR AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE UKMET AND GFS UNTIL THEIR MODEL CYCLONES DISSIPATE NEAR 96
HR. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE
FIRST 24 HR AS THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WITH WITH FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 36-48 HR. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS
FORECAST INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72-96 HR. SHOULD THIS
VERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS IN A BAND THAT IS CURRENTLY
ABOUT 200 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUERTO
VALLARTA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS IN CASE IT COMES CLOSER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST OR THE WIND FIELD IS LARGER THAN FORECAST.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.9N 107.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 107.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 109.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN