Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep962008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200806291556
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2008, DB, O, 2008062912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962008
EP, 96, 2008062812, , BEST, 0, 100N, 920W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2008062818, , BEST, 0, 104N, 933W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2008062900, , BEST, 0, 107N, 942W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2008062906, , BEST, 0, 110N, 947W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2008062912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 950W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

There is still a lot of work to do before becoming a TD.

[Cyclenall]

I think it can consolidate quite nicely into "Doug" soon enough.

[RL3AO]

Boris Disco

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS ABSORBS BORIS INTO THE NEW
DISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD DISCOURAGE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY.

BY DAY 3...BORIS SHOULD BE A
REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FORECAST AN EASTWARD TURN ASSUMING THAT BORIS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEW DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This must be one hell of a big distrabance to eat Boris, because Boris is over 10 degree's or around 500-600 miles across with its clouds. WOW.

[KWT]

Very broad looking circulation right now and as has been said I think its a good 2 days away from being a system, still whilst broad the circulation is clearly easy to see.

As for Boris, I'm not sure we have to see, this disturbance is big and as Boris weakens into a remaining low then it may get dragged into the broader circulation of this. Equally boris may end up escaping too far west who knows.

ECM still developing this system.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 291732
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 685 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA
CENTERED ABOUT 1290 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTWEST.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

319
WHXX01 KMIA 291824
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1824 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 1800 080630 0600 080630 1800 080701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 97.0W 12.5N 99.3W 13.4N 101.6W 14.5N 104.0W
BAMD 11.5N 97.0W 12.5N 99.5W 13.7N 102.1W 14.7N 104.5W
BAMM 11.5N 97.0W 12.5N 99.6W 13.6N 102.2W 14.5N 104.7W
LBAR 11.5N 97.0W 12.5N 99.3W 13.8N 101.7W 15.2N 103.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800 080704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 106.1W 17.6N 109.9W 18.4N 112.6W 18.8N 115.3W
BAMD 15.8N 106.8W 18.0N 110.6W 19.3N 114.3W 20.2N 118.7W
BAMM 15.5N 107.1W 17.3N 110.9W 18.0N 113.9W 18.2N 117.1W
LBAR 16.4N 106.1W 19.0N 109.9W 21.5N 112.6W 24.2N 114.5W
SHIP 61KTS 64KTS 58KTS 53KTS
DSHP 61KTS 64KTS 58KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 286DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[KWT]

Looks like the SHIPS are forecasting pretty rapid development with this system, I suspect its broad nature right now will mean any development whilst steady will probably not occur all that quickly. Its got a good looking circulation though so development will likely occur.

[cycloneye]

Slowly but surely 96E is consolidating.This is going to be a big tropical cyclone in terms of total area covered.

[MGC]

Give it anther day or so for the convection to consolidate. Might even become the first hurricane of the season.....MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Give it anther day or so for the convection to consolidate. Might even become the first hurricane of the season.....MGC

Boris is taking a nice shot at that first hurricane title!

[cycloneye]

Floater 3 is on top of 96E.

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 96E.

[HURAKAN]

The TCFA seems to have been issued too early in my opinion.

[RattleMan]

And the text:

WTPN21 PHNC 292000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
235 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 96.7W TO 14.8N 105.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TURNING. A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS EVIDENT IN A 291155Z PARTIAL QUIKSCAT IMAGE WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER; HOWEVER, VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291426Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A MORE
ELONGATED LLCC WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING. THE SAME QUIKSCAT IMAGE
ALSO INDICATES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH COMBINED RADIAL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE
TO PHYSICAL SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302000Z.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[CycloneNL]

Maybe this can give problems on the coast of mexico....

[cycloneye]

362
ABPZ20 KNHC 292349
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA CENTERED
ABOUT 1345 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SPRAWLING DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN