TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

[space_thrilla]

THAT IS MY WAVE!!! I SAW IT FIRST! I AM LOVING MY WAVE!!

[Chacor]

An INVEST immediately as it comes off the coast? Looks pretty impressive, too.

[HURAKAN]

Looking amazing!!

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

For those who didnt saw the 2 AM TWO here it is.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

An INVEST immediately as it comes off the coast? Looks pretty impressive, too.

I guess with this much models consensus NHC has to think it will develop. Should be a fish storm thankfullly.

[ronjon]

Latest SAT from NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[Eyewall]

I do not know about all that fish storm talk but depression by tomorrow yes.

[Eyewall]

My news station here wdsu for the second day in a row has talked about this wave. Looks like the media is on to this one early.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
WAS ADDED TO THE 01/06Z ANALYSIS ALONG 16W/17W S OF 18N
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS SITUATED
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N...VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. as the ESPN commentators would say in basket-ball " DUNK YOU VERY MUCH" (lol tkank you very much):cheesy:...i was talking about surprises in store in most of my replies, here is our guest....
Amazing sat pic appearence, the next 24 h will be interresting, models have been consistent, wait and see what will happens...

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE JUL 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT 1026 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MULTIPLE TROPICAL WAVES AS PER SATELLITE ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC /ALONG
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES NORTH/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT REFLECTION NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OFF THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
THE LOCAL WIND AFFECT. LAST NIGHT\S SOUNDING AT TJSJ /30/00Z/
REVEALS DRIER AIR LAYER /SAHARAN AIR LAYER OR SAL/ JUST ABOVE
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT A FAIRLY NICE DAY TOMORROW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY DIURNALLY-INDUCED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...PARTLY
CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S.V.I. THIS DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF PUERTO RICO...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY PROPAGATES TO THE WEST.

INTERESTINGLY...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS EXITED THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AS PER IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH DISCERNIBLE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN VORT MAXES IS LOOKING FAIRLY PROMISING. WILL DEFER TO
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES BEFORE MAKING ANY PREDICTIONS THIS FAR
OUT IN ADVANCE AS TO THE DIRECTION OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG ENE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO TJPS AND
TJMZ BETWEEN 16Z-23Z...BUT OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 40 40 40 20
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 30 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

04/02/

[Hyperstorm]

I've been on this board for years and the people that have seen me around know that I usually post when I see something interesting going on. Why get sensitive when someone disagrees with you, especially if they've explained their position with current satellite analysis/forecast models and not climatology?

Yesterday's satellite images were not lying. This system is a VERY strong system for any time of the year. Sometimes you cannot look at what the previous waves do in an area or the time of the year. You have to look at CURRENT conditions and current satellite images. The images showed a well-defined low pressure system with explosive convection as it moved off the coast...very ominous signs of Cape Verde developers as I mentioned yesterday. Where is the wave now? Over the water and not inland. How strong is it? Not your typical June/July wave...

Latest satellite images show an explosion of deep thunderstorms right over the main "center" over the water! SSTs are warm where the system is at and a depression may be closer than some think...

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

411
ABNT20 KNHC 011159
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[drezee]

There is a large outflow boundary coming from the system from about 12N to 18N. It is moving FAST.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Are we looking at Bertha reincarnated here?

[Thunder44]

Interesting they put an invest on this one so quickly. I guess it because the GFS has been forming something out there. But I wouldn't be suprised at all if it falls apart later today.

[cycloneye]