INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

[Frank2]

It says "93L." No long time readers are going to confuse that with Hurricane Wilma.

Hurricane Wilma? I didn't mention Wilma...

Still, I think it'd be better if admin removed the 93L model track since it might mislead any first time visitors, especially since the media is talking about Wilma, er, Bertha at this time, and, that alone might increase first-time visits to this site - no use getting anyone more confused that everyone already is...

[Decomdoug]

As I understand it, under certain circumstances the TUTT that 93L is going to encounter could enhance development.

“TUTTs sometimes bring a large amount of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and cyclones and thus hinder their development. On the contrary, there are cases that TUTTs assist the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. Moreover, under specific circumstances, TUTTs can grow into upper cold lows and may enhance the development of low level disturbances.”

Resource: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TUTT

[KWT]

Sometimes but this TUTT has hellish shear levels flowing around it with jet speeds upwards of 40-50kts and with its coming out of the west and the system moving into it, its doomed and sooner or later its going to be totally gone.

[Tampa_God]

Sometimes but this TUTT has hellish shear levels flowing around it with jet speeds upwards of 40-50kts and with its coming out of the west and the system moving into it, its doomed and sooner or later its going to be totally gone.

Or the convection can go poof, but the low may still live after the shear......

[Steve]

>>Still, I think it'd be better if admin removed the 93L model track since it might mislead any first time visitors, especially since the media is talking about Wilma, er, Bertha at this time, and, that alone might increase first-time visits to this site - no use getting anyone more confused that everyone already is...

I know what you were saying. But I'm not in favor of restricting information. Bertha is clearly "Bertha." 93L is clearly 93L.

>>Sometimes but this TUTT has hellish shear levels flowing around it with jet speeds upwards of 40-50kts and with its coming out of the west and the system moving into it, its doomed and sooner or later its going to be totally gone.

That's what they said about 2005's TD #10 which eventually became TD #12 and couldn't bust that shear zone. As with all upper level cyclonic activity, the placement of the cyclone in relation to the upper level feature is the key. Agreed that it's pretty rare for anything to just go right through it, but there is precedent for the entire "whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger" scenario. My ex-wife's house still isn't 100% complete from TD #10 which would never make it through.

/just saying

Steve

[KWT]

True shear can't destroy a waves energy that I know off but in the case you mention TD10 died per say and the energy eventually also got mixed up with the other disturbance became Td12 and went from there.

In this case 93L will likely be destroyed, not 100% certain as you never can be but its massivly likely. Thats not to say it should still be watched just in case down the road if it can get into favorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

Well,it only lasted 24 hours:

NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807032010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2008, DB, O, 2008070218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932008
AL, 93, 2008070118, , BEST, 0, 119N, 528W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008070200, , BEST, 0, 121N, 544W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008070206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 561W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008070212, , BEST, 0, 126N, 580W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008070218, , BEST, 0, 134N, 597W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2008070300, , BEST, 0, 138N, 608W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2008070306, , BEST, 0, 141N, 621W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2008070312, , BEST, 0, 143N, 636W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

We may see it back in a few days in the WCAR, BOC, or EPAC.

[KWT]

As expected really cycloneye the wall of shear was just too much. I still think this one may need watching in the future for the gulf region IF shear decide to ease down in time.

[cycloneye]

A question to any pro met,if this same system gets going in the Western Caribbean or BOC,it gets 93L again or a new number?

[Derek Ortt]

probably 93L if it is in fact the same system

[chadtm80]

Admin, just a suggestion, but, I'd take down that 93L computer model plot on the home page, lest someone sees it and incorrectly thinks that it means something significant for Florida or the Gulf Coast, especially since, per the TWO:

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

Again, just a suggestion, lest someone thinks S2K equals JB...

LOL

It is down.. The maps we use are automated.. They stay active on the maps untill the NRL ftp info drops it off there servers all together.. There is no confusion in that and no wrong doing was done what so ever.. Each and every map is time stamped as well.

Also I dont know how the TWO saying upper level winds are not conductive for develeopment means model maps shouldnt be up for it

[chadtm80]

I know what you were saying. But I'm not in favor of restricting information. Bertha is clearly "Bertha." 93L is clearly 93L.

Steve

Exactly.. Basicly you are saying frank is we shouldnt have model maps up unless its for a significant storm? Storm2k is about supplying information on every storm

[dixiebreeze]

I'm loath to count this system out just yet. Just a hunch.

[Aric Dunn]

im just shocked that the little swirl survived this long through carribean! if it were to slow down the shear weaken and it start moving wnw. then maybe it will have a little better chance...lol ..i mean there is still a little bit of convergence but not much ..

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Wow...look at that tiny llc running towards the convection over central america...that would really be interesting if it caught up with that convection...

[Chacor]

It's no longer on NRL, shouldn't this thread be archived? There's a new thread in talkin' tropics to follow the remnant of this, I believe.

[Sanibel]

Naked spiral shooting out ahead of that weakening sheared convection.

[cycloneye]

We allow comments after a invest is gone from NRL for a couple of days and afterwards,it goes to the storms archieve forum.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

Just as a conversation note