EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Hurricane Elida
The latest best track by ATCF increases the winds to 90kts:
EP, 06, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1172W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1012, 270, 10, 0, 0,
EP, 06, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1172W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1012, 270, 10, 0, 0,
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Re: EPAC: Hurricane Elida
cycloneye wrote:The latest best track by ATCF increases the winds to 90kts:
EP, 06, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1172W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1012, 270, 10, 0, 0,
Well...DUH!
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Look at how quickly the eye moves from the west edge to the center (aka convection develops/wraps around).
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=EP062008&starting_image=2008EP06_4KMIRIMG_200807120345.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=EP062008&starting_image=2008EP06_4KMIRIMG_200807120345.GIF
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Code: Select all
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2008 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 16:50:45 N Lon : 117:08:35 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.6mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 4.2 6.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km
Center Temp : -32.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Raw t number of 6.0, which supports 115 kts. I doubt it's quite that high but it does seem like it is intensifying rapidly... and the water's not even that warm . I don't think I'm supposed to be using raw t numbers that way but yeah...
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Hurricane Elida
357
WTPZ41 KNHC 162026
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS
COULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
SHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 162026
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS
COULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
SHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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