Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

[KWT]

Yep and they forecast it will be gone in 24hrs, I think it may be gone even before then looking at the way this system has decayed.

[cycloneye]

734
WTPZ24 KNHC 031440
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 112.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 113.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Stick a fork in him - he's done.

[KWT]

Yep I think this system is finished as well and will be gone for good sooner or later unless it stages a comeback even more amazing then that of Boris the other day!

[HURAKAN]

I really don't know why Avila didn't just killed Douglas in the latest advisory. I mean, is this a tropical depression?

[KWT]

Yeah I think sometimes the forecasting agencies are a little slow in killing off these systems, its just a left over low now looking at that image there.

[Tampa_God]

Baja should be geting some nice waves though.....

[HURAKAN]

Dead Douglas.

[KWT]

Actually its a nice left over circulation to be fair, still looks like its got a fairly tight circulation with it despite obviously weakening.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 032032
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

QUIKSCAT DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION SUGGEST THAT DOUGLAS WAS
PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD HAVE BEEN 35 KNOTS INSTEAD OF THE 30 KT ESTIMATED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND IT IS NOW ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
PROBABLY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. NEVERTHELESS... DOUGLAS IS
OVER COOL WATERS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CLOUD SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO
THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.7N 110.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Interesting cycloneye I think that snippet about the 35kts in the discussion is pretty much stating that come post season they are going to up the winds for that advisory in the best track.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory:

WTPZ34 KNHC 040232
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

...DOUGLAS DECAYING INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
14 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...
45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMAINS OF DOUGLAS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.0 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

See ya in 2014 Douglas!