Tropical Depression Five-E in EPAC

[Cyclenall]

Interesting:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS A STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THE MONSOON CYCLONES
OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEANS.

When I saw what it looked like this early evening, I knew it looked like a Wpac typhoon! It was all that strange convection to the south-west of the main body of the cyclone. It's cool that the NHC mentioned it.

[HurricaneRobert]

Wow. The models are showing a really significant cyclone after this one, although this should be Elida.

[senorpepr]

Ensure you've refreshed for the latest maps!


Tropical Depression Five (05E)

Surface Pressure and Plots


Surface Streamlines and Plots


Eastern Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

[wxmann_91]

Honestly, I'd be floored if this was not a TS at least right now.

It looks very impressive.

I dunno how diurnal max induced this convection right now is, but if it persists we might have a pretty intense storm on our hands. It might be aided by frictional convergence from nearby land.

[wxmann_91]

You've gotta admit, this shear map shows something pretty impressive:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 10shr.html

Right entrance region of a strong upper jet situated over the GOM and strong anticyclonic flow (along with an upper trough in the SE) providing multiple outflow channels to the south, west, east, and north.

Sometimes models have a tendency to overdo shear because the outflow environment for the storm is just so intense. This is highly unusual for the EPAC so maybe the models are doing just that. I'd say that in whatever case, I'm throwing out the models and saying that RI is very much possible if it stays away from land.

[Cyclenall]

Honestly, I'd be floored if this was not a TS at least right now.

It looks very impressive.

I dunno how diurnal max induced this convection right now is, but if it persists we might have a pretty intense storm on our hands. It might be aided by frictional convergence from nearby land.

When it was first called a TD, it looked like a 65 knot hurricane by appearance...strange. The evolution of 5-E shows that it isn't a typical Epac system.

[Chacor]

Large swathes of yellow are really uncommon near Mexico.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT INCREASED IN STRENGTH...RAINBANDS ARE
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...

[wxmann_91]

I'm looking at loops and the center is likely very disorganized right now. The LLC might reform under the convection tonight, but the convection needs to survive over the day before sounding any big alarms.

[Chacor]

NRL having major issues now, 05E's disappeared to be replaced by 97E again.

06z:
EP, 05, 2008070606, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1020W, 25, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M,

[Chacor]

WTPZ45 KNHC 060900
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING IN
DETERMINING ITS POSITION AND TRACK. A 0108Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A MUCH FARTHER WEST POSITION
THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY CARRIED. HOWEVER...BOTH THE QUIKSCAT PASS
AND A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS WERE AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS CURRENTLY. THE INTENSITY HAS PERHAPS
BEEN MORE READILY ASSESSED AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND BOTH
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INDICATED.

ASSUMING THAT A CLOSED CENTER EXISTS IN THE CYCLONE...A ROUGH MOTION
VECTOR OF 300/8 IS ANALYZED. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO
THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
JUST SKIRTS THE COAST...WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND AND ADVECT
A MID-LEVEL VORTEX OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS
PROBLEMATIC... HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE RELOCATION THAT WAS
NEEDED EARLIER. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM.

THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
BUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE MAKING MORE THAN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SPIN THE CYCLONE UP TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM...
AND THE HWRF AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH DO NOT INTENSIFY IT. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.7N 102.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 104.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 105.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 108.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 061134
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

...RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUE TO SPREAD ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT
THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CLOSELY
PARALLEL OR MOVE OVER THE COAST TODAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...102.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 061233
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1233 UTC SUN JUL 6 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (EP052008) 20080706 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080706 1200 080707 0000 080707 1200 080708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 102.6W 17.0N 102.4W 17.7N 102.2W 18.2N 102.6W
BAMD 16.0N 102.6W 16.7N 103.9W 17.3N 105.1W 17.9N 106.4W
BAMM 16.0N 102.6W 16.9N 103.2W 17.7N 103.7W 18.3N 104.4W
LBAR 16.0N 102.6W 17.2N 103.9W 18.4N 105.4W 19.7N 107.1W
SHIP 30KTS 41KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 41KTS 50KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080708 1200 080709 1200 080710 1200 080711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 103.3W 20.0N 105.9W 21.4N 109.3W 22.5N 113.0W
BAMD 18.3N 108.0W 19.1N 112.1W 20.1N 117.3W 20.9N 122.3W
BAMM 18.7N 105.3W 19.6N 108.1W 20.5N 111.8W 21.3N 115.7W
LBAR 20.9N 108.9W 23.6N 112.7W 26.4N 115.6W 29.5N 115.8W
SHIP 59KTS 50KTS 36KTS 24KTS
DSHP 59KTS 50KTS 36KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 102.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 100.9W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 98.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Chacor]

Up to 30 kts finally. Still looks good, major burst of yellow:

[Chacor]

900
WTPZ25 KNHC 061439
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO
MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N 103.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.9N 104.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.9N 106.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chacor]

TCCA23 KNHC 061304
STDWCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUL 6 2008


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
6/1215 UTC 16.0N 102.6W 305/08 20.4 IN 17.1 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 11.3 TO 16.1 IN 14.4 TO 17.1 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 4.9 TO 11.0 IN 9.1 TO 13.2 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.4 TO 4.6 IN 0.0 TO 9.6 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.7 IN 0.0 TO 0.0 IN

[KWT]

Ah so I take it our 97E got upgraded when I was gone?!
Well its about time because this system does look pretty decent right now, clearly being sheared but right now shear isn't totally destroying the system and there is deep convection with it.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ35 KNHC 061729
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

...POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
103.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...205 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY-
ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...103.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

It looks like they will not upgrade this never.

[HurricaneRobert]

GFS shows a significant hurricane in this area in 120h, but I assume its after 5-E dissipates. Is it 93E?

[HURAKAN]

Pulsing right now. Strong convection in the morning, now it wanes, and we should see more strong convection next morning.

[cycloneye]

NO ELIDA! Will have to wait.

114
WTPZ45 KNHC 062035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED-
LOOKING AND LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND I HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
LATEST GFDL/HWRF FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.

IT HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE CENTER EVEN WITH VISIBLE
IMAGERY. MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP EITHER. RECENT
VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT TO THE
EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BUT THIS IS NOT YET CERTAIN. HOWEVER
THE CENTER POSITION WAS PULLED BACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS
ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 315/7. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS
TIME. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

AS NOTED EARLIER...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.0N 102.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.5N 103.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 104.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 105.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 109.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH