Tropical Depression Douglas in EPAC

[HURAKAN]

[Ad Novoxium]

I think they're underplaying this one. Personally, I think this will become Douglas in two advisories, and, if you ask me, the depression looks to the point where I could say this will likely become something, maybe a high end Category 1. Far as I'm seeing, conditions aren't looking nominal for a Category 2 Douglas, but the possibility exists.

I'd say...70% chance at TS within four advisories, and a 30% chance of this ultimately becoming a hurricane. Of that 30%, 25% says C1 peak, and 5% says C2. Everything else has <1% chance.

Note: What is in this post is not an official forecast and should not be taken as one. Please see official forecasts. This is just my prediction, and I am not a professional met.

[Chacor]

WTPZ34 KNHC 020831
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
TO PUERTO VALLARTA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 465 MILES
...750 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINBANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

154
WTPZ44 KNHC 020831
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHING
DEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE BANDS DO NOT YET WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND THE
CENTER TO CLASSIFY THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM VIA THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY EVEN THOUGH AN
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A BROAD AND NOT
PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER. I AM HOLDING OFF ON UPGRADING
FOUR-E ON THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
MODESTLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM WATERS AND MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY. WITHIN 36-48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT NEARS MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

SINCE THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED THERE IS A SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN
USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION. THE LATTER
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO
MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO SLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL AND U.K.
MET OFFICE FORECAST TRACKS THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND FOLLOWS THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 16.6N 107.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.2N 107.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 17.9N 108.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.6N 109.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 19.1N 110.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 19.8N 111.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Well after quite a while 96E has finally been upgraded to TD4-E, looking good right now and probably isn't all that far away from being a tropical storm I suspect with two deep lobes of convection, maybe just need to consolidate those two regions of convection a little better but slowly getting more organised.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm 4E
2:30am pst
7-2-2008


Winds 40 mph
Pressure 1005 millibars
movement west-northwest at 285 degrees at 6 knots...
location 17.2/107.8


TD appears to be a tropical storm...


Latest quickscat shows 35-40 knot winds to the northeast of the LLC, also this system has formed some impressive minus 80-85 cloud tops over the last few hours. So it is very likely now a tropical storm. My latest unoffical "t" number is near 2.8 based on IR satellite and a developing Cdo feature with banding forming around most of the quads. We are setting the winds at 35 knots/40 mph based on the above. The sst's under the system are warm enough to support cyclone development for the next 24 hours, but then after it should be entering cooler waters, so expect then for a weakening. Upper level shear also appears weak and could support a strengthing to up to 45 knots by 12-24 hours before it hits the cooler water. Forecast track is for the system to remain on a west-northwest track through the next 24 hours, and then followed by a westward track as the system weakens into weak low by 36 hours.

Forecast
0 17.2/107.7 35 knots
6 17.4/108.2 40 knots
12 17.5/108.8 45 knots
24 17.6/109.4 45 knots
36 17.5/110.7 30 knots


[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Very quick to weaken trhis system in your forecast Matt. i'm two minds about this being a TS, I think there is enough there to be upgraded but I still would like if the convection could be just a little tighter then what it is.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Its interesting little storm there is some banding present now with those two lumps of convection, maybe not all that impressive but it does seem to be present looking at that image there Hurakan.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2008 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 16:37:00 N Lon : 107:24:57 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.6 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -32.5C Cloud Region Temp : -43.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[KWT]

Hmm yep its very close Hurakan using that, just sums up what I mean by being close, it could go either way, the NHC will either just want to see a tiny bit of improvement or they may decide thats close enough to where it needs to be and upgrade it anyway.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2008 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 16:47:00 N Lon : 107:34:07 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.7 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -60.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in BLACK
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.60 ARC in BLACK
at Lat: 17:10:48 N Lon: 107:45:36 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Chacor]

Definitely pretty close now. Douglas at the next advisory isn't impossible.

[KWT]

Well now we are at 2.5 and not even rounded up then I think that come the next advisory then we will indeed get tropical storm Douglas.

[Chacor]

They're coming thick and fast in the EPac.

EP, 04, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1077W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 60, 60, 0, 1009, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D,

[KWT]

Yep so its going to be upgraded to tropical storm Douglas next advisory, hardly surprising given the 2.5 estimate just recently and the good convective structure it has.

[Chacor]

TAFB T2.5; SAB T2.0. I think the ADT T2.5 made the difference here.

[KWT]

Yep I suspect thats the case Chacor, two agencies vs 1 then really isn't it so the majority is the winner it seems!

[Chacor]

363
WTPZ34 KNHC 021454
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 380
MILES...610 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DOUGLAS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS AND PUERTO
VALLARTA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...107.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 021453
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 109.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[KWT]

Hmmm forecasted to reach 50kts, if it can just join the two different areas of convection together then it has a chance to develop a little stronger then is progged.