ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Jason_B]

I think some of you took DESTRUCTION5's post way too harshly.

[Stratosphere747]

To bad she did not start there...60 Miles from the USA getting off easy..

I said this because there is a heck of alot less potential damage and population too boot..Not because i have something against Mexico....

Honestly it may have been even worse with a hit just S of the border. Brownsville could have taken a direct hit from both the eye and then the intense rainband leading to some serious flooding that set up to the SW of the storm. A double whammy so to speak.

I think your opinion would have changed....

[Chacor]

I think some of you took DESTRUCTION5's post way too harshly.

I disagree. It's not all about the U.S.

[Jason_B]

I think some of you took DESTRUCTION5's post way too harshly.

I disagree. It's not all about the U.S.

To be honest when you live in the US that's kinda all you look out for is your own country and the people who live here. You think there weren't families in Mexico who were praying for Dolly to go further north and hit the US? Ofcourse there were, and there's nothing wrong with that because it's just a natural instinct. When Ivan was heading my way I was hoping all day it would turn west and hit Louisiana, doesn't mean I have anything against Louisiana and their people it's just that in those situations you hope for the best for yourself and your family. All D5 was saying was that he wished it would have turned out better for our neighbors in South Texas and you guys took that as a all out insult to every other country on the planet...quite childish if you ask me.

Just my take on it.

[Chacor]

If someone from Mexico said the opposite of what D5 said, the reaction here would be so much different and they would probably get suspended.

[HURAKAN]

I always prefer a hurricane to hit the US than any other poor country in Latin American or the Caribbean. We still have a strong economy that allows its citizen to stand back up quite rapidly after a blow like a hurricane. People in poor countries are surviving day by day with very little, and if a disaster occurs, it's extremely difficult for them to get back.

[Jason_B]

HURAKAN no offense but how does a strong economy help you when flood waters are forcing you to your roof, or your roof is blown off by the wind in that kind of situation? I don't think anybody disagrees that America is probably the fastest country to heal from a hurricane no doubt, but that doesn't mean people's lives aren't devastated or even killed here too. Again, when a huge storm is heading your way it's only human instinct to hope it turns somewhere else and spares you and your family...it's nothing personal against anybody or any country.

[Ivanhater]

I think this thread has degenerated into pointless political banter and people need to move on...

[DESTRUCTION5]

To bad she did not start there...60 Miles from the USA getting off easy..

I said this because there is a heck of alot less potential damage and population too boot..Not because i have something against Mexico....

Honestly it may have been even worse with a hit just S of the border. Brownsville could have taken a direct hit from both the eye and then the intense rainband leading to some serious flooding that set up to the SW of the storm. A double whammy so to speak.

I think your opinion would have changed....

I think a strike on the border would have had little effect on brownsville since all of our action was to the SW in dollys case...North end of this storm was virtually moisture free at landfall...

To Hurakan's comments about poor countries...We as americans end up paying or helping anyway..When there is a disaster in Mexico we send help and aide...When there is one in the US we pay more taxes and Ins...Pick your poison...

[MiamiensisWx]

Firstly, I'm definitely not downplaying Dolly's effects on southern Texas and northern Mexico; obviously, the effects on lives speak for itself. However, I believe the data is sufficient to support an informed opinion in regards to the 1-min winds.

I've explored the damage photographs and NWS images from southern Padre Island (within the northern eyewall), and although many frail residences/commercial buildings experienced extensive roof damage, I must admit that the wind damages could have much worse to structures. Damages to vulnerable Washingtonia robusta palms seemed less extensive on S Padre Island than the damages inflicted to the same species in south FL during marginal Cat 1 winds (~65-70 kt) in Wilma; I can attest to that fact, as I was in southeast FL during the storm and after the TC passed. Most of the S Florida palms were snapped, while photographs show several exposed palms intact on S Padre Island. Obviously, a handful of photographs and initial reports should never be utilized to fully ascertain the extent of structural/vegetative damages, so I prudently waited until more data arrived today. Based on a blend of the photographs from S Padre Island, Brownsville/northern Mexico, and elsewhere; the reconnaissance/radar data; and analysis of Dolly's structure around the time of landfall, it seems difficult to believe Dolly's maximum sustained winds exceeded 75-80 kt (strong Category 1 status) at landfall, even when I account for the fact that the strongest winds were not experienced by most residents or sampled by ASOS data/land based stations/buoys. I do believe that S Padre Island experienced sustained winds of hurricane force, but they may have likely been near ~65 kt, with streaks near ~70 kt. A very small area of the coastline in portions of south Texas likely received the maximum sustained winds (~75-80 kt).

Personally, it is apparent that overland friction supported the development of an outer concentric eyewall, which allowed subsidence from the convection to affect Dolly's inner eyewall and core. When combined with ongoing low level dry air intrusion, we observed the "abortion" (halt) of Dolly's intensification as it slowed east of Brownsville. This was evident on radar, which indicated the erosion of the northern eyewall. At the same time, this fostered the development of stronger convection in the southern quadrant, which caused the appearance of a "lopsided" TC as stronger winds mixed to the surface on the south and SW sides. Matamoros, Mexico and Port Isabel, Texas actually received extensive wind damages as a result. As Dolly's forward movement decreased, upwelling became an issue over the shallow depths with more marginal OHC close to the coast, so the TC (likely) weakened to a strong Category 1 hurricane as it moved ashore on the barrier islands. If the aforementioned processes did not occur and the negative factors were absent, a larger area of S Padre Island could have received a larger area of Cat 1 sustained winds and greater coverage of stronger winds, including the maximum 1-min winds. As Dolly moved inland, frictional convergence likely maintained its structure, so the convection brought strong winds well inland to Harlingen and adjacent areas.

I was initially concerned about a potential flooding event in NE Mexico via orographic lifting and ascent enhanced by divergence from the upper low to the west of Dolly, but mid level dry air and capping may have precluded/reduced the threat for more extensive precipitation totals and aereal coverage.

Regardless, Dolly was still impressive and destructive to many structures, and large waves/localized storm surge played a role as well.

[Chacor]

We as americans end up paying or helping anyway..When there is a disaster in Mexico we send help and aide...When there is one in the US we pay more taxes and Ins...Pick your poison...

Uhm. When there is one in the U.S., Mexico sends help and aid too. Do you really think that what you have said applies only to the U.S.? Mexicans have their own taxes, you know.

[Category 5]

To Hurakan's comments about poor countries...We as americans end up paying or helping anyway..When there is a disaster in Mexico we send help and aide...When there is one in the US we pay more taxes and Ins...Pick your poison...

And vice versa.

[DESTRUCTION5]

To Hurakan's comments about poor countries...We as americans end up paying or helping anyway..When there is a disaster in Mexico we send help and aide...When there is one in the US we pay more taxes and Ins...Pick your poison...

And vice versa.

Maybe mexico was a bad example...

[tolakram]

If some of you researched what you were saying before you opened your mouth we'd all suffer a little less.

[Chacor]

Yes. Back on topic. Top-class analysis as always, Miami.

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

Are you trying to add spin to this topic?

ooph, I'm here all week.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Here's the power outage stats so far -

Cameron County (Excluding Brownsville) - 92.1%
Duval County - 9.2%
Hidalgo County - 59.7%
Jim Hogg County - 60.7%
Jim Wells County - 5.4%
Kleberg County - 6.1%
Nueces County - 1.1%
San Patricio County - 1.7%
Starr County - 1.0%
Willacy County - 89.1%

A total of 195015 customers are without power, mainly in the harder-hit regions of Dolly. http://www.aepcustomer.com/outagemap/ma ... n=aeptexas

Update as of 10:00 PM EDT, July 24 2008:

Brooks County - 77.7% (Newcomer)
Cameron County (Excluding Brownsville) - 80.3% (Down 11.8% )
Duval County - 11.1% (Up 1.9%)
Hidalgo County - 32.4% (Down almost half!)
Jim Hogg County - 10.5% (Down from 60! Not bad)
Jim Wells County - 7.7% (Up a bit)
Kleberg County - 3.1% (Down 3%)
Nueces County - 0.5% (Almost done)
San Patricio County - 0%
Starr County - 2.6% (Up a tad)
Webb County - 0.2% (Newcomer)
Willacy County - 67.2% (Slowly going down)

Total customer base without power is now 135,099. Slowly but surely, power should be coming back for all in a few days.


Even after landfall, Dolly looked impressive for quite some time. Quite an amazing storm.

[HURAKAN]

Really nice loop of the landfall.

Slow internet? Watchout!

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current ... op_G12.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... timates-54
Wikipedia puts damage estimates at $1.5 Billion.