Tropical Depression Five-E in EPAC

[Chacor]

I wouldn't say no Elida, only that Elida isn't forecast. But this system has defied the odds before. When the NHC in its TWO said development was no longer expected, it came back in the very next TWO and eventually became 5-E. I wouldn't rule anything out.

[cycloneye]

Moving inland.

WTPZ35 KNHC 070230
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO
CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR VERY NEAR
LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND
A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

Despite its amazing appearance on IR and VIS, its inner structure under the monsoon trough never got together before making landfall as a 30-kt depression. Loads of heavy rain, no doubt, but it's dead now.

WTPZ25 KNHC 070847
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
0900 UTC MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 102.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 102.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 103.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 102.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[KWT]

Yep it did get looking good at one point but just couldn't make that extra jump up towards tropical storm status which means no Elida just yet.

[Ad Novoxium]

Why do I get this odd feeling that this is going to get upgraded come TCR?

[HURAKAN]

It never got up to 2.5 by Dvorak's standards:

07/0545 UTC 18.3N 102.8W OVERLAND 05E
06/2345 UTC 17.4N 102.0W T1.5/2.0 05E
06/1745 UTC 16.9N 103.6W T2.0/2.0 05E
06/1715 UTC 16.9N 103.6W T2.0/2.0 05E
06/1145 UTC 15.8N 102.6W T2.0/2.0 05E
06/0545 UTC 15.0N 101.7W T1.5/1.5 05E
05/2345 UTC 14.7N 100.3W T1.5/1.5 05E
05/1745 UTC 13.6N 99.7W T1.5/1.5 05E

[Chacor]

Again, as I've said in the past, that's the SSD's fixes. They are no more "official" as a Dvorak fix agency than CIMSS or TAFB are.

However, FWIW, TAFB never went above T2.0 either.

[HURAKAN]

I understand. But the Dvorak estimates are one of the resources available to indicate the intensity of the storms.

[Chacor]

I understand. But the Dvorak estimates are one of the resources available to indicate the intensity of the storms.

Sure, but my point was that your source for fixes, the SSD, is not the only source, nor are they official estimates. You keep referring to "Dvorak's standards". Different agencies or forecasters will interpret data differently. There is no set "standard". That's what I meant.

[HURAKAN]

By "Dvorak Standards" I mean that a tropical storm has to reach 2.5

[cycloneye]

And to reach hurricane by Dvorak it has to be at 4.0.

[Chacor]

I'm not quite getting myself across. I understand what you're trying to say, so perhaps I need to rephrase my statement.

You can't judge it based on only one set of Dvorak numbers from the SSD as there are other agencies with an equivalent standing that also release numbers. However, for this system, the TAFB, which also issues fixes, never went above T2.0 either.

[Mecklenburg]

it's fizzling out

[Cyclenall]

Was Quickscat the only thing that confirmed this as a real tropical cyclone?