WPac: TD (98W INVEST) near Hong Kong

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 117E WEST SLOWLY.

Pretty impressive.

[KWT]

Hmmm not a bad looking invest I have to admit, this area needs to be watched. What does the models suggest for this system?

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

Not bad at all.

[RattleMan]

PAGASA has named this system TD "Gener".

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "GENER"
Issued at 11:30 a.m., Friday, 04 July 2008 The Low Pressure Area (LPA) centered to the West Northwest of Coron, Palawan has developed into a tropical depression and was named "GENER".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 300 kms West Northwest of Coron, Palawan
Coordinates: 13.0°N, 117.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 11 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:
530 kms West Northwest of Coron, Palawan
Sunday morning:
870 kms West Northwest of Coron, Palawan or
250 kms South of Paracel Island


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


Tropical Depression "GENER" is expected to enhance the Southwest monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes over these areas are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.

[KWT]

Yep not a bad looking system got a good shape to it though convection isn't all that deep. I suspect though this will be our next WPAC storm as long as it can get some greater coverage of deeper convection IMO

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 115E NW SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
117.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POORLY-
ORGANIZED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 042312Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS
LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH
NO INDICATIONS OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM THE
MAHARASHTRA, LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.6E, INDICATED SLP NEAR 1007 MB
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE
LLCC SHOWED SLP VALUES OF 1009 MB AND 15-20 KNOT CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN OVERALL MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL, INVERTED TROUGH AND MOVING INTO
INCREASINGLY STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.



PAGASA has also issued its final warning on the disturbance.

[KWT]

It doesn't look great but it looks better then some systems I've seen, still got some decent convection present as well.

[Chacor]

05/0830 UTC 15.6N 112.6E T1.5/1.5 98W -- West Pacific Ocean

[RL3AO]

Up to fair.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
111.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANT. THIS LOW HAS
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DESPITE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR
THE CENTER INDICATE SLP VALUES 1004 TO 1005 MB AND 1-2 MB 24-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
CENTER AND CONVERGENT 15-20 KNOT EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE CENTER
ALONG 20N. THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, THIS IS
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EAST OF HAINAN
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SHORT WINDOW ALLOWING
THE DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP FURTHER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow, JTWC have just issued a TCFA for 98W! Looks like it could give Hong Kong a good soaking. Apparently June was the wettest month since 1897.

TPN21 PGTW 070130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 113.1E TO 22.5N 113.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8N 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A 06/2221Z QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE
CORE, AN INCREASE FROM 10 KNOTS SEEN ON THE PREVIOUS PASS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF
WINDS (APPROACHING 25 KNOTS) 2 TO 3 DEGREES FROM THE CENTER.
CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER, DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE WIND SHEAR HAS NOT INHIBITED THE LOW
CENTER FROM DEEPENING, HOWEVER. THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY
100 NM FROM THE COASTLINE, AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT IT COULD
REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH (25 KNOTS AT THE CORE) BRIEFLY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080130Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Hi and bye!!!

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

Ensure you've refreshed for the latest maps!


Tropical Disturbance (98W)

Surface Pressure and Plots


Surface Streamlines and Plots


Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 21.4N 114.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[CrazyC83]

07/1430 UTC 22.9N 115.0E OVERLAND 98W -- West Pacific Ocean

It made landfall earlier today.

[RattleMan]

Here's the cancelled TCFA message:

WTPN21 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION //
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070121Z JUL 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070130)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 114.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 114.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING DIS-
TURBANCE. EARLIER HONG KONG RADAR DATA DEPICTED A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH HAS RECENTLY TRACKED OVER LAND
AND HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME POORLY-DEFINED. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM HONG KONG SHOWED THAT THE LLCC PASSED EAST
AND WINDS HAVE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SLP
RISES (CURRENTLY 1002 MB). MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE 14
KNOTS ON THE 07/14Z OBSERVATION. THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, THEREFORE,
THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 25N 115E NORTH 10 KT.

[Chacor]

Gone.