INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

[HURAKAN]

Are computer models seeing a more conducive atmosphere in the future? Why the increase in intensity?

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC SHIP Shear forecast for 93L.Not favorable:The only time of 10kt shear is in 18 hours.

Code: Select all

               *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL932008  07/03/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    26    29    33    38    41    42    42    44    43    41
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    26    29    33    38    36    41    40    42    41    39
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    21    21    22    23    21    23    22    21    19    17

SHEAR (KTS)       16    19    16    10    14    26    24    31    34    30    38    44    44
SHEAR DIR        251   263   281   277   239   302   297   297   271   299   298   311   310
SST (C)         27.8  28.0  28.1  28.0  28.0  28.1  28.4  28.6  28.5  28.8  28.9  29.0  28.5
POT. INT. (KT)   136   139   140   138   138   139   143   146   145   149   151   152   144
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   139   139   136   135   136   139   141   138   141   141   142   133
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C)      10     9     9    10    10     9    11    10    11    10    12    10    11
700-500 MB RH     55    56    58    55    57    56    51    55    53    61    55    61    60
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -2    -7    -2    -2    -3    -4    -5    -8   -30   -36   -58   -66   -50
200 MB DIV        42    47    38    36    16    18     2    27    18     3     6     0    24
LAND (KM)        334   405   416   299   217   135    16   -13    82   142   145    75   128
LAT (DEG N)     13.8  14.4  14.9  15.5  16.0  16.9  17.6  18.3  19.1  19.9  20.7  21.3  22.2
LONG(DEG W)     60.8  62.3  63.7  65.0  66.3  68.9  71.6  74.2  76.7  79.2  81.4  83.7  86.0
STM SPEED (KT)    15    15    14    14    13    14    13    13    12    12    11    11    11
HEAT CONTENT      50    56    60    61    68    57    73    72    74    76    84     3    69

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16      CX,CY: -14/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  606  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  23.1 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  45.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.  10.  18.  23.  29.  33.  37.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   0.  -6. -11. -17. -20. -24. -28.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   3.   5.   8.  12.  17.  20.  22.  22.  24.  23.  22.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   3.   6.   9.  13.  18.  21.  22.  22.  24.  23.  21.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008     INVEST 07/03/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.0 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  35.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 117.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  59.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    21% is   1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    12% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008     INVEST 07/03/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[Gustywind]

The only unusual weather I noticed today was a very fine, dense and persistent drizzle that looked more like smoke than rain.

Ok tkanks that's good news for you in Barbados my friend , hope the same in Martinica and for us in Guadeloupe....
So i will check the conditions in St Lucia and Martinica, to see ity.f the some tstorms are really bring some convective activity...

i know someone who live in martinica

Ok glad to see that Aric Dunnn , it seems that given the sat ...Ste Lucia is experiencing a nice flare up right now and this is approaching Martinica too, but i'm very confident that the activity will be confined in a short perimeter, hope it verifies after all ..

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Looking at 93L I think the shear actually seems to be relaxing some in the E. Caribbean. I'm noticing that the high clouds flow doesn't appear to be racing NE as it was earlier this evening....

Hmmm....could there be a slight negative shear tendency situation happening in the E Carib tonight? In that case it would allow 93L to organize even further.

and..if 93L can survive the high shear environment ahead of it...any chance it could make it through into some areas of more favorable upper-level winds further West?

[tailgater]

Shear keeping this invest in check, but it doesn't look like it's gonna destroy the small stucture as quickly as some seem to think.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[MiamiensisWx]

This one has no chance. Upper level shear only becomes worse further west across the Caribbean Sea. It's currently facing strong divergence from the upper low NE of the Leeward Islands, and there is hostile shear further west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv.jpg

[gatorcane]

Shear keeping this invest in check, but it doesn't look like it's gonna destroy the small stucture as quickly as some seem to think.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

The shear is actually not as strong as some think either in my opinion. Hopefully ULL winds will pick up later tonight to put it out for good.

[tailgater]

This one has no chance. Upper level shear only becomes worse further west across the Caribbean Sea. It's currently facing strong divergence from the upper low NE of the Leeward Islands, and there is hostile shear further west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv.jpg

Conditions certainly not favorable in the very near future but I wouldn't turn my back on it

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... hear28.png
I just saw this
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932008 07/03/08 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 38 41 42 42 44 43 41
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 33 38 36 41 40 42 41 39
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 21 23 22 21 19 17

SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 16 10 14 26 24 31 34 30 38 44 44
SHEAR DIR 251 263 281 277 239 302 297 297 271 299 298 311 310
SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 140 138 138 139 143 146 145 149 151 152 144
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 139 136 135 136 139 141 138 141 141 142 133
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 11 10 11 10 12 10 11
700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 55 57 56 51 55 53 61 55 61 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -8 -30 -36 -58 -66 -50
200 MB DIV 42 47 38 36 16 18 2 27 18 3 6 0 24
LAND (KM) 334 405 416 299 217 135 16 -13 82 142 145 75 128
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.3 22.2
LONG(DEG W) 60.8 62.3 63.7 65.0 66.3 68.9 71.6 74.2 76.7 79.2 81.4 83.7 86.0
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 50 56 60 61 68 57 73 72 74 76

So I'll give up trying to figure out shear forecast

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 030301
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1101 PM AST WED JUL 2 2008
ON THURSDAY
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
AS MOISTURE OUT AHEAD AND TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE BROUGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...
IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 16 10 14 26 24 31 34 30 38 44 44

Out of the frying pan, and into the fire, shear wise, if that is correct.

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 11:00 PM EDTJul 02, 2008


Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)


Latest 11 PM (3) Jul 02 78 (26) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) SE 23
10 PM (2) Jul 02 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015)
9 PM (1) Jul 02 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) WNW 6
hey hey wnw direction? shift in the winds interresting....the experienced a small shift

[cycloneye]

Gustywind,how is the weather right now in Guadeloupe?

[Gustywind]

Gustywind,how is the weather right now in Guadeloupe?

Waouw the calm nothing in my area Cycloneye, no winds or very light , no showers strictly nothing...as classical night
But , i check you the conditions in the Raizet ( the weather station of the pro mets)http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/satellite/tag/Tagant.jpg
Always there tenancious tiny system....given wnw in st lucia briefly little nasty boy lol
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 11:00 PM EDTJul 02, 2008 -
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.03 in. Hg (1017 hPa)
Pressure is high, should we see showers tonight not sure maybe tommorow morning if this is not ripped apart..

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Always there tenancious tiny system....given wnw in st lucia briefly little nasty boy lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/TAG/Tagant.jpg
Always there tenancious tiny system....given wnw in st lucia briefly little nasty boy lol

May technically be a TD at this point, but it should be going downhill from here due to shear, so I'm guessing no upgrade, and deterioration back to an open wave soon. Doesn't have much deep convection left.

IMHO

[Gustywind]

The type of this ball of convection reminds me curiously ...Marylin in 1995 , the early stages of developpement...but Marylin was bigger and more much organized and it's another story, just my subjective feeling but it's the same structure for me ...these type of Barbadian system very very tiny sometimes but well concentrated with a warm heart, beautiful and usually they have a sort a strengh and often develop quicker than predicted, speed speed as speedy Gonzalez lol . Hopefully no Marylin....that 's the good news of my story see you in the bed

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The inflow out of the south was a hint that it could have a "LLC". Now theres west wind, but anyways it should not have much time.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/TAG/Tagant.jpg
Always there tenancious tiny system....given wnw in st lucia briefly little nasty boy lol

May technically be a TD at this point, but it should be going downhill from here due to shear, so I'm guessing no upgrade, and deterioration back to an open wave soon. Doesn't have much deep convection left.

IMHO

Yeah what can we have more? 2 invest in a day in July 2nd? Anything else want an nexpresso?
It's amazing to have that right now in only the beginning ? Be serious, a TD would not occur but who knows, whereas a Td status seems pretty hard to believe , but as usual let's see what pans out....