ATL: Tropical Storm BERTHA advisories

[cycloneye]

724
WTNT22 KNHC 100243
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.4N 59.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.7N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 61.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 58.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT32 KNHC 100245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST WED JUL 09 2008

...BERTHA EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY BUT COULD REGAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...25.5 N...58.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN

[cycloneye]

Discussion was released late.

WTNT42 KNHC 100300
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

THERE HAVE BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
OF THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES APPROACHED 100 KT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT HAVE SINCE COME
BACK DOWN IN LINE WITH THE 00Z SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...WHICH SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 90 KT. BERTHA CURRENTLY LIES
OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ALMOST 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO FORECAST AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THAT PERIOD...SO ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS
FORECAST AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN CALLS FOR BERTHA TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF MODEL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM...HOWEVER...FORECAST MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF...SO HOW MUCH WEAKENING OCCURS
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND DEPENDS IN
PART ON HOW FAST BERTHA MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ALONG 315 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 10 KT...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS...BERTHA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND SLOW DOWN. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS AGREED UPON
WELL BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT THEN THEY START TO
DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...DUE TO VARYING
DEPICTIONS OF WHEN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL EMERGE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL FORECAST
BERTHA TO SPEED UP BEYOND 72 HOURS AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
BERTHA TO STALL AT 72-120 HOURS...WAITING FOR THAT TROUGH TO
PERHAPS PICK BERTHA UP LATER. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS AN APPROXIMATE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOTION AT AROUND 72 HOURS...NOT FAR EAST OF BERMUDA...AND BERTHA
COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...
INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BERTHA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CONSIDERING THE COMBINED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF BERTHA...THERE IS ALREADY A 43%
CHANCE THAT BERMUDA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 25.5N 58.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 26.4N 59.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 60.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 28.7N 61.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 29.7N 61.8W 95 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 31.0N 62.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 61.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHWEST...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES...
875 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT42 KNHC 100834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.0 CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...WHICH IS
USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. GIVEN
THIS EVOLUTION...I HAVE ELECTED TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHIPS AND LGEM ALONG
WITH THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR STRENGTHENING
THROUGH AT LEAST 3-4 DAYS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 27-31 KT
OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN 3-5 DAYS. THEREFORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BERTHA'S FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW ABOUT 315/8. AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
IS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...SHOW A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA IN AROUND 72 HOURS.
THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD AT LEAST RETARD THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE HURRICANE AND...IF THE ANTICYCLONE TURNS OUT TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH...COULD EVEN FORCE A TURN TO THE LEFT AS INDICATED BY THE
GFS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS RESPOND TO THE INCREASED RIDGING
MAINLY BY SLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES 30N LATITUDE.
IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR BERTHA TO MOVE ERRATICALLY IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS OF THAT MOTION ARE OF COURSE UNKNOWN. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE-
AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH NEARING THE U.S EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS
AND FORECAST BRANCH BASED ON A JASON SATELLITE ALTIMETER PASS OVER
BERTHA...WHICH IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE WAVE MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 26.0N 59.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 27.0N 60.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 29.1N 61.8W 95 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 29.9N 62.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 31.0N 62.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 62.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 36.0N 61.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 101431
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 60.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 160SE 160SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 60.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT32 KNHC 101431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...WEAKER BERTHA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...SWELLS NOW AFFECTING
BERMUDA...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
785 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...
150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING BERTHA A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE BERTHA HAS WEAKENED
THIS MORNING...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF HAVE STARTED TO AFFECTED BERMUDA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...26.5 N...60.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


WTNT42 KNHC 101451
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF BERTHA HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE
EYEWALL HAVE WARMED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB DECREASING TO 77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH BERTHA HAS WEAKENED...THE OUTER BANDING HAS
INCREASED DURING THE NIGHT AND NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE AND CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE IT IS POOR TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. BERTHA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 37N59W. THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO
TURN NORTHWARD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF
BERTHA...AND FROM 36-72 HR THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERRATIC
MOTION AS BERTHA APPROACHES BERMUDA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL
CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS TWISTS AND TURNS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT BERTHA COULD JOG LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO BERMUDA AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE SOMEWHAT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER BERTHA
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WARM WATER.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...YET NONE
OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BUCK THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR. THEREAFTER...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE BERTA
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 26.5N 60.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 61.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 61.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 62.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 30.1N 62.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 62.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 61.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 102032
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 60.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 60.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 62.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.8N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 60.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

778
WTNT32 KNHC 102044
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA STILL A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF HAVE STARTED TO AFFECTED BERMUDA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.2 N...60.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

102
WTNT42 KNHC 102043
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS AND GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED EARLIER HAS WRAPPED UP INTO AN OUTER
EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 75 N MI. THIS FEATURE SURROUNDS
THE ORIGINAL INNER EYE WHICH IS ABOUT 10 N MI WIDE. BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE
INNER EYEWALL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX
STEERING PATTERN...CONSISTING OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
BERTHA THAT ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
28N69W THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS
PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO TURN NORTHWARD AS SHOWN IN THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK. DURING THE 36-72 HR PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BLOCK BERTHA'S
NORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION NEAR OR
TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CURRENTLY AGREE THAT A SECOND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BYPASS BERTHA...LEAVING THE STORM
TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW BERTHA REACHING 40N IN 5 DAYS. BASED ON
THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WITH THE TRACK SMOOTHING THROUGH
SOME OF THE ERRATIC MOTION FORECASTS IN THE MODELS. THE NEW TRACK
IS CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND BERTHA COULD COME
EVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA IF THE JOGS TO THE LEFT IN THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER BERTHA...AND THE STORM
STILL HAS A DAY OR TWO MORE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THUS...EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS CALL FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE COULD RE-INTENSIFY AT THE END OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN 24 HR. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE
ANTICYCLONE AND ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
AS BERTHA REACHES COOLER WATERS AND RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 27.2N 60.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 62.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.8N 62.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 62.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 62.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 62.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

266
WTNT22 KNHC 110244
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 61.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 61.2W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 62.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


WTNT32 KNHC 110245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...CATEGORY ONE BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT42 KNHC 110300
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY INDICATE THAT
THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN SLOWLY DETERIORATING...WHILE A NEW OUTER
EYEWALL HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE. THE MOST RECENT IMAGE...FROM SSMIS
AT 2319Z...DEPICTS THE OUTER EYEWALL AS A COMPLETELY CLOSED RING AT
A RADIUS OF ABOUT 60 N MI...WITH BARELY HALF OF THE INNER EYEWALL
REMAINING. TRENDS IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY REFLECT THE
EVOLVING STRUCTURE...AS THE EYE HAS JUST ABOUT DISAPPEARED WHILE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING ABOVE THE OUTER RING SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 23Z DEPICTED A
SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM IN THE OUTER EYEWALL. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE ALL 75 KT...BUT IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE EVEN
VERY SHORT-TERM INTENSITY CHANGES GIVEN THE ONGOING STRUCTURAL
CHANGES...EVEN THOUGH THE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOT
PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL
WEAKEN SOME UPON THE FINAL DEMISE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRACT
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT I AM NOT GOING TO
TRY TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST SUCH CHANGES. THE MOST PRUDENT
APPROACH...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...IS
TO KEEP THE INTENSITY LEVEL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIALLY INCREASES AND
BERTHA PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS JUST A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

BERTHA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 315/7. THE FORECAST AND ITS SUPPORTING REASONING
HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO...INCLUDING A
VERY SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR BERMUDA. BEYOND
THAT TIME...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST
AND FORECAST A FASTER MOTION AT 4-5 DAYS...THIS TIME FORECASTING
BERTHA TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD A LITTLE SOONER BY A TROUGH ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST BY THEN...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH
TO BLOCK BERTHA'S POLEWARD PROGRESS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST DOES NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THIS MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE
MODELS...BUT IT IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND MOST OF THE WAY TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS. SINCE THIS NEW TRACK STILL DOES NOT FORECAST BERTHA TO
BE GOING ANY FASTER THAN ABOUT 5-7 KT AT THE END OF THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...THIS ADJUSTMENT DOES NOT REPRESENT A HUGE CHANGE IN WHERE
WE EXPECT BERTHA TO BE IN FIVE DAYS.

THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE INDICATES THAT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF
BERTHA'S TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THERE ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE
THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 27.7N 61.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 28.4N 61.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 62.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 30.4N 62.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 31.1N 62.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 61.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 34.5N 60.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 37.0N 59.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[artist]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...BERTHA ABOUT A WEEK OLD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED FOR
LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...
500 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111437
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL FRAGMENT OF THE INNER
EYEWALL WITHIN A BETTER DEFINED AND LARGER RING OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. CONVENTIONAL VIS/IR IMAGES SHOW
THAT BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KNOTS. THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO BERTHA WILL BE
LATER TODAY...SO I WILL BE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WHEN THE PLANE GETS THERE. THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN
CONFIGURATION...ANNULAR TYPE...AND LOW SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE
INTENSITY WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...BERTHA
IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS UNTIL SHEAR INCREASES AND MOVES OVER A COOLER
OCEAN. THEN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL COULD SHRINK RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION...
I AM NOT CONSIDERING IT IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA
WHEN OR IF THIS CYCLE WILL OCCUR.

BERTHA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...AS ANTICIPATED...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS IN BETWEEN A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP BERTHA
WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE VERY SLOW AND BERTHA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 300 N MI IN THREE DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE CORE OF BERTHA
MOVING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
FARTHER OUT AND COULD REACH THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THEREFORE...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF
BERTHA'S...TRACK... INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OF
BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 28.5N 62.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 29.2N 62.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 30.2N 62.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.8N 62.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.5N 60.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 59.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



notice the mention of annular

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 111747
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES BERTHA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 28.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS DATA IS CONFIRMED...THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...28.7 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 62.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 62.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.2N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.6N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 62.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT32 KNHC 112040
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...LARGE EYE OF BERTHA LEISURELY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
EAST OF BERMUDA BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...29.1 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

730
WTNT42 KNHC 112041
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING BERTHA AND FOUND A 976 MB MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE MAXIMUM REPORTED WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...HAVE BEEN OF
THE ORDER OF 90 TO 99 KNOTS IN NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS
RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 72 KNOTS BUT THE DATA WAS
RAIN CONTAMINATED. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MEASUREMENTS
FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS. LATEST AMSU DATA SHOW THAT
THE INNER WALL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND IS ALMOST
CLOSED AGAIN...SO THE CHANGE FOR REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS. AT THIS
TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WHEN IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.

BERTHA HAS SLOWLY BEGAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4
KNOTS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST IS GOING TO BYPASS
BERTHA AND WILL LEAVE THE HURRICANE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS FOR A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT BERTHA WILL CONTINUE WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF BERTHA KEEPS MEANDERING A
LITTLE LONGER. IN FACT...SOME MODELS KEEP BERTHA LOOPING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 29.1N 62.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 29.5N 62.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.2N 62.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 30.6N 62.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 62.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 32.5N 62.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 34.0N 61.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 112348
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BERTHA STILL SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND
CRAWLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS
976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...29.3 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 120245
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 62.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 62.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.6N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.7N 62.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT32 KNHC 120246
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF BERTHA NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SOON...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...
395 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION
COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...29.4 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BERTHA HAS NOT CHANGED
THAT MUCH SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED SEVERAL HOURS
AGO...AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME...SO
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN INNER EYEWALL THAT
REFUSES TO COMPLETELY GO AWAY...WHILE THE OUTER EYEWALL PERSISTS AS
A CLOSED RING AT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER RADIUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ALL
OF THAT MEANS THAT THE WELL-ADVERTISED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
NOT EXACTLY PROCEEDING AT A BLISTERING PACE...AND I AM REALLY NOT
SURE HOW THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. PERSISTENCE MIGHT BE A GOOD GUIDE...SO A VERY SLOW
CHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRUCTURE WILL BE THE ASSUMPTION DRIVING THE
FLAT INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST THEREAFTER...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A CONSENSUS OF OUR
PRIMARY INTENSITY MODELS...AS BERTHA TAKES ITS TIME MOVING TOWARD
COOLER WATERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST AN
EXACT COPY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

BERTHA IS CAUGHT IN A VERY WEAK STEERING REGIME AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING...BARELY...AT 335/4. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT OFFER MUCH
PROGNOSTIC EVIDENCE THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT
AMPLITUDE WILL BE ABLE TO GET BERTHA MOVING MUCH FASTER WITHIN THE
FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE
U.S. NORTHEAST COAST WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BYPASS BERTHA WELL TO
THE NORTH...AND NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO ACCELERATE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITHIN FIVE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MIGHT TRULY PICK UP BERTHA BEYOND THAT
TIME. IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO TROUGHS...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW
MUCH OF A RIDGE MIGHT FORM NORTH OF BERTHA...AND SOME OF THEM
FORECAST BERTHA TO STALL WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION ON DAY 5...IN RESPONSE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST
TO BE NOT FAR NORTHEAST OF BERTHA BY THAT TIME. THE RESULT OF THE
COMPLICATED SET OF INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS IS A CONSENSUS THAT
LEADS ME TO SLOW DOWN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY...ALSO
WITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST...ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THAT SIMPLY BENDS BERTHA'S MOTION GRADUALLY TO THE
RIGHT... AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 3 KT THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST.
SOME ERRATIC MOTION AT SOME POINT ALONG THE WAY WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING.

THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OCCURRING IN
BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN EACH ADVISORY PACKAGE...HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS NOW
REACHED 58%.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 29.4N 62.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 62.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 30.6N 62.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 31.2N 62.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 31.7N 62.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 62.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 34.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 60.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

316
WTNT22 KNHC 120833
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 62.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 55 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 62.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.1N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.7N 62.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.3N 62.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.9N 62.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 35.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 36.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 62.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

103
WTNT32 KNHC 120837
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOTION OR INTENSITY OF BERTHA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD
OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...29.7 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 121143
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...BERTHA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
SHOULD BEGIN LATER THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION
COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.7 N...62.6W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 121433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...BERTHA REMAINS ADRIFT...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR LATER TODAY.
THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION
COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL CHECK
BERTHA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


WTNT22 KNHC 121432
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.2N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 62.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

400
WTNT42 KNHC 121433
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS
OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING
AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND.

BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE
NORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A
GENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA
TOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.9N 62.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 30.2N 62.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.7N 62.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 62.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.5N 60.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 121733
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
200 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER BERTHA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT THE MOTION COULD
OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$

[cycloneye]

517
WTNT32 KNHC 122035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A NORTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE SLOWLY PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
OF BERMUDA...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT THE MOTION COULD
OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 984
MB...29.06 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 1 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT42 KNHC 122037
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS COMPLETED TWO PASSES THROUGH THE EYE OF
BERTHA AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 79 AND 74 KT. THE
SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE DID NOT REPORT ANY HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...IN FACT...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE 58 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KNOTS...MAKING BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE NOT HOSTILE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT BERTHA HAS BEEN LOCATED
TOO MANY HOURS IN THE SAME AREA PRODUCING UPWELLING. THE HURRICANE
HAS LOST A LOT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS LARGE AND VIGOROUS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED.
THEREFORE...BERTHA COULD GATHER SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT GETS OUT THAT
AREA OF COOL WATERS INDUCED BY THE HURRICANE ITSELF. FOR
NOW...BERTHA IS KEPT AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BERTHA IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LARGER AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO....SO ONLY
A PAINFULLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND THREE
DAYS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND LOCATED BETWEEN AN EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH AND A LARGER CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE BERTHA ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED MY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 29.9N 62.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 30.4N 62.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 62.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.0N 62.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 62.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 34.5N 61.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 35.5N 59.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 56.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 122356
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...CATEGORY ONE BERTHA SITTING STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A NORTHWARD DRIFT LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY THAT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERTHA WILL BE VERY SLOWLY PASSING SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY
BE ERRATIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.5 W.
MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 130245
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.8N 62.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 63.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT32 KNHC 130247
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...STATIONARY BERTHA EXPECTED TO RESUME SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
TOMORROW...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY SLOW
MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD
BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...984 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT42 KNHC 130300
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

BERTHA HAS SEEMINGLY DROPPED ANCHOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA...AND IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 12 HOURS SINCE THE CENTER HAS
MOVED ENOUGH TO ASSIGN A MEANINGFUL FORWARD MOTION. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS STUCK WITHIN A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IT SHARES WITH TWO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
AND THE OTHER ABOUT 1000 N MI TO ITS EAST. THE EASTERN LOW IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT OUT AS A BIT OF RIDGING FORMS JUST
NORTHEAST OF BERTHA TOMORROW...AND ONCE THAT FEATURE
MATERIALIZES...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AGAIN.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE
U.S. NORTHEAST COAST AND START PUSHING BERTHA EASTWARD. VERY LATE
IN THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP CLOSE BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
BERTHA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD HAVE A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT
OF MOTION BY THEN. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS...SINCE NEARLY ALL OF DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT IN
THAT DIRECTION. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT EVEN
SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN POSE CHALLENGING
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL COME TO
BERMUDA. EVIDENCE OF THAT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SOME OF THE LATEST
48-HOUR MODEL TRACKS...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF JUST A HAIR EAST OF
THE OFFICIAL...BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST. THE SPREAD AT 4-5 DAYS
IS EVEN LARGER BUT THE SENSE IS FOR A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AT A
SLIGHTLY GREATER FORWARD SPEED.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE WE HAD AIRCRAFT DATA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND KEEPING BERTHA AS A HURRICANE IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS. FOLLOWING A BRIEF STRONG
BURST AROUND 00Z...THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY ON THE
DECLINE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE...GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF OCEAN UPWELLING UNDER A STATIONARY
HURRICANE...AND SINCE WHEN BERTHA DOES GET MOVING IT SHOULD
ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.9N 62.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.2N 62.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 30.8N 62.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 63.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 33.2N 63.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 35.5N 61.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.5N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 34.5N 55.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 131135
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
800 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD
BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST
TRACK INDICATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA