INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

PTrackerLA · #61 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:40 pm

Even with the shear ahead, it's pretty well organized. It poses more of a threat, albeit very small, than 92L ever will IMHO. The tropics are slowly coming to life :eek:

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Gustywind · #62 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:44 pm

HUC wrote:Hey Gusty,i think for some TStorm to night. the shear should deccelerate the system somewhat,and foce it to turn a little to the Nwest.. the south of our islands should be more cocern...BUT THAT IS ONLY MY MODEST OPINION......

WAOUW ok ok ok agree with you my friend, enjoy them with safety :wink:

lol, i tkink it too given the position and the more NW path, i was reading the latest forecast of Martinica and Guadeloupe the areas as yours should be more concerned by the convective activity, so let's see what will happen, but definitely interresting situation this afternoon, things are getting better and better. As usual, i will tell you in my area how the things are evolves...see you

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#63 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:45 pm

This looks much better than 92 imo...

KWT · #64 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:47 pm

I agree Deltadog it does look pretty good and better then 92L but the future for 93L is to be torn apart, its just not got the time to do anything more then what its already done IMO, good job because otherwise something would have kicked off from it.

Gustywind · #65 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:52 pm

For the moment , "all the action " seems near the East Carib...numerous waves, and an Invest very close of Saint Lucia, don't know if it's a bad signor not, but for sure at this rate we should be ...us in the islands... more on our guards during the next couple of weeks, especially in August and September.... :eek:

Apparently this beginning of season seems to break records, so keep watching carefully 8-)

southerngale · #66 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Models.

Was there supposed to be a post here? It just says, "Models."

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:58 pm

For sure NHC will mention it at the next TWO.

Gustywind · #68 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:For sure NHC will mention it at the next TWO.

Hope yeah Cycloneye...

Cyclone1 · #69 Postby **Cyclone1** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:02 pm

WHOA! I missing ALL of these invests! Just seeing this one.

Aric Dunn · #70 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:23 pm

and here is a good loop of the system.. its not a floater of the system just for the eastern carrib and Puerto rico.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

Derek Ortt · #71 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:26 pm

I have set a floater on this system at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html (was dragged away rfrom the pool to create this)

Aric Dunn · #72 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:26 pm

that is such a small circulation i noticed yesterday east of the islands but since its so small i thought really nothing of it.. but you never know..

#73 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:19 pm

The only unusual weather I noticed today was a very fine, dense and persistent drizzle that looked more like smoke than rain.

Gustywind · #74 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:24 pm

abajan wrote:The only unusual weather I noticed today was a very fine, dense and persistent drizzle that looked more like smoke than rain.

Ok tkanks that's good news for you in Barbados my friend

, hope the same in Martinica and for us in Guadeloupe....
So i will check the conditions in St Lucia and Martinica, to see ity.f the some tstorms are really bring some convective activity...

#75 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS ALSO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
OCCUR OVER THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:47 pm

Gustywind · #77 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:56 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 14N60W
JUST EAST OF ST LUCIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

gotoman38 · #78 Postby **gotoman38** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:32 pm

93L has a floater page up now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Aric Dunn · #79 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:49 pm

Gustywind wrote:
abajan wrote:The only unusual weather I noticed today was a very fine, dense and persistent drizzle that looked more like smoke than rain.

Ok tkanks that's good news for you in Barbados my friend , hope the same in Martinica and for us in Guadeloupe....
So i will check the conditions in St Lucia and Martinica, to see ity.f the some tstorms are really bring some convective activity...

i know someone who live in martinica

#80 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:11 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 030106
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0106 UTC THU JUL 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080703 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080703 0000 080703 1200 080704 0000 080704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 60.8W 15.0N 63.7W 16.2N 66.4W 17.1N 69.4W
BAMD 13.8N 60.8W 15.0N 63.2W 16.1N 65.5W 16.9N 67.6W
BAMM 13.8N 60.8W 14.9N 63.7W 16.0N 66.3W 16.9N 68.9W
LBAR 13.8N 60.8W 15.1N 63.7W 16.5N 66.5W 17.8N 69.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080705 0000 080706 0000 080707 0000 080708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 72.4W 19.6N 78.3W 21.6N 84.0W 24.4N 89.4W
BAMD 17.3N 69.7W 17.8N 73.9W 18.3N 78.2W 18.6N 82.4W
BAMM 17.6N 71.6W 19.1N 76.7W 20.7N 81.4W 22.2N 86.0W
LBAR 18.8N 71.1W 21.3N 74.7W 24.1N 76.9W 26.7N 78.9W
SHIP 38KTS 42KTS 44KTS 41KTS
DSHP 38KTS 41KTS 42KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 58.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 54.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Those who live in Vero Beach,watchout as LBAR goes there.

INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

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