INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

[RL3AO]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

THINGS ARE COOKING!!!

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al932008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807022016
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2008, DB, O, 2008070218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932008
AL, 93, 2008070218, , BEST, 0, 134N, 597W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[brunota2003]

Time to merge threads!

[cycloneye]

Models.

[RL3AO]

93L: Prepare for a very rough and sheared death.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice distrabance but heading into the jaws of the TUTT.

[HURAKAN]

Similarly to 91L, time is very limited.

[cycloneye]

I really didnt thought that this tiny system would get invest status,but NHC may see something that merits it.

[KWT]

It doesn't look at all bad right now and its not all that surprising if I'm honest that its been given 93L however as has been said its about to head into a very vicous death by shear, may not even be with us this time tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

I really didnt thought that this tiny system would get invest status,but NHC may see something that merits it.

Maybe they like messing with us weather geeks.

Second note to 93L: GO EAST!!!!

[cycloneye]

[brunota2003]

Good system to check on the performance of the models in the short term though, right? Look for any bias or direction of track.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You can see nice low level inflow on the southern side. But it's most likely above the surface, but anyways this is dead invest moving!

[Gustywind]

13, 4 N 59,7W 20 kts and "dunk you very much" lool... in spite of the Olympics Shear and in early July.... it's a poster DUNK .... i won' t imagine in august, how suspicious these waves are ....

[Nimbus]

No west wind at Grantley Adams just a NE to S shift with a few showers. Kind of cute while it was in a better environment though.

[cycloneye]

552
WHXX01 KWBC 022031
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2031 UTC WED JUL 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080702 1800 080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 59.7W 14.5N 62.6W 15.9N 65.5W 16.9N 68.2W
BAMD 13.4N 59.7W 14.6N 62.2W 15.8N 64.5W 16.8N 66.6W
BAMM 13.4N 59.7W 14.6N 62.6W 15.9N 65.3W 16.9N 67.7W
LBAR 13.4N 59.7W 14.5N 62.6W 15.9N 65.4W 17.3N 68.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800 080707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 71.1W 19.6N 76.6W 21.5N 82.0W 24.1N 87.0W
BAMD 17.3N 68.5W 17.9N 72.6W 18.6N 76.6W 19.3N 80.6W
BAMM 17.7N 70.1W 19.2N 75.0W 20.9N 79.6W 22.5N 83.6W
LBAR 18.2N 70.4W 20.2N 74.0W 22.7N 76.7W 25.4N 78.9W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 44KTS 46KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 56.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 52.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[RL3AO]

Watch out Florida! Its heading for the GOM! Don't let the oil traders see that!

[CrazyC83]

An invest with little hope here. Sorry, 92L will likely steal the headlines...

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like a small MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) that may have been partially spawned by increased low level convergence associated with the tropical wave axis to the east. A prolonged and localized heavy precipitation threat over the next ~24 hours is possible because of the ascent in the vicinity. Islanders would probably be prudent to watch for flash flooding, especially in areas with elevated topography. Although this will not develop to a TC and was clearly nothing from the start, this actually poses a slight threat, unlike 92L.

Although everyone will focus on 92L, most of the "land lubbers" in the E Caribbean will watch this one.