INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is an invest now? Wow. I wasn't really expecting that. It will definitely be something to watch, and even if it does not develop, it looks like the future path may bring it close enough to FL (as a tropical wave?) for some enhanced rainfall across the state in about 4-6 days.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
4 PM sat pic little popping trend look like a small ball of convection well concentrated but very tiny, good luck little baby....Olympics Shear will be back shortly

[MiamiensisWx]

This is an invest now? Wow. I wasn't really expecting that. It will definitely be something to watch, and even if it does not develop, it looks like the future path may bring it close enough to FL for some enhanced rainfall across the state in about 4-6 days.

It won't develop. It's only a short lived MCV under high upper level shear. The threat is localized heavy precip in the E Caribbean.

[wxman57]

Nice distrabance but heading into the jaws of the TUTT.

Yep. Shear is already starting to rip into it. Won't have any future as a TD/TS.

[cycloneye]

From the AFD in San Juan.We will get some rain as it passes mainly to our south.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST WED JUL 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WERE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE EAST INTERIOR THROUGH NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS A MID/LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTED THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. GFS PICKED UP ON THIS TROUGH QUITE WELL AND
RAINFALL COVERAGE YESTERDAY WAS TO THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE ISLAND
AHEAD OF THE AXIS AND TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFTER SUNSET.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH INTO THE U.S.V.I TONIGHT AND INTO PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TOMORROW. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TODAY DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE TO
SOUTH. WHICH WILL MEAN THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SAN JUAN METRO AS STREAMERS FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like a small MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) that may have been partially spawned by increased low level convergence associated with the tropical wave axis to the east. A prolonged and localized heavy precipitation threat over the next ~24 hours is possible because of the ascent in the vicinity. Islanders would probably be prudent to watch for flash flooding, especially in areas with elevated topography. Although this will not develop to a TC and was clearly nothing from the start, this actually poses a slight threat, unlike 92L.

Although everyone will focus on 92L, most of the "land lubbers" in the E Caribbean will watch this one.

Visible view

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 201500.png

Latest radar from Guadelopupe..

[gatorcane]

Wow Luis (cycloneye) this came out of nowhere. Kudos for you for picking up on this system before it even became an invest

[Gustywind]

It looks like a small MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) that may have been partially spawned by increased low level convergence associated with the tropical wave axis to the east. A prolonged and localized heavy precipitation threat over the next ~24 hours is possible because of the ascent in the vicinity. Islanders would probably be prudent to watch for flash flooding, especially in areas with elevated topography. Although this will not develop to a TC and was clearly nothing from the start, this actually poses a slight threat, unlike 92L.

Although everyone will focus on 92L, most of the "land lubbers" in the E Caribbean will watch this one.

Absolutely MiamiensisWx, i'm waiting for the latest weather forecast by the pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe at 5 pm, given the radar of Martinica, they should experience numerous showers and scattered tstorms tonight...Let's see what happens during the next 6 hours...

[Category 5]

THINGS ARE COOKING!!!

Not even close

Man, this thing is tiny.

[gatorcane]

its an invest because the Navy must think it has a chance of becoming a TD so I hope the TUTT works its magic on this one since it is too close to land for comfort.

[KWT]

Good job that TUTT is where it is otherwise with lower shear this would have quite possibly have become a player in a hurry...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/radar/guadeloupe/TFFR-400KM-20080702201500.png

Latest radar from Guadelopupe..

Hey Huc reminds you what i was saying the previous time we were at phone a week ago!!!!
That's it

[Extremeweatherguy]

It sure does look nice right now. If there wasn't all that shear ahead of it, it would almost certainly have a good shot to develop. Even with the shear though, I wonder if the wave-axis that this system is a part of will be able to bring Florida an increased chance of rainfall in 4-6 days? Or will the leftover wave-axis move more toward the GOM?

[Stratosphere747]

Corpus touched on it earlier - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP


ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SHOW ANOTHER SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN
ATTM. BUMPED POPS UP TO 40% FOR NOW AS LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES THIS PAST MONTH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is an invest now? Wow. I wasn't really expecting that. It will definitely be something to watch, and even if it does not develop, it looks like the future path may bring it close enough to FL for some enhanced rainfall across the state in about 4-6 days.

It won't develop. It's only a short lived MCV under high upper level shear. The threat is localized heavy precip in the E Caribbean.

It probably doesn't develop in this basin, but if it stays below about 17ºN, watch out East Pac!

[Gustywind]

THINGS ARE COOKING!!!

Not even close

Man, this thing is tiny.

Yeah but tiny and tenacious tiny and hope no tremendous!

[MiamiensisWx]

its an invest because the Navy must think it has a chance of becoming a TD so I hope the TUTT works its magic on this one since it is too close to land for comfort.

The divergence will only enhance the ascent, favoring additional convection with heavy precip (rainfall) potential over the E Caribbean. The low level convergence with the tropical wave axis will exacerbate the threat.

I must also mention the orographic lift over the small, mountainous islands.

[cycloneye]

Wow Luis (cycloneye) this came out of nowhere. Kudos for you for picking up on this system before it even became an invest

Well actually,this has been always been a small system with a tiny circulation since 30w a few days ago but it got a lot better as it neared the Windwards and that is why I made that TT thread.

[gatorcane]

well one thing is for sure with two invests popping as soon as we turned the calendar to July it makes me wonder if this season is going to be very active.