Tropical Depression Five-E in EPAC

[KWT]

Of course to be honest I doubt this will become quite as strong as Elida did in 2002...which was a cat-5!
Still looks like its close to tropical depression status now, I'd imagine code red and "tropical depression could form at any time" note to come up soon enough!

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL tracks 97E pararell the Mexican coast in a close way.

WHXX04 KWBC 022332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97E

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.4 93.2 300./ 2.9
6 10.6 94.6 280./14.6
12 10.7 95.2 277./ 6.2
18 11.2 95.7 320./ 6.6
24 12.1 95.9 345./ 8.3
30 12.7 96.5 319./ 9.0
36 12.9 97.0 287./ 5.3
42 13.8 97.0 359./ 8.8
48 14.6 96.9 9./ 8.0
54 14.7 97.5 283./ 5.7
60 15.1 98.1 299./ 7.4
66 15.4 99.1 290./10.1
72 15.5 99.3 294./ 2.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 72 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

313
WHXX01 KMIA 030116
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0116 UTC THU JUL 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972008) 20080703 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080703 0000 080703 1200 080704 0000 080704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 94.0W 10.9N 94.8W 11.6N 95.6W 12.5N 96.4W
BAMD 10.5N 94.0W 10.9N 95.4W 11.5N 96.9W 12.2N 98.4W
BAMM 10.5N 94.0W 11.1N 95.2W 11.9N 96.5W 12.8N 97.7W
LBAR 10.5N 94.0W 11.0N 95.3W 12.1N 97.2W 13.1N 99.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000 080708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 97.2W 15.2N 98.9W 16.5N 100.9W 17.4N 103.1W
BAMD 13.0N 99.9W 14.7N 102.9W 16.3N 105.7W 17.7N 108.9W
BAMM 13.7N 98.9W 15.5N 101.2W 16.9N 103.4W 18.0N 105.8W
LBAR 14.4N 102.2W 17.6N 107.4W 21.2N 111.4W 24.7N 113.2W
SHIP 59KTS 67KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 59KTS 67KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 94.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 93.2W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 92.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just like 92L this is also having a hard time in keeping its convection. Earlier we thought this was going to go for the gold!

[cycloneye]

What happened here? It was well organized yesterday but now this.Maybe some effects from nearby Douglas outflow?

[HURAKAN]

The day before yesterday the system looked good but it collapse only to reorganize again yesterday. I think it will reorganize again today. Lets see what happens.

[KWT]

Well there is land close by I suppose and it may well be feeling some effects of shear from both the outflow of Douglas and also a general area of shear that held back Douglas as well.

[KWT]

Poor old 97E has been totally forgotten about!

There has been some good convective bursts near the center of this invest though through the day the deep convection has slowly drifted northwards toewards central America. Still its a little better on the convective front then it was the earlier today.

[Cyclenall]

This thing looked like it was rapidly forming into a tropical cyclone early Wednesday afternoon with that solid rotation of deep convection. Now something made it just halt.

[KWT]

Still got deep convection near the coast. I think that the shear that hit Douglas dug down and also gave 97E something of a wallop just as it was looking good.

[Chacor]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.

[bob rulz]

We almost had Elida by the 4th of July. That would've been rather impressive.

I guess the key word there is almost. This system looks like toast.

[HURAKAN]

Adios amigo.

629
ABPZ20 KNHC 041720
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SHOW NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Sandy,not so fast

480
ABPZ20 KNHC 042339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 050056
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC SAT JUL 5 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972008) 20080705 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080705 0000 080705 1200 080706 0000 080706 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 97.1W 13.4N 97.7W 14.1N 98.2W 14.6N 98.7W
BAMD 12.7N 97.1W 13.3N 98.8W 13.8N 100.3W 13.9N 101.9W
BAMM 12.7N 97.1W 13.5N 98.2W 14.1N 99.0W 14.4N 99.8W
LBAR 12.7N 97.1W 13.5N 98.6W 14.6N 100.4W 15.5N 102.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080707 0000 080708 0000 080709 0000 080710 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 99.2W 16.3N 100.0W 17.0N 101.5W 17.7N 103.9W
BAMD 14.2N 103.2W 14.9N 105.9W 15.2N 108.8W 15.6N 112.1W
BAMM 14.8N 100.4W 15.7N 101.3W 16.1N 102.6W 16.4N 105.0W
LBAR 16.5N 104.7W 18.8N 109.3W 21.8N 113.3W 25.6N 115.0W
SHIP 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 97.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 96.0W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 95.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[RL3AO]

Very surprised this didn't develop.

[cycloneye]

Making a comeback!

252
ABPZ20 KNHC 051119
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. DESPITE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT
APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[KWT]

Ah now that looks the 97E of old that looked a stone wall developer, anyway looking much better now the deep convection has finally expanded away from the coastal regions and is showing much greater organisation.