Tropical Depression Five-E in EPAC

[HURAKAN]

¡Bienvenido amigo!

764
ABPZ20 KNHC 051720
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO
ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[HURAKAN]

If it's supposed to move NW, then it doesn't have a lot of time before coming ashore.

[RL3AO]

TS Warnings with first advisory then?

[cycloneye]

AXPZ20 KNHC 051545
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N99W...OR ABOUT 230 NM SSE OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 12 HRS OR SO MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AROUND -85C. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 96W-104W. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
DESPITE BEING IMPACTED BY 20-25 KT OF NE/EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE S
SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO. IN FACT...NEW BANDING IS
STARTING TO FORM ON THE SE SIDE OF THE CENTER...MAKING THE
SYSTEM A LITTLE BIT LESS ASYMMETRIC. THERE IS A ZONE OF LIGHTER
SHEAR NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO.

[RL3AO]

No upgrade.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC SAT JUL 5 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972008) 20080705 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080705 1800 080706 0600 080706 1800 080707 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 99.0W 14.8N 99.6W 15.5N 100.0W 16.3N 100.5W
BAMD 14.0N 99.0W 14.6N 100.3W 15.0N 101.3W 15.5N 102.3W
BAMM 14.0N 99.0W 14.8N 99.7W 15.5N 100.1W 16.2N 100.6W
LBAR 14.0N 99.0W 14.9N 100.3W 15.8N 102.2W 16.7N 104.3W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 48KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 48KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080707 1800 080708 1800 080709 1800 080710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 101.1W 17.9N 102.7W 18.7N 104.8W 20.1N 107.9W
BAMD 16.0N 103.5W 16.6N 106.1W 16.9N 109.2W 17.3N 113.2W
BAMM 17.0N 101.4W 17.9N 103.2W 18.6N 105.7W 19.8N 109.1W
LBAR 17.7N 106.6W 20.0N 111.8W 23.0N 116.5W 26.9N 118.1W
SHIP 63KTS 65KTS 61KTS 54KTS
DSHP 63KTS 65KTS 61KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 99.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 97.8W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 96.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued:

802
WTPN21 PGTW 051930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 98.5W TO 16.1N 101.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND INCREASED
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS NEAR THE LLCC. THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE
VERTICAL EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061930Z.//

[RattleMan]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_ep972008_ep052008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807051931
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

First advisory on TD Five-E shortly.

DISTURBANCE FIVE (EP052008)WHXX01 KMIA 051934
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1934 UTC SAT JUL 5 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

20080705 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080705 1800 080706 0600 080706 1800 080707 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 99.0W 15.2N 99.5W 16.0N 99.9W 16.8N 100.2W
BAMD 14.5N 99.0W 15.0N 100.3W 15.5N 101.5W 15.9N 102.5W
BAMM 14.5N 99.0W 15.3N 99.7W 15.9N 100.2W 16.7N 100.8W
LBAR 14.5N 99.0W 15.6N 100.3W 16.5N 102.1W 17.6N 104.2W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080707 1800 080708 1800 080709 1800 080710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 100.9W 18.5N 102.6W 19.4N 104.8W 20.8N 108.1W
BAMD 16.4N 103.8W 16.9N 106.6W 17.1N 110.0W 17.3N 114.2W
BAMM 17.4N 101.5W 18.3N 103.5W 18.8N 106.0W 19.9N 109.4W
LBAR 18.6N 106.4W 21.1N 111.0W 23.9N 115.1W 27.7N 116.3W
SHIP 62KTS 65KTS 60KTS 53KTS
DSHP 62KTS 62KTS 57KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 99.0W DIRCUR = 314DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 97.8W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 96.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[CycloneNL]

Nrl - 05E Noname !

EPAC is going fast this year.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Warning for parts of Mexican coast.

WTPZ32 KNHC 052032
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...SQUALLY WEATHER
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. ONLY A
SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO MAINLY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.5 N...99.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 052033
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE
IS SOME SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS TIME AND APPEARS TO
BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 4
KNOTS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS...ONLY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...3 TO 4 KNOTS...IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST WOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR
ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS...AND ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD
BRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST OR EVEN INLAND. IN FACT...SOME THE
GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
IN A FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST...AND THIS WARNING WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE REVISED LATER ON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.5N 99.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 14.7N 99.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 15.3N 100.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 101.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Category 5]

very hard to make out

[Andrew92]

Not sure I see what SHIPS is seeing. I think this will become Elida but be weak. 40-45 mph at strongest.

However, the bigger concern is flooding if it heads toward land. NEVER ever forget the rain.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

WTPZ35 KNHC 052341
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008

...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING ON TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 150 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.
A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLS ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[MiamiensisWx]

This one holds true potential for very heavy precipitation and mudslides over western Mexico. Diurnal convection and orographic lifting over elevated terrain will aid the potential for a locally dangerous situation. People in western Mexico and rural areas should heed their conscience and remain alert.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC SUN JUL 6 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (EP052008) 20080706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080706 0000 080706 1200 080707 0000 080707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 99.8W 15.4N 99.8W 16.5N 99.9W 17.3N 100.3W
BAMD 14.3N 99.8W 14.9N 101.0W 15.6N 102.0W 16.1N 103.1W
BAMM 14.3N 99.8W 15.2N 100.5W 16.0N 101.1W 16.7N 101.8W
LBAR 14.3N 99.8W 15.1N 101.0W 16.1N 102.6W 17.1N 104.5W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080708 0000 080709 0000 080710 0000 080711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 101.2W 20.0N 103.4W 21.9N 106.5W 24.1N 109.4W
BAMD 16.8N 104.3W 18.0N 107.2W 19.3N 111.3W 20.6N 116.3W
BAMM 17.5N 102.7W 18.9N 104.9W 20.3N 108.1W 22.0N 111.5W
LBAR 18.2N 106.8W 21.0N 111.7W 24.5N 115.9W 28.8N 116.5W
SHIP 52KTS 52KTS 49KTS 44KTS
DSHP 52KTS 52KTS 49KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 99.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 98.4W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 97.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 060235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS A STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THE MONSOON CYCLONES
OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEANS. THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUT 70-80 N
MI FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A SECOND LARGE AREA OF
20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRONG...BUT
DISORGANIZED...CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN 25 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE CENTER IS HARD TO PINPOINT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 315/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD...WITH THE GFS...
UKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR OR WEST OF ACAPULCO...WHILE THE GFDL...
ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
NEAR THE COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK AFTER
SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES BETWEEN THE
GFDL AND THE ECMWF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED JUST ABOUT ANY MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONTO THE MEXICAN
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE
FIRST 24 HR AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES.

UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
PRODUCING 20-25 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS CONDITION TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
72 HR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
THE ONLY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS THE
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 53 KT IN 60 HR.
GIVEN THE SIMILARITY OF THE SYSTEM TO A MONSOON CYCLONE...WHICH CAN
INTENSIFY IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DISSIPATE IF IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.5N 100.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.0N 100.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 100.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.4N 101.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 102.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 104.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Interesting:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS A STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THE MONSOON CYCLONES
OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEANS.