530
WTPZ31 KNHC 170242
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES
...1135 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...119.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re:
Chacor wrote:I'm going to bring up the basin-specific C-word for the first time this year. This thing looks like it could defy the odds to make the Central Pacific.
NHC has it becoming remnant at 133.5. Maybe it can do it. Its about 21 degrees away.
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375
WTPZ41 KNHC 170836
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
ELIDA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE EYE CAN NOT BE
CLEARLY SEEN ON IR IMAGES. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME
DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ELIDA WILL WEAKEN FAST...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.5N 120.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 122.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
376
WTPZ31 KNHC 170836
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST OR ABOUT 795 MILES
...1275 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...120.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 170836
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
ELIDA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE EYE CAN NOT BE
CLEARLY SEEN ON IR IMAGES. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME
DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ELIDA WILL WEAKEN FAST...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.5N 120.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 122.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
376
WTPZ31 KNHC 170836
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST OR ABOUT 795 MILES
...1275 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...120.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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900
WTPZ31 KNHC 171437
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST OR ABOUT 895 MILES
...1435 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ELIDA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...122.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
121
WTPZ41 KNHC 171438
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR-E AT 0930Z INDICATES THE CENTER OF ELIDA
IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH THAT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW DUE WESTWARD AND A LITTLE FASTER OR 270/14. OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD...LITERALLY...SINCE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...AND AT THE LONGER RANGES TO BE MORE
OF A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF...WHICH DEPICT A MOTION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL PROBABLY KEEP ELIDA OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS FOR A LITTLE LONGER...AND ON A PATH MORE PARALLEL TO THE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERMS...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
DEPICTS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONLY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IMPLIES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN
FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM...GDFL...AND HWRF FORECASTS ARE MORE
SUGGESTIVE THAT ELIDA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EVENTUAL DECAY
INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 17.1N 122.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 17.2N 127.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.2N 129.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 132.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTPZ31 KNHC 171437
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST OR ABOUT 895 MILES
...1435 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ELIDA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...122.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
121
WTPZ41 KNHC 171438
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR-E AT 0930Z INDICATES THE CENTER OF ELIDA
IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH THAT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW DUE WESTWARD AND A LITTLE FASTER OR 270/14. OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD...LITERALLY...SINCE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...AND AT THE LONGER RANGES TO BE MORE
OF A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF...WHICH DEPICT A MOTION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL PROBABLY KEEP ELIDA OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS FOR A LITTLE LONGER...AND ON A PATH MORE PARALLEL TO THE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERMS...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
DEPICTS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONLY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IMPLIES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN
FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM...GDFL...AND HWRF FORECASTS ARE MORE
SUGGESTIVE THAT ELIDA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EVENTUAL DECAY
INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 17.1N 122.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 17.2N 127.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.2N 129.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 132.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
...ELIDA STILL A HURRICANE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST OR ABOUT 955 MILES
...1535 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ELIDA ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...123.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
ELIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION...EVEN STILL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN EMBEDDED EYE
FEATURE...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE BIT TILTED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LAGGING SLIGHTLY
BEHIND TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SLOWLY
DEGRADING...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...A BLEND
OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS. WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL
THAT STRONG ALONG THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST TRACK...BUT
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...SO A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ONE MIGHT EXPECT THAT A
RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE SUCH AS ELIDA COULD WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY
OVER COOLER WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE SHIPS THAT OFTEN DEPICTS WEAKENING OF EASTERN PACIFIC
SYSTEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SUGGESTS IT COULD HANG ON AS A
TROPICAL STORM FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
A LITTLE BEYOND THAT. THAT IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS ABOUT 270/13...AND
THE TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING REASONING ARE UNCHANGED. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD HEAD ALMOST DUE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH WHEN IT IS A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHER WEST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF AND GFDL
TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 17.2N 123.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.1N 130.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.9N 132.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 150.0W 25 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
...ELIDA STILL A HURRICANE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST OR ABOUT 955 MILES
...1535 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ELIDA ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...123.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
ELIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION...EVEN STILL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN EMBEDDED EYE
FEATURE...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE BIT TILTED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LAGGING SLIGHTLY
BEHIND TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SLOWLY
DEGRADING...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...A BLEND
OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS. WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL
THAT STRONG ALONG THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST TRACK...BUT
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...SO A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ONE MIGHT EXPECT THAT A
RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE SUCH AS ELIDA COULD WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY
OVER COOLER WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE SHIPS THAT OFTEN DEPICTS WEAKENING OF EASTERN PACIFIC
SYSTEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SUGGESTS IT COULD HANG ON AS A
TROPICAL STORM FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
A LITTLE BEYOND THAT. THAT IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS ABOUT 270/13...AND
THE TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING REASONING ARE UNCHANGED. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD HEAD ALMOST DUE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH WHEN IT IS A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHER WEST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF AND GFDL
TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 17.2N 123.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.1N 130.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.9N 132.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 150.0W 25 KT
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HURAKAN
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192
WTPZ21 KNHC 180237
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0300 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.0W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 129.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.8N 134.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME
947
WTPZ31 KNHC 180240
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
...ELIDA WEAKENS A LITTLE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL A HURRICANE...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES
...1655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ELIDA ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...124.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME
WTPZ21 KNHC 180237
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0300 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.0W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 129.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.8N 134.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME
947
WTPZ31 KNHC 180240
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
...ELIDA WEAKENS A LITTLE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL A HURRICANE...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES
...1655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ELIDA ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...124.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME
0 likes
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
072
WTPZ41 KNHC 180819
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMAINING BAND SITUATED OVER
THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 0238Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
INDICATED WINDS OF 50 KT OR LESS....BUT THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WERE 55 AND 65 KT. SO AS A
COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT WHICH
COULD POSSIBLY BE A BIT GENEROUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON
ELIDA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WITH TIME. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND MATCHES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE
GFDL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ESTIMATED 270/11...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LAYER STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LITTLE
DEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0238Z QUIKSCAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 17.5N 125.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.2N 130.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 132.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 135.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.7N 140.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 145.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
222
WTPZ31 KNHC 180818
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1100 MILES...1775 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ELIDA ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...125.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 180819
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMAINING BAND SITUATED OVER
THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 0238Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
INDICATED WINDS OF 50 KT OR LESS....BUT THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WERE 55 AND 65 KT. SO AS A
COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT WHICH
COULD POSSIBLY BE A BIT GENEROUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON
ELIDA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WITH TIME. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND MATCHES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE
GFDL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ESTIMATED 270/11...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LAYER STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LITTLE
DEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0238Z QUIKSCAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 17.5N 125.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.2N 130.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 132.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 135.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.7N 140.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 145.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
222
WTPZ31 KNHC 180818
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1100 MILES...1775 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ELIDA ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...125.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
0 likes
Elida might not make it into the CPac after all...
WTPZ31 KNHC 181443
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1185 MILES...1905 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...127.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTPZ31 KNHC 181443
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1185 MILES...1905 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...127.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
WTPZ41 KNHC 181450
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
ELIDA IS TRYING TO FIGHT OFF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH COOL SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT RECENTLY HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VERY
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY TREND IS SHARPLY
DOWNWARD SINCE THE UNDERLYING WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
NOT GET ANY WARMER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BY THAT
TIME...DEEP CONVECTION MIGHT BE JUST ABOUT GONE. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LONG ELIDA CAN REMAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN
SOONER.
THE MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD OR 270/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS ELIDA
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 17.6N 127.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 129.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 131.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.1N 134.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
ELIDA IS TRYING TO FIGHT OFF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH COOL SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT RECENTLY HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VERY
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY TREND IS SHARPLY
DOWNWARD SINCE THE UNDERLYING WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
NOT GET ANY WARMER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BY THAT
TIME...DEEP CONVECTION MIGHT BE JUST ABOUT GONE. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LONG ELIDA CAN REMAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN
SOONER.
THE MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD OR 270/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS ELIDA
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 17.6N 127.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 129.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 131.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.1N 134.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 182129
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
ELIDA IS NOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH JUST A
LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS USING A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI
NUMBERS SPAN A WIDE RANGE...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES AND IS SET TO 35 KT. ELIDA IS OVER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23 CELSIUS...AND ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WARMER ANYTIME
SOON...SO THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR MORE THAN HALF A DAY OR SO.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES REGARDING THE PATH OF ELIDA. THE
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/13...AND THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/0600Z 17.7N 135.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 137.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTPZ41 KNHC 182129
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
ELIDA IS NOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH JUST A
LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS USING A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI
NUMBERS SPAN A WIDE RANGE...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES AND IS SET TO 35 KT. ELIDA IS OVER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23 CELSIUS...AND ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WARMER ANYTIME
SOON...SO THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR MORE THAN HALF A DAY OR SO.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES REGARDING THE PATH OF ELIDA. THE
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/13...AND THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/0600Z 17.7N 135.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 137.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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WTPZ41 KNHC 190247
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
AN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA
HAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THIS WEAKENING IS
REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE
LOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD
MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
AN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA
HAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THIS WEAKENING IS
REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE
LOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD
MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
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