WPAC: TS Kalmaegi (JTWC: TS 08W)

[RL3AO]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.5N 125.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. A 102356Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY AIR NORTH OF THE CENTER EVIDENT
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, WHICH IS INHIBITING
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIROMENT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTER AND
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[KWT]

Its a small little system and indeed there isn't much in the way of deep convection on the system but the upper level conditions don't look too bad for this in the future so it may well eventually develop.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still has a somewhat unfavorable MJO phase, but it should be improving.

[RL3AO]

Center still exposed.

[RL3AO]

Some nice new convection over the center.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 126E NW SLOWLY.

----

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
126.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 122331Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE NEAR
THE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR NORTH
OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[P.K.]

The ICAO advisory has this as a TS within 6 hours of the below analysis.

WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 20.0N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 20.5N 126.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RattleMan]

The ICAO advisory has this as a TS within 6 hours of the below analysis.

Code: Select all

FKPQ30 RJTD 130600
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                 20080713/0600Z
TCAC:                TOKYO
TC:                  NIL
NR:                  1
PSN:                 N2000 E12640
MOV:                 SLW
C:                   1004HPA
MAX WIND:            30KT
FCST PSN +6HR:       13/1200Z N2010 E12635
FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  35KT
FCST PSN +12HR:      13/1800Z N2020 E12625
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR:      14/0000Z N2020 E12605FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR:      14/0600Z N2030 E12600
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK:                 NIL
NXT MSG:             20080713/1200Z =

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 20.1N 126.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 20.3N 125.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'll be very interested to see how this evolves. A few of the models want to take this NW so I'm naturally curious as to whether this may eventually pass close to Shanghai should it get going.

For those JTWC lovers they've issued a TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 130930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 080 NM RADIUS OF 20.2N 126.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR A WELL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN
CONFINED TO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT HAS
RECENTLY BEGUN TO BUILD NEAR THE CENTER. A 130516Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS THE IMPROVED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 140930Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

PAGASA has designated this Tropical Depression Helen.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 19.8N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 19.9N 125.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RattleMan]

PAGASA has designated this Tropical Depression Helen.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression Helen
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Monday, 14 July 2008
The active low pressure area northeast of Northern Luzon has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "HELEN".
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 385 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.3ºN, 125.8ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: west slowly
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tuesday morning:
300 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Wednesday morning:
230 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Thursday morning:
160 kms East of Basco, Batanes
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

Tropical Depression "HELEN" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains ove Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountains slopes in this area are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[RL3AO]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression Helen
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 14 July 2008

Tropical Depression "HELEN" has maintained its strength and remains almost stationary for the past six hours.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 360 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.2ºN, 125.6ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: west slowly
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tuesday morning:
280 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Wednesday morning:
190 kms East of Basco, Batanes
Thursday morning:
120 kms East of Basco, Batanes
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

Tropical Depression "HELEN" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains ove Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountains slopes in this area are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 19.3N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 19.5N 124.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RattleMan]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130921Z JUL 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.3N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.9N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.0N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.2N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 28.3N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.9N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 125.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM
CENTER. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING NEAR TAU 36, AS
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 130921Z
JUL 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 130930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm very interested to see JMA's forecast track for this once it gets upgraded to TS strength. JTWC going for a northern track buzzing the east coast of Taiwan and then the Zhejiang and Shanghai coasts. If that verifies it might be worth hopping across the Hangzhou Bay bridge to Ningbo for a bit of wind and rain!

Obviously very early days yet and it might just plough into Taiwan instead.

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130921Z JUL 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.3N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.9N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.0N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.2N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 28.3N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.9N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 125.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM
CENTER. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING NEAR TAU 36, AS
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 130921Z
JUL 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 130930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//

[HURAKAN]