EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:13 am

Here we go with 98E south of El Salvador.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep982008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807101254
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008071012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982008
EP, 98, 2008071012, , BEST, 0, 80N, 905W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:25 am

Some nice curvature.

KWT · #3 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:33 am

Yep that doesn't look at all bad right now, some decent convection as well though 97E had the same look before it weakened, though it did eventually become a TD.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:36 am

WHXX01 KMIA 101331
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1331 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080710 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.0N 90.5W 8.7N 92.5W 9.4N 94.6W 10.4N 96.8W
BAMD 8.0N 90.5W 8.5N 92.6W 8.9N 95.1W 9.5N 97.7W
BAMM 8.0N 90.5W 8.7N 92.6W 9.4N 94.9W 10.4N 97.4W
LBAR 8.0N 90.5W 8.6N 92.7W 9.9N 95.3W 11.4N 98.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 99.1W 13.4N 102.1W 14.7N 104.8W 15.8N 107.0W
BAMD 9.9N 100.2W 11.0N 104.7W 12.1N 108.0W 13.3N 111.4W
BAMM 11.3N 100.0W 13.2N 104.0W 14.8N 107.4W 16.4N 110.8W
LBAR 12.8N 101.7W 15.8N 108.3W 16.2N 115.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 90.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 88.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Chacor · #5 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:43 am

TCFA. Pretty quick.

WTPN21 PHNC 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 89.9W TO 9.8N 97.9W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
101400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
90.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 90.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 755 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. A 100747Z AMSR-E 36V/H DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. OVERALL, THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE 36 GHZ
SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 111430Z.//

KWT · #6 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:52 am

Yep not surprised its been issued to be honest given how it looks right now I just hope it doesn't do what 97E did to us!
Still a fair chance this may eventually be our next EPAC depression whether it does anything more who knows!

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:02 am

DESTRUCTION5 · #8 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:03 am

uggh..Cant wait to watch this one die a boring death..LOL

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:09 am

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:11 am

Weird, after a TCFA has been issued.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:16 am

I havent seen a TCFA issued two hours after a invest has been up at NRL but that :uarrow:

yes is weird.

HurricaneRobert · #12 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:39 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:uggh..Cant wait to watch this one die a boring death..LOL

Hope you're in a hurricane-prone area when you say that, so you can enjoy the skyrocketing insurance rates, gas shortages, etc. That's before a storm even comes your way.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #13 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:42 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:uggh..Cant wait to watch this one die a boring death..LOL

Hope you're in a hurricane-prone area when you say that, so you can enjoy the skyrocketing insurance rates, gas shortages, etc. That's before a storm even comes your way.

That better be a joke? Because this is the eastern pacific in this is not a threat to land. :roll:

Also as far as I'm concerned your more likely to be hit by a hurricane in a hurricane prone area then to get flooded on a major river in the midwest. So I'm not going to say any more.

HurricaneRobert · #14 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That better be a joke? Because this is the eastern pacific in this is not a threat to land.

Also as far as I'm concerned your more likely to be hit by a hurricane in a hurricane prone area then to get flooded on a major river in the midwest. So I'm not going to say any more.

You don't know what he was talking about. It's not the first time he's said something like this.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:51 am

Ok guys lets go back to discuss all about invest 98E.

#16 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:34 pm

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *      INVEST  EP982008  07/10/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    36    39    46    53    57    57    57    57    59    60
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    36    39    46    53    57    57    57    57    59    60
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    26    27    29    31    32    33    34    35    36    36

SHEAR (KTS)        6     9    12    10    14    19    20    21    22    23    19    20    14
SHEAR DIR         72    50    40    34    23    12    41    49    63    55    56    63    92
SST (C)         28.3  28.2  28.2  28.3  28.4  29.0  29.0  28.9  28.7  28.3  27.8  27.4  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   147   147   147   148   149   156   156   154   151   147   142   138   132
200 MB T (C)   -55.0 -54.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     6     6     6     7     6     8     8    10     9     9     8
700-500 MB RH     85    82    81    84    83    83    82    79    78    69    71    60    60
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     6     5     5     4  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    46    40    45    46    48    35    33    43    41    27    16    17     9
200 MB DIV        13     8    24    31    36    53    64    74    25    30     3     1    -4
LAND (KM)        560   599   603   611   629   602   565   549   548   539   566   606   694
LAT (DEG N)      8.0   8.4   8.7   9.1   9.4  10.4  11.3  12.4  13.2  14.0  14.8  15.6  16.4
LONG(DEG W)     90.5  91.6  92.6  93.8  94.9  97.4 100.0 102.2 104.0 105.7 107.4 109.1 110.8
STM SPEED (KT)    10    11    11    12    12    13    13    11    10     9     9     9     9

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  500  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  12.5 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   9.  16.  22.  27.  30.  32.  32.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   3.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.   0.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   8.   8.   8.   7.   6.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   3.   5.   7.  13.  19.  25.  28.  29.  30.  31.  32.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   3.   5.   6.   8.   8.   7.   5.   4.   3.   4.   4.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       2.   4.   6.   7.   8.   8.   7.   5.   3.   2.   3.   3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   7.  11.  14.  21.  28.  32.  32.  32.  32.  34.  35.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008     INVEST 07/10/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.2 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  22.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 122.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  85.4 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.0 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    59% is   4.7 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    27% is   3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008     INVEST 07/10/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

RI index is pretty high.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:44 pm

445
ABPZ20 KNHC 101723
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
POORLY-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

RL3AO,what is the scale for this TWO.

#18 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:01 pm

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:10 pm

Once again, the NHC seeing no development in the near future (< 24 hrs), which makes the TCFA even more weird (maybe obsolete). Nonetheless, the system is small in size and could develop tomorrow or the day after.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:18 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 101910
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1910 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080710 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1800 080711 0600 080711 1800 080712 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.8N 90.7W 8.6N 92.7W 9.6N 94.8W 10.6N 96.9W
BAMD 7.8N 90.7W 8.3N 93.0W 9.0N 95.5W 9.7N 98.1W
BAMM 7.8N 90.7W 8.6N 92.8W 9.5N 95.2W 10.5N 97.7W
LBAR 7.8N 90.7W 8.4N 92.6W 9.7N 95.1W 11.1N 98.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1800 080713 1800 080714 1800 080715 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 98.7W 12.6N 100.9W 12.8N 103.1W 12.2N 105.4W
BAMD 10.3N 100.6W 11.0N 104.8W 11.4N 107.7W 11.6N 110.7W
BAMM 11.4N 100.0W 12.6N 103.4W 13.3N 106.1W 13.5N 109.0W
LBAR 12.3N 101.4W 14.9N 107.4W 18.0N 112.6W 17.4N 116.0W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS
DSHP 44KTS 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.8N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 7.8N LONM12 = 89.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 87.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC

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