EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

[cycloneye]

The latest best track by ATCF increases the winds to 90kts:

EP, 06, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1172W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1012, 270, 10, 0, 0,

[RL3AO]

The latest best track by ATCF increases the winds to 90kts:

EP, 06, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1172W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1012, 270, 10, 0, 0,

Well...DUH!

[HurricaneHunter914]

lol, just looking at it you would know that this being 75 kts is bs. Imagine the craziness of the board if this was in the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

That looks more like 100 kt to me.

[Cyclenall]

I haven't been following Elida for days now, but I checked and thought...this is rapidly strengthening!!! Major status not far off based on those images. Wasn't it suppose to weaken right now? It's by far the best looking Epac system of the year.

[Brent]

Her show this year was lame!!! In 2002 it was much better and attracted a lot of attention.

This post looks funny now.

[RL3AO]

Look at how quickly the eye moves from the west edge to the center (aka convection develops/wraps around).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=EP062008&starting_image=2008EP06_4KMIRIMG_200807120345.GIF

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, that's pretty significant improvement.

BTW, thanks, RL3AO, for putting that up on the 94L thread - embarrassing though it is, I have to admit I wasn't paying attention.

[Hockey007]

Code: Select all

                      UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  16 JUL 2008    Time :   173000 UTC
      Lat :   16:50:45 N     Lon :  117:08:35 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.9 / 990.6mb/ 63.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                3.9     4.2     6.0

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +2.2mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

 Center Temp : -32.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

 Scene Type : EYE 



Raw t number of 6.0, which supports 115 kts. I doubt it's quite that high but it does seem like it is intensifying rapidly... and the water's not even that warm . I don't think I'm supposed to be using raw t numbers that way but yeah...

[KWT]

Elida really is looking good now got that pinhole eye there which is a big sign of rapid strengthening occuring. Also yep storngest EPAC system by far so far, this could well become a major hurricane afterall!
Also it was forecasted to start weakening in about 24hrs.

[RL3AO]

Sat image hasn't updated in 90 minutes, but this is good enough to show how quickly Elida strengthened.

[KWT]

Wow just 3hrs difference there, if thats not rapid strengthening I don't know what is!
I'd love to know why its strengthened as rapidly as it has, its not surprising it has given the pinhole eye but why has that now decided to show itself.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 06, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1172W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ

90 knots.

[Cyclenall]

I see no pinhole eye at all. The eye is small to medium.

[KWT]

IMO Cyclenall thats at the least a small eye on IR, granted it may just be that the eye isn't quite as evident as it is on the Vis where it does look a little bigger.

[CrazyC83]

16/1800 UTC 16.9N 117.2W T5.0/5.0 ELIDA -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

357
WTPZ41 KNHC 162026
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS
COULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
SHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

I think Elida didn't like when I said that her show this year had been lame. Of course, compared to 2002 when Elida was a category 5 hurricane. Now she is doing a great show as a nice fish.

[KWT]

Ok now the eye is clearly a lot larger, looks like a solid category-2 hurricane now IMO and I'd agree with the 90kt estimate.

[Chacor]

No longer looking as good.



Still almost a perfect CDO though.