ATL: Tropical Storm BERTHA advisories

[HURAKAN]

163
WTNT32 KNHC 170242
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST WED JUL 16 2008

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360
MILES...575 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...BUT A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO START
ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...35.4 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

987
WTNT42 KNHC 170244
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN
-50 DEGREES C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
45 KT...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2156 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE
WINDS REMAIN 55-60 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.
ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PREDICTS LITTLE CHANGE IN BERTHA'S
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING
AS SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

BERTHA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...140/7. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AS
BERTHA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...BUT AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...12Z UKMET...AND GFDL...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE
EXPANDED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 35.4N 59.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 34.6N 58.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 34.5N 56.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 35.5N 54.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 37.6N 51.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 45.7W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 48.0N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/0000Z 54.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

490
WTNT22 KNHC 171441
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 58.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 210SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 58.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.1N 56.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.2N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.3N 51.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.3N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 43.5N 43.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 51.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 57.5N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

091
WTNT42 KNHC 171442
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0912 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF
BERTHA WERE ABOUT 50 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
STORM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...I'M
HESITANT TO LOWER THE WINDS TOO MUCH BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND
THE RESILENCY OF THE SYSTEM. 50 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS TEMPTING TO
LOWER THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BERTHA MAY
BECOME A LARGE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY DAY 5.

THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
8 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN ITS MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CAPTURE BERTHA...LIKE THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOWS...OR THE STORM WILL
REMAIN A MORE SEPARATE ENTITY LIKE THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.
THE OFFICAL FORECAST LEANS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...SHOWING A LITTLE MORE TROUGH INTERACTION.

BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED STORMS IN
HISTORY IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 34.2N 58.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 34.1N 56.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 35.2N 54.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 37.3N 51.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 39.3N 49.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 43.5N 43.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1200Z 51.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1200Z 57.5N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 172041
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE
AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW
ALOFT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WELL-MAINTAINED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
SHEAR AND WANING SSTS. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD
START SHORTLY AFTER 48 HR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND MORE
RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS...AND BY 120 HR...THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA
WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE STORM HAS MADE AN EASTWARD TURN AND IS MOVING ABOUT 090/10. A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA SHOULD STEER THE STORM MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON AN ACCELERATING PATH OUT TO SEA. THE GFS HAS CHANGED FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOW SHOWING MORE
INTERACTION WITH A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS AND IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

TO CLARIFY A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COMMENT...BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE
OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED ATLANTIC STORMS...IN TERMS OF DAYS AS A
TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER...IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL SUNDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 34.0N 57.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 34.4N 55.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 37.8N 51.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 39.9N 48.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 45.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1800Z 53.5N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

427
WTNT42 KNHC 180253
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

BERTHA CONTINUES TO BE A RELENTLESS CYCLONE AS A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION RECENTLY FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE THUS
MAINTAINING THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER
WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND
48 HOURS...BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS AND POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING BERTHA BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING EARLY WITH A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING
AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

BERTHA CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 100/15. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMPLETES ITS ROTATION
AROUND THE LOW AND THEN ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AN ACCELERATING CYCLONE...TRACK GUIDANCE
DIVERGES QUITE A BIT DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENT FORWARD SPEEDS. IN
GENERAL...TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT THEY HAVE NOT
DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 33.9N 55.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 34.8N 53.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.7N 51.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 38.8N 48.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 41.2N 45.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 47.0N 36.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 22/0000Z 56.0N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


001
WTNT32 KNHC 180254
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST THU JUL 17 2008

...BERTHA MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST OR ABOUT 555
MILES...895 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 895 MILES...
1435 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...33.9 N...55.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

478
WTNT42 KNHC 180834
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 61
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

TENACIOUS BERTHA CONTINUES TO HAVE A REMARKABLE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
PATTERN WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH...AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. AS BERTHA MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
IT APPEARS THAT FINALLY BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. SOME
MODELS MAKE BERTHA EXTRATROPICAL SOONER THAN OTHERS BUT THEY ALL
LEAD TO THE SAME ENDING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 34.8N 53.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 36.6N 51.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 48.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 42.5N 45.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 46.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/0600Z 54.0N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

057
WTNT32 KNHC 180833
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 61
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST FRI JUL 18 2008

...TENACIOUS BERTHA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 825
MILES...1325 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT BERTHA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...34.8 N...53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

753
WTNT22 KNHC 190235
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 48.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 110SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 48.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 49.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 110SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 45.4N 42.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 35SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 50.2N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 55.4N 32.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 75SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 150SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 63.5N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 275SE 150SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 48.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 191451
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 66
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

BERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL PAST 40
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 0820Z PRODUCED
25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 60 KT IN
DEEP CONVECTION...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERESTIMATES.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAINED 65 KT...AND THAT IS THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY. BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
PROBABLY NEARING ITS END...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS SO QUICKLY GAINING
LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY
A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS.

THE HURRICANE IS RACING ALONG AT 035/22...AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL
PROBABLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
ENTERS THE FULL-BLOWN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WHEN STEERING
CURRENTS ARE THIS WELL-DEFINED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS RIGHT ON
THE PREVIOUS ONE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 43.1N 45.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 45.9N 42.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 50.5N 37.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 21/0000Z 55.7N 31.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1200Z 60.8N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

006
WTNT22 KNHC 191723
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 66...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

CORRECTED TIME FOR FORECAST OF ABSORBED AT 22/1200Z

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 45.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 45.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 45.9N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 125SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 50.5N 37.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 125SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 55.7N 31.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 60.8N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 75SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.1N 45.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST SAT JUL 19 2008

...BERTHA NOT YET GIVING IN...HURRICANE HEADED QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES...
790 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41
KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL
BERTHA IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS BERTHA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...44.8 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

[HURAKAN]

361
WTNT42 KNHC 200257
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND BEGINNING
TO WARM. THE EYE THAT WAS VISIBLE SIX HOURS AGO IS GONE. DVORAK T
NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60
KT. FORECAST TO BE OVER 11C WATERS IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...BERTHA
SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEYOND
MIDDAY TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TRANSITION...THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY
NOT FALL OFF VERY FAST...AND BERTHA WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY
OR MERGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/21...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A
TIGHTLY-PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 45.7N 41.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 49.8N 37.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 55.0N 31.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 21/1200Z 60.1N 24.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/0000Z 64.0N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

407
WTNT32 KNHC 200255
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST SAT JUL 19 2008

...BERTHA WEAKENS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST OR ABOUT 545
MILES...875 KM...EAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL BERTHA IS
ABSORBED BY A LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WHILE BERTHA BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...45.7 N...41.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

091
WTNT22 KNHC 201500
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.3N 35.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.3N 35.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 37.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 55.2N 31.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 61.0N 24.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.3N 35.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

360
WTNT32 KNHC 201501
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST SUN JUL 20 2008

...BERTHA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST OR ABOUT 850
MILES...1365 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT
1020 MILES...1640 KM...SOUTHWEST OF REYKJAVIC ICELAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...51.3 N...35.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE