564
WHXX01 KMIA 140051
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC MON JUL 14 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP062008) 20080714 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000 080715 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 106.2W 16.3N 107.8W 17.1N 109.8W 17.7N 111.9W
BAMD 15.4N 106.2W 15.9N 108.6W 16.5N 111.2W 17.1N 114.1W
BAMM 15.4N 106.2W 16.1N 108.3W 16.8N 110.7W 17.3N 113.5W
LBAR 15.4N 106.2W 16.1N 108.6W 17.1N 111.4W 18.0N 114.5W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS 64KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080716 0000 080717 0000 080718 0000 080719 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 114.7W 18.3N 121.2W 17.5N 127.7W 16.5N 133.4W
BAMD 17.7N 117.4W 18.2N 124.6W 18.9N 131.3W 19.9N 136.2W
BAMM 17.8N 116.8W 18.0N 124.3W 18.2N 131.5W 18.9N 137.4W
LBAR 19.1N 118.0W 21.3N 124.8W 23.2N 130.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 60KTS 50KTS 45KTS
DSHP 66KTS 60KTS 50KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 106.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 103.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 100.9W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNN
EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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454
WTPZ21 KNHC 140245
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0300 UTC MON JUL 14 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.2W
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
842
WTPZ41 KNHC 140250
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008
SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER
ELIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES AND IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. IT IS TEMPTING TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY A
LITTLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF AN EYE FORMING IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ELIDA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.
AFTER THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD. DUE TO THE
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS UNCHANGED THEREAFTER.
WITH THE TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...ELIDA COULD HAVE A FEW
MORE HOURS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS
ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF
PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP ELIDA BELOW 65 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND MORE TIME OVER 26 DEGREE C OR GREATER WATER...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...AND ONCE AGAIN
BRINGS ELIDA TO HURRICANE STATUS. LOOKING AT THE INTENSITY
PROBABILITY TABLE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS ADVISORY...THE CHANCES OF
ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS ARE ABOUT 50-50.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.5N 106.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ21 KNHC 140245
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0300 UTC MON JUL 14 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.2W
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
842
WTPZ41 KNHC 140250
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008
SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER
ELIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES AND IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. IT IS TEMPTING TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY A
LITTLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF AN EYE FORMING IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ELIDA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.
AFTER THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD. DUE TO THE
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS UNCHANGED THEREAFTER.
WITH THE TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...ELIDA COULD HAVE A FEW
MORE HOURS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS
ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF
PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP ELIDA BELOW 65 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND MORE TIME OVER 26 DEGREE C OR GREATER WATER...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...AND ONCE AGAIN
BRINGS ELIDA TO HURRICANE STATUS. LOOKING AT THE INTENSITY
PROBABILITY TABLE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS ADVISORY...THE CHANCES OF
ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS ARE ABOUT 50-50.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.5N 106.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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915
WTPZ31 KNHC 140846
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
...ELIDA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EAST PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES
...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...108.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
063
WTPZ41 KNHC 140847
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED
TO 4.0 AND A RECENT AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED
BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING ELIDA THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. GIVEN THE PRESENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. IN A DAY OR SO...ELIDA WILL BEGIN
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.
ELIDA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 285/14. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS ELIDA'S WESTWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH BASED ON A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.2N 108.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 16.6N 109.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 17.3N 114.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 123.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ31 KNHC 140846
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
...ELIDA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EAST PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES
...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...108.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
063
WTPZ41 KNHC 140847
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED
TO 4.0 AND A RECENT AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED
BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING ELIDA THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. GIVEN THE PRESENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. IN A DAY OR SO...ELIDA WILL BEGIN
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.
ELIDA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 285/14. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS ELIDA'S WESTWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH BASED ON A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.2N 108.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 16.6N 109.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 17.3N 114.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 123.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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EP, 06, 2008071412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1086W, 70, 984, HU, 34, NEQ, 75, 60, 60, 45, 1010, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D,
EP, 06, 2008071412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1086W, 70, 984, HU, 50, NEQ, 45, 30, 30, 20, 1010, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D,
EP, 06, 2008071412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1086W, 70, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 10, 1010, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D,
EP, 06, 2008071412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1086W, 70, 984, HU, 50, NEQ, 45, 30, 30, 20, 1010, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D,
EP, 06, 2008071412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1086W, 70, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 10, 1010, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, D,
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Centre relocated southwards.
552
WTPZ41 KNHC 141455
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO
AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES
ALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT.
RECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL
SOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD
SOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST
DUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS. AT THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS
ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE
TOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL
BE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE
FORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.9N 109.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 112.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.2N 117.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 129.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
552
WTPZ41 KNHC 141455
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO
AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES
ALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT.
RECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL
SOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD
SOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST
DUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS. AT THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS
ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE
TOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS. DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL
BE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE
FORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.9N 109.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 112.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.2N 117.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 129.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
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Re: EPAC: Hurricane Elida
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Hurricane Elida
WTPZ41 KNHC 142049
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
A RAGGED EYE MADE AN APPEARANCE IN ELIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE EYE REMAINED HIDDEN IN THE INFRARED.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5...OR
ABOUT 75-80 KT. A 1215Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED ABOUT 80 KT. THE ADT
INDICATED A WEAKER SYSTEM OF 65 KT...THOUGH THIS TECHNIQUE MAY
HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN THAT THE EYE WAS NOT APPARENT IN THE INFRARED.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.
A 1313Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS ALONG WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND MOTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY 275 DEGREES
AT 9 KT. ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTER THAT...ELIDA SHOULD PROCEED WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
RATE AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF
MODELS...AS THE HWRF HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA AND
NOGAPS MAINTAINS TOO LARGE A VORTEX TOO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL ALSO PORTRAYS A UNREALISTIC-LOOKING FUJIWARA
INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
ELIDA...SO THIS MODEL TOO IS DOWNPLAYED. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
ELIDA MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR. THE RATHER
SHARP BOUNDARY IN THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF ELIDA MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASED SHEAR
ABOUT TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HRWF...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE PASS AT 15Z ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENT...AND
EXPANSION OUTWARD...OF THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII AS ANALYZED BY TAFB.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.0N 111.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 17.1N 115.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 126.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 129.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
A RAGGED EYE MADE AN APPEARANCE IN ELIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE EYE REMAINED HIDDEN IN THE INFRARED.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5...OR
ABOUT 75-80 KT. A 1215Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED ABOUT 80 KT. THE ADT
INDICATED A WEAKER SYSTEM OF 65 KT...THOUGH THIS TECHNIQUE MAY
HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN THAT THE EYE WAS NOT APPARENT IN THE INFRARED.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.
A 1313Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS ALONG WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND MOTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY 275 DEGREES
AT 9 KT. ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTER THAT...ELIDA SHOULD PROCEED WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
RATE AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF
MODELS...AS THE HWRF HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA AND
NOGAPS MAINTAINS TOO LARGE A VORTEX TOO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL ALSO PORTRAYS A UNREALISTIC-LOOKING FUJIWARA
INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
ELIDA...SO THIS MODEL TOO IS DOWNPLAYED. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
ELIDA MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR. THE RATHER
SHARP BOUNDARY IN THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF ELIDA MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASED SHEAR
ABOUT TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HRWF...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE PASS AT 15Z ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENT...AND
EXPANSION OUTWARD...OF THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII AS ANALYZED BY TAFB.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.0N 111.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 17.1N 115.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 126.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 129.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
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HURAKAN
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116
WTPZ21 KNHC 150248
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0300 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.1W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ21 KNHC 150248
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0300 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.1W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Hurricane Elida
Elida has been forgotten. 
WTPZ41 KNHC 150857
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS EXPERIENCING
EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC. WHILE THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AT T4.5. THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ESSENTIALLY SHOW ELIDA MAINTAINING ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE ELIDA WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING IN
LINE WITH THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/10. THE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDING THE STEERING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED AS
ELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS
BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.2N 111.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 112.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 115.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.4N 119.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ41 KNHC 150857
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS EXPERIENCING
EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC. WHILE THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AT T4.5. THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ESSENTIALLY SHOW ELIDA MAINTAINING ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE ELIDA WILL
BE ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING IN
LINE WITH THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/10. THE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDING THE STEERING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED AS
ELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS
BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.2N 111.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 112.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 115.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.4N 119.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HPC is doing the issuing, NHC might be having technical issues.
WTPZ31 KNHC 151440
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BANN
WTPZ31 KNHC 151440
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BANN
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