WPAC: TS Kalmaegi (JTWC: TS 08W)

[Chacor]

By the way, thread title needs updating, as PAGASA upgraded to a typhoon a while back.

[btangy]

It looks like from the radar imagery that Kalmaegi has taken a hard left right into Taiwan. The 00Z GFDN and JGSM were showing this to some extent, but perhaps not to the same degree. The 00Z ECMWF also had a left turn, but N of the island. Tremendous rainfall rates occurring over the island right now undoubtedly will lead to severe flash foods and mudslides in the interior. Precipitation estimates of >300mm yesterday (>12") in the southern 1/3 of Taiwan along with rainfall rates right now of 50-75mm+/hour (~2-3"+/hour) according to the Central Weather Bureau.

[wxmann_91]

Orographics must be causing some insane rainfall rates on the western slopes of the mountains that run N-S through Taiwan. Unfortunately the western slopes also have a higher population density. Situation could be real bad in that area.

[Chacor]

Didn't see this posted: downgraded to STS.


WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 24.9N 121.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 28.5N 120.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 191800UTC 32.3N 122.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 201800UTC 36.6N 127.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[RL3AO]

Final advisory from PAGASA as it moves out of its AOR.

[wyq614]

Taiwan has reported 1 death.

[wyq614]

0600 UTC, the convection of northern quadrant has significantly waned. It may indicate that Kalmaegi is making landfall along Fujian Coast.

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 180600
CCAA 18060 47644 KALMAEGI(0807) 11262 11204 13206 235// 93310=

T3.5.

[wyq614]

0500-0600 UTC,

52mm rainfall in 60 minutes in Pingtan County, Fujian Province

[Chacor]

Downgraded to TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 26.2N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 29.7N 120.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 200600UTC 34.5N 124.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 210600UTC 38.4N 127.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HurricaneBill]

At least 6 dead after Typhoon Kalmaegi lashes Taiwan

2 deaths have also been reported in the Philippines.

[KWT]

Does look good right now, got some very deep convection firing up over the center again, makes a change from the strange look it had last night!
Can only assume its currently strengthening.

[Chacor]

Still T3.5.

TCNA21 RJTD 181200
CCAA 18120 47644 KALMAEGI(0807) 11268 11201 13304 235// 93406=

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 26.8N 120.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 30.9N 121.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 201200UTC 36.0N 124.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 211200UTC 40.0N 128.5E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[btangy]

CNN reported one spot in Taiwan received over 40 inches of rain in 24 hours. That would surely rival some of the world's daily records. I'm not sure of the source, but it seems possible given the intensity of the convection over Taiwan yesterday.

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 181800
CCAA 18180 47644 KALMAEGI(0807) 11272 11196 13204 230// 93106=

Down to T3.0.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 28.4N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 33.5N 123.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210000UTC 38.5N 126.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220000UTC 40.3N 129.2E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HurricaneBill]

Typhoon damage rising; 13 dead

8 people are missing.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Expecting TS Kalmaegi to sweep through Shanghai later this afternoon. Still a bit of convection left so might get a few squalls but I'm not expecting much. I'll have my camera at hand in case anything of interest takes place.

[Ed Mahmoud]

CNN reported one spot in Taiwan received over 40 inches of rain in 24 hours. That would surely rival some of the world's daily records. I'm not sure of the source, but it seems possible given the intensity of the convection over Taiwan yesterday.

That would be a mainland US rainfall record for a 24 hour period, or very close to it.

CLAUDETTE (TS - July 24th landfall)
Claudette made landfall near Beaumont with maximum sustained winds of 55 mph. The storm's greatest impact, however, was rainfall and flooding. Areas south of Houston recorded 30-40" of rain in a three day period, including a record setting 27.75" at Alvin in one day. An unofficial but reliable rain gauge just north of Alvin recorded 43" of rainfall from noon on the 25th to noon on the 26th. Other rainfall amounts for the period July 24-26 included near 20 inches near Freeport, 13 inches at Port Arthur, and 12 inches at Texas City. Damage from flooding was estimated at 3/4 billion dollars.

An ISOHYET MAP showing total rainfall from Tropical Storm Claudette can be used to see what locations across Southeast Texas received the most rain. Alvin's 43 inch total in 24 hours still stands as the continental United States record!

25.4 mm per inch, IIRC.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1970s.htm