ATL: Tropical Storm BERTHA advisories

[cycloneye]

335
WTNT32 KNHC 131435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE
ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...30.2 N...63.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

627
WTNT42 KNHC 131435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAS DECREASED EXCEPT WITHIN A BAND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...BERTHA STILL HAS A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55
KNOTS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL INTENSITY
AND WIND RADII INFORMATION LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD
INDUCE WEAKENING...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND INTENSITY MODELS
EITHER STRENGTHEN OR KEEP BERTHA WITH THE SAME INTENSITY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED FOR AN INITIAL WEAKENING AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODELS CALLING FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 2
TO 3 KNOTS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND A TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A SLOW
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL SLOW AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA COULD
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.2N 63.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 30.4N 63.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 61.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 54.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 131735
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA HESITATES AGAIN...REFUSES TO MOVE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA ONCE AGAIN HAS STALLED AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE
FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.

PRELIMINARY DATA DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...30.0 N...63.0 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

911
WTNT42 KNHC 132027
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST FINISHED TWO PASSES
ACROSS BERTHA. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR AND DROPSONDES INDICATE
THAT BERTHA CONTINUES AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM. HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE RESTRENGTHENING WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN BERTHA WITH BASICALLY THE SAME INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS BERTHA AS A 50 KT CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS....AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IF
BERTHA BEGINS TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

BERTHA FOOLED ME ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA BEGAN A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT EARLIER TODAY BUT...IN FACT...IT WAS MOVING IN
CIRCLES AND IT COULD BE DOING ONE OF THESE LOOPS AGAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...INSISTS THAT
THE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE CIRCULATION SHOULD THEN EXPAND WHILE GRADUALLY ACQUIRING
EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT APPEARS THAT
BERTHA COULD BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 30.2N 63.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 63.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 32.0N 63.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 63.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 35.0N 62.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 35.0N 57.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 35.0N 54.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

754
WTNT32 KNHC 132026
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA STILL A VIGOROUS TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE YESTERDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.2 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

108
WTNT32 KNHC 132343
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

455
WTNT22 KNHC 140245
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 63.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 63.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.6N 63.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 35.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

642
WTNT32 KNHC 140247
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA STILL DRIFTING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BERTHA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD
THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY GREATER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.5 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

601
WTNT42 KNHC 140258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA IS TAPPING LIGHTLY ON THE ACCELERATOR...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/3. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED WITH A SUBTLE TURN TO
THE RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
HIGH CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE STORM. BY THAT TIME THE MODELS
FORECAST BERTHA TO BE NORTH OF THE RIDGE...AND IN BETWEEN A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. BERTHA AND THE CUTOFF LOW ARE
THEN FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER IN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX
MANNER ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPLIED BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE UNUSUAL UNDULATIONS IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK BEYOND 48
HOURS ARE SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT THE DIPS
AND TURNS IN THE MODEL TRACKS ARE A BIT MORE EXTREME THAN SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT THE FIVE-DAY CONSENSUS POINT IS NOT FAR FROM THAT IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO ON BALANCE THE NEW TRACK IS NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHANGE.

I HAVE NO SOLID REASON TO ALTER THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AS
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 23Z ONLY CAPTURED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION. CLOUD TOPS OF THE OUTER BANDS HAVE WARMED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IF ANYTHING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
INCREASED EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY
MODELS DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH CHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM
BEYOND THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
LGEM...BUT STILL BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT FORECAST BERTHA TO
AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE. WHILE THAT POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...IT APPEARS TO BE THE LESS LIKELY OPTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CONVOLUTED STATE OF BERTHA'S INNER CORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 30.5N 63.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 34.6N 63.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 35.8N 62.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 34.5N 56.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 53.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

556
WTNT22 KNHC 140858
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 63.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 63.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.6N 63.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.8N 62.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.4N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 35.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 37.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

855
WTNT32 KNHC 140859
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARRIVING IN BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. COMMANDERS POINT...AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN
BERMUDA...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 MPH...67
KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...31.5 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

548
WTNT42 KNHC 140900
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

BERTHA IS FINALLY...TRULY ON THE MOVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/7. THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERKED UP A BIT
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SINCE THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE MADE AT 06Z...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM BERMUDA SHOWS THAT OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA HAVE BEGUN PASSING
OVER THAT ISLAND...AND THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS NOT FAR
OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THAT ISLAND. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TODAY. THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND
HWRF STILL FORECAST BERTHA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.

BERTHA HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP A LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS. ONCE BERTHA ROUNDS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST AND
STARTS HEADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE
STEERING MECHANISMS BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST
TO APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE EAST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COULD RESULT IN AN UNDULATING BUT GENERALLY
EASTWARD TRACK OF BERTHA AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK
INCLUDES THESE UNDULATIONS...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THEM JUST A
LITTLE. THE NEW FIVE-DAY POINT HAS ALSO BEEN SPED UP TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 31.5N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 32.6N 63.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 35.8N 62.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 36.4N 61.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 35.0N 59.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

091
WTNT32 KNHC 141141
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFFECTING BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 68
MPH...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT IN BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

551
WTNT32 KNHC 141455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...BERTHA MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT IN BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
BERTHA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...32.0 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...CENTER OF BERTHA PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...60 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS NOW EDGING
AWAY FROM BERMUDA...STRONG WINDS IN A RAINBAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER HAVE YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED STATION IN BERMUDA...COMMISSIONER'S POINT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...32.5 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

[westcoastfl]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 141855
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
255 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT BERTHA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN A RAINBAND THAT WILL BE PASSING OVER
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE CLEARING BERMUDA...AND FOR THIS
REASON THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 142043
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008

...BERTHA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...STRONGEST PART OF STORM
ABOUT TO PASS OVER BERMUDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...100 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO
THE EAST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
BERMUDA'S ELEVATED TERRAIN. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT
THIS COULD OCCUR BEFORE BERTHA'S STRONGEST WINDS MOVE PAST BERMUDA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...33.0 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT42 KNHC 142044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BERTHA FOUND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...WINDS THAT WERE WERE CONFIRMED BY A CO-LOCATED
DROPSONDE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE
IN DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF BERTHA FINALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM WHERE IT HAD BEEN PARKED. THIS STRENTHENING REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...AS THIS PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE HAS YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE
EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT BERTHA
WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECT THE STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOTION OF THE
OVERALL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THAT OF THE SMALL SWIRL THAT IS VISIBLE
ROTATING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE SHORT TERM TRACK
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED...WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...BERTHA'S PATH WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 39N/43W BUT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE IS SLOWER
THAN IT HAD BEEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE BERTHA SOUTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE
WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS ACCELERATION ON DAYS
4-5 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT EVEN SO IS FASTER THAN JUST
ABOUT EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HWRF AND GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 33.0N 64.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 62.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 61.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 35.2N 60.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 54.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[westcoastfl]

817
WTNT42 KNHC 142044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BERTHA FOUND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...WINDS THAT WERE WERE CONFIRMED BY A CO-LOCATED
DROPSONDE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE
IN DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF BERTHA FINALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM WHERE IT HAD BEEN PARKED. THIS STRENTHENING REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...AS THIS PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE HAS YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE
EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT BERTHA
WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECT THE STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOTION OF THE
OVERALL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THAT OF THE SMALL SWIRL THAT IS VISIBLE
ROTATING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE SHORT TERM TRACK
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED...WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...BERTHA'S PATH WILL BE
DETERMINED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 39N/43W BUT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE IS SLOWER
THAN IT HAD BEEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE BERTHA SOUTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE
WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS ACCELERATION ON DAYS
4-5 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT EVEN SO IS FASTER THAN JUST
ABOUT EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HWRF AND GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 33.0N 64.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 62.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 35.7N 61.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 35.2N 60.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 54.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 142344
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008

....SQUALLS STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...135 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO
THE EAST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
BERMUDA'S ELEVATED TERRAIN. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT
THIS COULD OCCUR BEFORE BERTHA'S STRONGEST WINDS MOVE PAST BERMUDA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...33.4 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

497
WTNT22 KNHC 150249
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 63.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 63.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.7N 61.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.4N 60.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.4N 59.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 36.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 39.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 151452
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

...LONG-LIVED BERTHA TO HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...35.6 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT42 KNHC 151453
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

BERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING
WITH A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM...
AND APPARENT EYEWALL MESOVORTICES ROTATING QUICKLY AROUND THE
CENTER. HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 55-60 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM
STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS INDICATED BY ALL
MODELS. THE STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST NO INTENSIFICATION BUT THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL/HWRF EMPHATICALLY SUGGEST BERTHA
WILL BECOME...AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR A HURRICANE BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING 030/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
A NARROW RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA IS STEERING THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE
ERODED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS WITHIN 24 HOURS AS A LARGE
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THE BIGGEST
DISCREPANCY IS WHEN THE EXPECTED RIGHT TURN OF THE CYCLONE
EMERGES. THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOW THAT THE TURN WILL BE DELAYED FOR
AN EXTRA 12 HOURS...ALLOWING THE STORM TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL CAMPS...AND SHIFTS THE TRACK
NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM. UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS HIGH IN THE
LONG-RANGE FORECAST AS THE GFDL/HWRF ARE STILL SHOWING BERTHA
SHOOTING OUT TO SEA WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE MUCH SLOWER.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUCH A WELL-DEVELOPED
STRUCTURE LIKE THE FORMER MODELS ARE INDICATING...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS THAT DELAY
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S EVENTUAL DEMISE. AROUND 120 HOURS A
COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTION
MAY...HOPEFULLY...START TO SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF BERTHA AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 35.6N 62.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 36.4N 61.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 36.2N 60.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 35.1N 59.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 34.1N 58.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 34.5N 54.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 37.5N 50.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 41.5N 46.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 152033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.3N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 35.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 53.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


WTNT32 KNHC 152034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

...BERTHA NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 315
MILES...510 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA MAY STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.4 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT42 KNHC 152035
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED A BIT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM HAS ABOUT A
DAY LEFT TO POSSIBLY INTENSIFY BEFORE WIND SHEAR INCREASES...
ALTHOUGH SO FAR BERTHA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING
THE SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING IN ABOUT
96 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF BERTHA
AROUND DAY 5.

BERTHA HAS SHOWN NO INDICATION OF THE FORECAST RIGHT TURN AND
CONTINUES ON A TRACK OF ABOUT 030/8. HOWEVER THIS CHANGE IN
DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR SOON AS MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS BECOMING
WEAKER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...BERTHA
SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
IN AN ARCING SEMICIRCLE FASHION AROUND A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW TO
THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TRACK
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

BERTHA IS NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC
HISTORY...WITH 12.5 DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER. THIS
ECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.25 DAYS OCCURRING IN 1916 FROM
STORM #2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 36.4N 62.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 36.8N 61.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 36.3N 60.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 35.1N 59.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 35.7N 53.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 39.5N 49.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 160249
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEGRADE THIS
EVENING AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STORM. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
FROM 2222 UTC SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE. BERTHA STILL HAS A
LITTLE TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WHILE THE STORM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS BERTHA JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...
COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN
BERTHA'S GRADUAL DEMISE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

BERTHA APPEARS TO BE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE ANTICIPATED EASTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/5. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING BERTHA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER...AROUND
THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE EAST. AS THE DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...BERTHA SHOULD FINALLY FEEL THE
WESTERLIES AND STARTING HEADING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH
THE UKMET AND GFS SHOWING LESS ACCELERATION...WHILE THE GFDL...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS RACE BERTHA NORTHEASTWARD. FOR NOW...THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...AND IS CLOSE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE 12Z ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 36.8N 61.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 36.9N 61.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 36.0N 60.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 34.7N 59.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 57.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 36.5N 52.7W 50 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 40.0N 48.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 44.5N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 161431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED SINCE YESTERDAY
WITH AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0938
UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT. THIS ESTIMATE WILL BE
USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STORM MAY BE TEMPERED BY
INCREASING SSTS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY ALL MODELS IN A
FEW DAYS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN MORE IN THE LONG-TERM.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN 4 OR 5 DAYS DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WINDS AND RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS.

QUIKSCAT DATA HELPED PLACE THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN MOTION ESTIMATE OF
100/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND A LARGE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN ARCING PATH TAKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM
NORTH AMERICA. IN TWO TO THREE DAYS... A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY
FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.6N 60.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 36.0N 60.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 35.0N 58.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 34.7N 56.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 35.6N 54.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 40.0N 49.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 43.5N 44.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1200Z 47.5N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

247
WTNT42 KNHC 162043
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

BERTHA REMAINS A POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A
RAGGED EYE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION FROM THIS MORNING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
60 KT. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND
THE STORM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A SLOW DECREASE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS SSTS DIMINISH SLOWLY ALONG THE TRACK.
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF BERTHA SHOULD START IN ABOUT 3-4
DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EVEN COOLER
WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWING ONLY A SLOW DEMISE OF THE STORM.

THE STORM HAS MADE THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 140/4. A
LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS NOW STEERING BERTHA
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST TAKING THE STORM TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EAST...THEN NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER BERTHA WILL BE SENT OUT TO SEA BY THE
UPPER LOW OR WHETHER A SECOND TROUGH WILL FINISH OFF THE STORM.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH A FASTER SOLUTION...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.1N 60.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 35.5N 59.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 34.7N 58.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 35.1N 55.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 36.9N 53.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 41.5N 47.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 46.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE