Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

#41 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 5:11 pm

No depression yet. Convection has to concentrate more near the circulation center. It is a big disturbance so it will take some time to organize. By tomorrow perhaps.....MGC

#42 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:08 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 30 2008

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N98W MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS NO BANDING TYPE
FEATURES HAVE FORMED...AND THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER AT THE PRESENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS PERSISTENT AS SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N107W TO
17N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. THIS SYSTEM DOES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION
PER MODEL GUIDACNE.

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:42 pm

322
ABPZ20 KNHC 302340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 980 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CRISTINA...CENTERED ABOUT 1585 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS BUT
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #44 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:59 pm

Looking much better organized, with convection starting to wrap. Maybe a depression in the next 24 hours.

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:01 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 010100
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080701 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 0000 080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 105.0W 13.9N 106.2W 14.9N 107.2W 16.2N 108.3W
BAMD 13.0N 105.0W 13.7N 106.7W 14.5N 108.2W 15.4N 109.6W
BAMM 13.0N 105.0W 13.7N 106.5W 14.7N 107.9W 15.6N 109.2W
LBAR 13.0N 105.0W 13.8N 107.2W 14.8N 109.3W 15.9N 111.5W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 48KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 48KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 0000 080704 0000 080705 0000 080706 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 108.8W 18.6N 110.5W 18.3N 113.2W 16.9N 115.7W
BAMD 16.3N 110.8W 16.7N 112.9W 15.9N 115.2W 15.3N 117.9W
BAMM 16.7N 110.1W 17.2N 111.6W 16.6N 113.6W 16.1N 115.9W
LBAR 16.9N 113.5W 18.9N 116.9W 20.8N 119.8W 22.3N 122.6W
SHIP 58KTS 52KTS 45KTS 45KTS
DSHP 58KTS 52KTS 45KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 102.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 99.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:48 pm

Looks a little more organized but still is broad.

#47 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:49 pm

Or maybe it has a very large eye!!! :lol:

KWT · #48 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 4:44 am

Yep still ttoo broad to be a TD IMO but it is slowly gaining more convective coverage which means its moving in the right direction for development.

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 5:26 am

Getting a bit more concentrated this morning.TD later today?

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:56 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 011155
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

#51 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 7:57 am

01/1200 UTC 14.4N 106.6W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

#52 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:01 am

WHXX01 KMIA 011259
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080701 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 106.4W 15.7N 107.6W 16.6N 108.7W 17.4N 109.4W
BAMD 14.9N 106.4W 15.9N 108.2W 16.7N 109.9W 17.3N 111.4W
BAMM 14.9N 106.4W 15.9N 108.1W 16.7N 109.5W 17.3N 110.8W
LBAR 14.9N 106.4W 16.1N 107.9W 17.2N 109.5W 18.2N 111.1W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 1200 080705 1200 080706 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 110.3W 18.5N 112.6W 18.0N 115.5W 17.1N 118.8W
BAMD 17.3N 113.0W 16.6N 116.1W 15.3N 119.5W 14.3N 122.9W
BAMM 17.4N 112.0W 17.1N 114.4W 16.2N 116.9W 15.6N 119.8W
LBAR 19.0N 112.7W 20.5N 116.0W 22.2N 119.0W 24.2N 121.5W
SHIP 44KTS 34KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 106.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 105.4W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 102.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

CycloneNL · #53 Postby **CycloneNL** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:27 am

25kts - 1007mb

Chacor · #54 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 9:18 am

Can't be too far off now.

PTrackerLA · #55 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:08 pm

This one looks to be well on its way. Will be interesting to follow as it might threaten Cabo possibly spoiling vacation plans for many this holiday weekend.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:41 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 011733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BORIS...CENTERED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

#57 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:44 pm

Poor EPac. It had all the attention until 92L formed.

#58 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:54 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 011852
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1852 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080701 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1800 080702 0600 080702 1800 080703 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 106.4W 16.6N 107.2W 17.7N 107.9W 18.3N 108.7W
BAMD 15.4N 106.4W 16.5N 107.9W 17.4N 109.2W 17.9N 110.6W
BAMM 15.4N 106.4W 16.6N 107.7W 17.6N 108.8W 18.0N 110.0W
LBAR 15.4N 106.4W 16.6N 107.3W 17.7N 108.5W 18.6N 109.8W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 37KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 37KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1800 080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 110.0W 18.9N 113.0W 17.7N 115.5W 16.7N 116.4W
BAMD 18.1N 112.3W 17.7N 115.9W 16.8N 119.9W 16.3N 123.4W
BAMM 18.2N 111.5W 17.5N 114.5W 16.4N 117.3W 15.6N 119.1W
LBAR 19.3N 111.2W 20.8N 114.1W 23.1N 116.5W 25.2N 117.6W
SHIP 40KTS 30KTS 21KTS 23KTS
DSHP 40KTS 30KTS 21KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 106.4W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 105.7W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 104.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

KWT · #59 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 3:17 pm

Looking at the Sat.images I think this is close to being a tropical depression now with really good coverage of deep convection, though I note the SHIPS only takes this upto 42kts now.

Tampa_God · #60 Postby **Tampa_God** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 4:20 pm

I'm surprised this is still being considered a invest. Even though it looks like convention has decreased alittle, the convection is more centralized to the center that it has ever been so far. I would atleast consider this a 30 mph TD

Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC=New TCFA issued

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC=New TCFA issued

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC=New TCFA issued

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 96E in EPAC

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