WPAC: TS Kalmaegi (JTWC: TS 08W)

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#61 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:25 pm

JTWC peaks at 105 kt with the center just missing Taipei and Shanghai.
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#62 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:06 am

With Kalmaegi moving away from the Philippines and toward Taiwan, I've updated the zoomed surface plots map accordingly.
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#63 Postby RattleMan » Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:41 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 22.7N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 26.1N 121.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 190000UTC 29.7N 121.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 200000UTC 33.0N 124.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
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#64 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:58 am

JMA's 06z fix is due any time now. Unless this thing gets a 5.5 (85 kts on JMA's Dvorak scale) I think 75 kts is going to be about as high as it goes.
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#65 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:59 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 23.2N 122.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 26.5N 120.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 190600UTC 30.0N 121.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 200600UTC 33.3N 124.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi (PAGASA: TS Helen)

#66 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:28 am

If this misses Taiwan could be a big impact on the coast of China. I'm on standby to intercept this. Got a few things to work out but if and when I get a plan together I'll post it here.
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#67 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:33 am

It looks like its close to land but its still off-shore right now.

Anyway last hour or so there looks like a shallow eye has emerged and this is looking real good now, strong circulation present with some real deep convection and really strong feeder band on the SW side.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi (PAGASA: TS Helen)

#68 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:32 am

Here's the latest TAF for Songshan airport in Taipei:

TAF RCSS 170400Z 170606 08020G30KT 6000 SHRA SCT012 BKN025 BKN050
TEMPO 0920 10025G35KT 0800 SHRA SCT006 FEW008CB BKN010 OVC030
TEMPO 2006 29012KT 2000 SHRA SCT007 FEW010CB BKN012 OVC030
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:58 am

Image
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#70 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:22 am

JMA now doing hourly bulletins due to proximity to Japanese territory.

TY 0807 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 11:45 UTC, 17 July 2008
<Analyses at 17/11 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°35'(23.6°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE300km(160NM)
NW220km(120NM)

存在地域 与那国島の南西 約120km (Current position: 120 km SW of Yonaguni)
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:33 am

Image

Close to landfall.
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#72 Postby bob rulz » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:53 am

Image

Wow, it looks like Taiwan has split this storm in half; that's probably the weirdest-looking storm I've ever seen now! I can't wait to see the visibles.
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#73 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:53 am

It might scrape northeastern Taiwan but I don't believe it'll make landfall.
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Re:

#74 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:55 am

bob rulz wrote:Image

Wow, it looks like Taiwan has split this storm in half; that's probably the weirdest-looking storm I've ever seen now! I can't wait to see the visibles.


It's 9 pm. There aren't any.
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#75 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:56 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 24.1N 122.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 27.8N 121.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 191200UTC 32.0N 123.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 201200UTC 35.6N 126.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Down to 70 kts. That position is just off the Taiwanese east coast. Might clip the tip of Taiwan.
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Re: Re:

#76 Postby bob rulz » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:57 am

Chacor wrote:
bob rulz wrote:Image

Wow, it looks like Taiwan has split this storm in half; that's probably the weirdest-looking storm I've ever seen now! I can't wait to see the visibles.


It's 9 pm. There aren't any.


I know. And I know it won't still look like this in 10 more hours, which is too bad.
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#77 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:00 am

JMA have this going right into China, and before that they do forecast a landfall near Taipei:

Image
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#78 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:02 am

NRL is having major issues with the MTSAT right now, no images from MTSAT on NRL in over 24 hours!

Here's an image from about 5 hours ago from NOAA-15.

Image
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#79 Postby wyq614 » Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:37 am

Nanxi, Tainan County (Nanxi Middle School Weather Station) 36mm rainfall in 10 minutes !!

http://qpesums.cwb.gov.tw/taiwan-html/
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#80 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:38 am

(36 mm) per (10 minutes) = 8.50393701 inches per hour

:eek:
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