EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

[HURAKAN]

Her show this year was lame!!! In 2002 it was much better and attracted a lot of attention.

[KWT]

I don't know Hurakan 75kts isn't waht I would call lame, sure compared with the 2002 display it wasn't too hot but it was still the strongest system in the EPAC thus far I believe.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 152041
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008

THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS
SYMETRIC WITH TIME AS EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE STORM. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS...WHICH DECREASED TO
3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE
POINTS TO ELIDA CONTINING ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THERE IS OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITHIN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT ELIDA WILL GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE STORM MOTION UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE BY 24
TO 36 HOURS. AT THAT POINT...ELIDA SHOULD TAKE AN ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD PATH. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE
THAT TAKES ELIDA ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK OWING TO THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CYCLONE.

DATA FROM A 1322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL
34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHERN SEMICRICLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.5N 113.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 115.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.3N 117.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.9N 123.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.1N 128.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.6W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BANN

[KWT]

Yep looks like Elida is starting to weaken now, only just a hurricane at the moment it appears.

[AnnularCane]

Call me crazy, but I think she's actually looking better.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/avn.jpg

[HURAKAN]

703
WTPZ31 KNHC 160247
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES
...850 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...114.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

691
WTPZ41 KNHC 160250
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008

ELIDA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WRAPPING NICELY AROUND A
MICROWAVE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT
00Z WERE T4.0...65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AT THAT TIME WAS 61 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
ELIDA STILL HAS 12-24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND THE
EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS MODEST. THUS...A BRIEF
REINTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...ELIDA'S PASSAGE OVER SUB-26C WATER SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE
NEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE GFS DIDN'T APPEAR TO INITIALIZE ELIDA STRONGLY
ENOUGH...AND SEEMS TO MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TOO QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE REMAINING
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...UKMET/GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.4N 114.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 16.6N 116.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 17.4N 121.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 17.6N 123.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

Talk about restrengthening... from 65 back to 75 kts.

WTPZ21 KNHC 160850
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0900 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 115.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 115.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 125.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ31 KNHC 160854
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES
...920 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS
ELIDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...115.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 160855
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

ELIDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN EYE BRIEFLY
APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITHIN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...HOWEVER...ELIDA WILL
BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY
FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE
NEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IF ELIDA
REMAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WOULD
LIKELY TAKE A TRACK A LITTLE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 16.5N 115.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 117.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.8N 125.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Its looking goood again just as it was starting to look like it was weakening again, deep convection though still no eye mind you!

[Chacor]

Held at 75 kts.

[yzerfan]

Is it me, or does that look like Africa in the top right corner for the 8:00am 7/16 5 day track? Wouldn't be the first time they confused Elida with an Atlantic storm.

[RL3AO]

Is it me, or does that look like Africa in the top right corner for the 8:00am 7/16 5 day track? Wouldn't be the first time they confused Elida with an Atlantic storm.

Nope. That is a slim part of So. California, SW Arizona, and NW Mexico. On the far right hand side between the white image and the side is a sliver of the Gulf of California.

[KWT]

A touch but its clear its not with the longitude measurements!
Anyway still a hurricane and progged to be for the next 24-36hrs as well.

[yzerfan]

Okay, I see Baja now. On first glance, I was mistaking the Cali-Mexico border for the Algerian one.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Is it just me or does she look almost annular?


What a beautiful hurricane she is though.

[WmE]

Is it just me or does she look almost annular?
What a beautiful hurricane she is though.

It's looking quite interesting indeed, especially this lack of rainbands. A bigger eye and I'd say it would be annular.

[KWT]

Nope the eye is far too small for this to be Annular, that does look like a pinhole eye however!
Still it doesn't have much in the way of feeder bands...

May well be undergoing some strengthening again based on that, lots of deep convection!

[RL3AO]

Very very annular looking hurricane. Of course the eye is too small to be completly annular.

[AnnularCane]

Her show this year was lame!!! In 2002 it was much better and attracted a lot of attention.

She must have heard you.