ATL: Tropical Storm Bertha RECON Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

what also affects the reduction is the profile of the storm itself

This type of storm almost always has a 75% reduction

[brunota2003]

what also affects the reduction is the profile of the storm itself

This type of storm almost always has a 75% reduction

Therefore Bertha is a strong TS, with 60 knot winds...confirmed by both the 58 SMFR and the reduction of 58.4 from the 78 knot flight level winds.

[Thunder44]

We have a winner for today's recon contest:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101784&p=1734448#p1734448

The contest for tomorrow's flight is already up:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101797

[cycloneye]

Lets discuss the sunday mission here.

[cycloneye]

Alpha pattern again right?

[HURAKAN]

Alpha pattern again right?

Pojo dije el otro día que debido a la distancia un patrón alfa es lo único que pueden hacer.

Pojo said the other day that because of the distance, only an Alpha Pattern can be done.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN, the plane route if it were a little bit north would pass thru that circulation off the SC coast.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, the plane route if it were a little bit north would pass thru that circulation off the SC coast.

Luis, I don't know if there is a circulation but they most likely passed over the convection.

[Thunder44]

HURAKAN, the plane route if it were a little bit north would pass thru that circulation off the SC coast.

Luis, I don't know if there is a circulation but they most likely passed over the convection.

We would be able to get much from it anyway, since they wouldn't flying at operational altitude.

But do you think may be, if that area got a little better organized, that NHC would ask the plane to check it out, after they are done with Bertha?

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, the plane route if it were a little bit north would pass thru that circulation off the SC coast.

Luis, I don't know if there is a circulation but they most likely passed over the convection.

We would be able to get much from it anyway, since they wouldn't flying at operational altitude.

But do you think may be, if that area got a little better organized, that NHC would ask the plane to check it out, after they are done with Bertha?

Depends on the fuel but if its enough they would just need to fly at operational altitude as they move across the disturbance on their way back.

[cycloneye]

Another mission to Bertha tommorow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT SUN 13 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-043

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.....TEAL 71
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0402A BERTHA
C. 14/1200Z
D. 31.0N 63.0W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 15/1800Z
FIX OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA NEAR BERMUDA.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow I have school and won't be able to do the maps. For what I can see in the track we still have Persistent Bertha for a long time.

[CrazyC83]

It's also possible they may have to redirect resources to the Southeast low (95L soon?) if that gets developing.

[CrazyC83]

HURAKAN, the plane route if it were a little bit north would pass thru that circulation off the SC coast.

Luis, I don't know if there is a circulation but they most likely passed over the convection.

We would be able to get much from it anyway, since they wouldn't flying at operational altitude.

But do you think may be, if that area got a little better organized, that NHC would ask the plane to check it out, after they are done with Bertha?

At the level they fly en route, can that give us ANY clues to intensity?

[KWT]

Woah I thought you were older then that Hurakan!

Anyway nothing to suggest and support any higher then 50kts from what I've seen from recon thus far, maybe FL could support 55kts, pressure dropped to 987mbs I believe.

[HURAKAN]

I'm 21, going to college!!! Everyone thinks the same, even when they meet me in person.

[gotoman38]

VDM says 991mb - didn't they find 988?

Also - 30% coverage NE eyewall - does that mean that the NE eyewall is all that remains, or does it mean that there is 30% coverage in the NE quad?

30% COVERAGE OF EYEWALL REMNANTS ON NE SIDE

[KWT]

71kts found at flight level yet SFMR hasn't shown anything above 50kts yet, I think therefore 55kts seems a good estimate still, though its probably the case the system isn't transporting the higher level winds down to the surface very well.

[HURAKAN]

71*.75 = 53.25 knts. I would still keep it at 55 knots, allowing the perception that winds around 55 knots are being produced by the storm but were not measured.

[CrazyC83]

I agree with 55 kt at this point. While the 71 kt FL winds support 65 kt, the SFMR comes nowhere near supporting such (the highest is 52 so far).