Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[HURAKAN]

223
WHXX01 KWBC 140022
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0022 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080714 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000 080715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 63.1W 31.6N 63.9W 33.2N 64.4W 35.0N 64.7W
BAMD 30.3N 63.1W 31.4N 64.3W 33.0N 65.4W 35.1N 65.8W
BAMM 30.3N 63.1W 31.4N 64.1W 33.0N 64.7W 35.0N 64.7W
LBAR 30.3N 63.1W 31.4N 63.6W 33.0N 63.9W 34.6N 63.8W
SHIP 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS 55KTS
DSHP 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080716 0000 080717 0000 080718 0000 080719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.6N 64.4W 36.9N 64.7W 33.5N 66.0W 29.3N 66.4W
BAMD 37.4N 64.9W 39.7N 62.8W 37.7N 61.9W 34.1N 60.6W
BAMM 36.8N 63.9W 37.3N 63.0W 33.7N 62.8W 29.4N 60.1W
LBAR 36.6N 63.6W 40.3N 61.9W 41.0N 56.4W 42.2N 50.7W
SHIP 54KTS 54KTS 60KTS 52KTS
DSHP 54KTS 54KTS 60KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.3N LONCUR = 63.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 29.8N LONM12 = 62.6W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 29.9N LONM24 = 62.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNN

[sueragingroz]

:uarrow: Wow, I know that Bermuda is built for open ocean storms... but 3 (or more?) days of battering from Bertha would suck the spirit of anyone!

Hi - Newbie here who hails from Bermuda.

It hasn't been so bad. We had a wicked 4 hours or so starting at 3:30 after the eye remnants or whatever they were passed us.

It was a weird day. Actually sunny around noon or so and then we got slammed at 3:30 until around 7 when things started to calm down.

The sun is out now.. Some foliage is down but not much... the big worry is the beaches because the pounding surf is scraping them clean.

I would have done some body surfing but the storm kicked up lion fish and Portuguese man-o-war so I took a pass.

I just want to know why the BAMM model has it coming back and smacking us in the face yet again!

[HURAKAN]

Welcome to the Forum and good to hear that there wasn't major damage.

[HURAKAN]

544
WHXX01 KWBC 151819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080715 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 0600 080716 1800 080717 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.2N 62.5W 37.2N 61.9W 37.2N 62.1W 36.5N 62.7W
BAMD 36.2N 62.5W 37.4N 61.3W 37.1N 60.7W 36.1N 60.4W
BAMM 36.2N 62.5W 37.2N 61.8W 37.3N 61.6W 36.7N 61.8W
LBAR 36.2N 62.5W 37.4N 61.2W 38.0N 60.7W 37.7N 60.2W
SHIP 60KTS 60KTS 61KTS 62KTS
DSHP 60KTS 60KTS 61KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 1800 080719 1800 080720 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.2N 63.7W 31.5N 65.1W 30.2N 66.8W 30.5N 69.0W
BAMD 35.0N 59.9W 34.8N 56.0W 36.1N 49.0W 36.3N 42.5W
BAMM 35.6N 62.3W 32.9N 62.2W 32.1N 62.5W 32.9N 64.2W
LBAR 37.4N 59.3W 37.2N 56.1W 38.9N 49.5W 42.2N 42.5W
SHIP 65KTS 63KTS 55KTS 46KTS
DSHP 65KTS 63KTS 55KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.2N LONCUR = 62.5W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 34.3N LONM12 = 63.5W DIRM12 = 20DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 32.6N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Still holding at 60kts though its interesting to note that the SHIPS actually slightly strengthening it back to a hurricane again by 48hrs time as it dips back SE.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      BERTHA  AL022008  07/15/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    60    60    60    61    61    62    65    63    63    57    55    49    46
V (KT) LAND       60    60    60    61    61    62    65    63    63    57    55    49    46
V (KT) LGE mod    60    60    59    58    58    60    63    65    65    63    59    55    51

SHEAR (KTS)        5    12    11     7    10    20    16    15    13    24    10    12    21
SHEAR DIR        231   264   292   318   322   322   289   268   241   253   279   289   270
SST (C)         26.1  25.9  25.8  25.9  26.0  26.5  26.9  26.5  25.8  25.2  24.7  23.1  20.9
POT. INT. (KT)   114   111   109   111   112   118   122   118   112   107   104    93    83
ADJ. POT. INT.    94    91    90    92    93    98   101    99    96    92    89    81    74
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     6     5     5     5     6     6     6     5     5     3     1     0
700-500 MB RH     49    52    54    56    55    52    48    51    52    49    50    46    40
GFS VTEX (KT)     17    18    19    20    20    21    22    22    22    20    22    20    20
850 MB ENV VOR   -96   -66   -37    -8    41   122   158   133   116    65    36    91   100
200 MB DIV        22    36    20    22    38    36    33    -6    48   -12     3     0    20
LAND (KM)        850   841   835   896   958  1127  1267  1312  1266  1111   963   841   766
LAT (DEG N)     36.2  36.5  36.7  36.3  35.9  34.7  34.0  34.2  35.3  36.8  38.6  40.6  42.7
LONG(DEG W)     62.5  61.9  61.3  60.8  60.2  59.0  57.4  55.6  53.5  51.2  48.9  46.9  45.2
STM SPEED (KT)     7     5     5     6     7     7     7     9    11    12    13    13    12
HEAT CONTENT       0     0     0     0     0     5     9     5     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10      CX,CY:   4/  9
  T-12 MAX WIND:  60            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  552  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  13.3 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  94.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   8.  10.  11.  11.  12.  12.  12.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -15.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   1.   2.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE      -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   4.   4.   5.   0.  -2.  -8. -12.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   5.   3.   3.  -3.  -5. -11. -14.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008     BERTHA 07/15/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.1 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  27.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  32.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  65.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   0.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    17% is   1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008     BERTHA 07/15/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY           

[KWT]

Looks like the SST's really drop away after 96hrs, I'd expect the NHC will soon mention the chances of ET transition occuring by day 5 soon in their forecasts.

[HURAKAN]

462
WHXX01 KWBC 181234
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080718 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 53.0W 37.5N 50.7W 39.0N 47.8W 40.2N 44.3W
BAMD 35.5N 53.0W 37.8N 49.9W 40.2N 46.5W 42.6N 42.5W
BAMM 35.5N 53.0W 37.4N 50.4W 39.0N 47.4W 40.7N 43.5W
LBAR 35.5N 53.0W 37.7N 50.3W 40.1N 47.7W 42.5N 44.7W
SHIP 55KTS 59KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 55KTS 59KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.2N 40.5W 43.6N 33.4W 44.1N 26.7W 41.9N 21.5W
BAMD 45.5N 37.9W 53.0N 26.7W 60.9N 13.9W 67.3N 7.4W
BAMM 42.4N 38.9W 46.6N 30.0W 50.7N 20.7W 56.1N 12.0W
LBAR 45.5N 41.0W 54.3N 27.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 47KTS 42KTS 26KTS
DSHP 57KTS 47KTS 42KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 33.7N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 79DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 58.9W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN

[AlanKL]

I was on a curise ship that suppose to arrive Monday morning at 7am. Bertha hung around Bermuda just long enough so we lost Monday in Bermuda and arrived Tuesday mnorning. The Bermudian governement closed all the beaches for Tuesday too even though it was beautiful weather there on Tuesday morning. Beach tours were cancelled for the most part and those that tried to snorkel had pretty obscure water views due to the storms' turbulence. Fortunately my wife and I had been too Bermuda before so I had a chance to lose more money in Blackjack on the ship. I believe the captain made a decision in NY that he wasn't going into Bermuda Monday even though he said it was "open possibility." My GPS leaving NYC showed a cruise speed of only 12-13 mph which extrapolates to Tuesday arrival. He would have had to run at 22 MPH at least initially if he thought we might make Monday. He could have been more up-front with us. I just heard that it reformulated into a hurricane. Is that true?