TS Bertha RECON Reports

[pojo]

As of right now CARCAH has NOT scheduled any recon flights to fly... this includes NOAA G4, P3 and AF aircraft.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 071300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


I don't know the exact reasons why recon has not been scheduled, but here are some possibilities that are usually tossed around in the current operations & scheduling offices...
1) availability of aircraft
2) availability of divert airports
3) availability of crews

Being that Bertha may cross in between Bermuda and the Carolinas, there is a chance that an aircraft may investigate.

Without recon, every non NHC & armchair forecasters are re-learning how to trust the NHC forecasters... they make the big bucks for a reason. Please be patient...

[senorpepr]

Thanks for the post.

[CajunMama]

Thanks for this thread pojo. This will keep everyone updated.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even so I would of loved to see recon data for Bertha, I can understand with the fuel prices. I don't believe there will be any long range recon flights this season; maybe short range flights a few hundred miles like. I worry if gas keeps going up we may not have recon any more. Let us pray that never happens.

[senorpepr]

Did pojo say anything about fuel prices?

[RL3AO]

Even so I would of loved to see recon data for Bertha, I can understand with the fuel prices. I don't believe there will be any long range recon flights this season; maybe short range flights a few hundred miles like. I worry if gas keeps going up we may not have recon any more. Let us pray that never happens.

I don't think fuel will much of a problem. The US Government can afford it.

[pojo]

the magic latitude is 55W... and we need at least 24 hours to stand up in St. Croix... at all the launch locations we have a 3 hour radius to get to the storm....3 hours to get to the storm... 6 hours in the storm and 3 hours to get back to the launch spot... that is the MAXIMUM distance for ALL the aircraft from a launch location.

[pojo]

Did pojo say anything about fuel prices?

they are WAY to high!
I don't know what they are on base at Keesler... but I paid $5.05/gal Av Fuel when I flew in Oshkosh a couple of weeks ago.

[pojo]

Even so I would of loved to see recon data for Bertha, I can understand with the fuel prices. I don't believe there will be any long range recon flights this season; maybe short range flights a few hundred miles like. I worry if gas keeps going up we may not have recon any more. Let us pray that never happens.

I don't think fuel will much of a problem. The US Government can afford it.

that they can... they'll raise taxes again....

[bob rulz]

Even so I would of loved to see recon data for Bertha, I can understand with the fuel prices. I don't believe there will be any long range recon flights this season; maybe short range flights a few hundred miles like. I worry if gas keeps going up we may not have recon any more. Let us pray that never happens.

I don't think fuel will much of a problem. The US Government can afford it.

that they can... they'll raise taxes again....

Let's not turn this into a political thread.

[KWT]

We probably won't get recon now given how far east its forecast to go theres not much point in wasting resources for it unless it shifts back westwards which is not looking at all likely right now.

[Thunder44]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 09 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-039

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF
HURRICANE BERTHA NEAR 29N 61W AT 11/1800Z.

[KWT]

Very interesting, I think if it does get closer to Bermuda then they will probably go ahead with it if it looks like its going to go well east then I think they may not even bother with it. Still we will have to wait and see got 48hrs to wait.

[HURAKAN]

WE NEED RECON!!!

[JonathanBelles]

Recon is gonna be late I think.

[KWT]

I've got a sneaky feeling they may not bother with recon given it seems to be north of forecast points again and the threat to Bermuda is starting to reduce a little again. Still I hope they do and hopefully they will catch Bertha still as a fairly decent hurricane.

[cycloneye]

They will go tommorow around 2 PM EDT.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 10 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE BERTHA.....AL022008
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102A BERTHA
C. 11/1215Z
D. 28.9N 61.9W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX HURRICANE BERTHA
NEAR 30.4N 62.0W AT 12/1800Z.

[KWT]

Well looks like they are going to go which is good to see, given the uncertainty about its track I suppose it does make sense, just hope Bertha doesn't weaken too much by that point.

Is 12.15Z the time they are leaving the base at?

[cycloneye]

[ 12.15Z the time they are leaving the base at?]

Yes.

[KWT]

Good I think I will have to watch that the whole way through will be interesting to track recon across the western Atlantic, I also see they are going into Bertha again the next day as well when its a little closer to Bermuda.