90W Invest: TD from JMA

[RL3AO]

Way out there about 700 miles east of Guam.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did 90C cross the Dateline?

[RL3AO]

No. This is near 154E.

[bob rulz]

How are conditions around this invest?

I'd watch it closely since it's looking pretty decent and it's in a common area for formation in the WPAC (maybe a bit east). If it forms there will be plenty of water ahead of it to intensify.

[Chacor]

ATCF/NRL: 18.9N 155.5E

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 149E EAST SLOWLY.

Both positions are under some convection. Wonder which is accurate.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 149E EAST SLOWLY

----

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 154.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A DETAILED SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING MONSOON GYRE EVIDENCED BY A RELATIVELY LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION POSITIONED EAST OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE. WITHIN
THIS GYRE, THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC)
AND A CLASSIC FISH-HOOK PATTERN OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH A POORLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 060306Z
AMSU IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 051927Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED TIGHT TROUGHING
EXTENDING WEST INTO ANOTHER LLCC NEAR 21N 150E. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
SST NEAR 28C AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[KWT]

Hmmm I think it doesn't look bad right now, there is some deep convection present its just a case of seeing whether it can wrap itself around or not!

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 151E ENE SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

06z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22N 153E ENE 10 KT.

JTWC 06z position: 22.1N 152.6E, so they're now corroborating.

[KWT]

Well this hasn't really progressed in terms of development since sunday but it hasn't weakened either, just taking its time really to do anything!

[alan1961]

Is there any models for the western pacific?

[Chacor]

They don't run in the WPac on unnamed systems it appears.

[RL3AO]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.2N
152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS DISSIPATED
AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.