ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Kludge]

That northerly jog in the gfdl track is sure going to scare a lot of people in Houston if it verifies; especially since all news outlets are saying Brownsville and consensus quite a bit.

I was just thinking that same thing. That's apparently the point at which Dolly is supposed to momentarily feel the weekness...but then later feel the ridge build back in and curve her back to the W again. But yeah...all those coordinate plotters may have a laundry problem if that were to verify.

[HouTXmetro]

That northerly jog in the gfdl track is sure going to scare a lot of people in Houston if it verifies; especially since all news outlets are saying Brownsville and consensus quite a bit.

I was just thinking that same thing. That's apparently the point at which Dolly is supposed to momentarily feel the weekness...but then later feel the ridge build back in and curve her back to the W again. But yeah...all those coordinate plotters may have a laundry problem if that were to verify.

DEJA VU, CLAUDETTE ALL OVER AGAIN. Center reformations, track and all.

[Honeyko]

Four out of six models prefer Kennedy County.

It's like Vegas for hurricanes.

[ronjon]

12Z NAM now closer to mid-TX coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 36hr

[HouTXmetro]

So has the GFS trended south?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 54h

[americanrebel]

I'm thinking none of the models can make up their minds right now on how fast she will intensify, how fast she will keep moving, or what direction she is going to go. They should all just say lets agree to disagree and draw lines from South of the Mexico border all the way to Pensacola. LOL. They have no idea.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, the models have an idea....GFS has been trending South Texas all along, as has the EURO.

[Wx_Warrior]

Even further south...This is what JB was hinting at last evening.

66hr

[HouTXmetro]

I think the GFS and EURO are the most dependable models.

[Wx_Warrior]

Much agreed

[Derek Ortt]

I'm thinking none of the models can make up their minds right now on how fast she will intensify, how fast she will keep moving, or what direction she is going to go. They should all just say lets agree to disagree and draw lines from South of the Mexico border all the way to Pensacola. LOL. They have no idea.

I wouldn't say the models have no idea.

These types of posts are what causes confusion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any model that doesn't show a center near the current center, with an initial movement just slightly North of Due West (or a touch South of W-NW) will be viewed by me with great suspicion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 18Z and 0Z model runs should be well nourished, with extra helpings of upper air data from the G-IV and special 6Z and 18Z soundings from additional Texas NWS offices.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

.UPDATE...
FWD WILL TAKE SPECIAL 18Z/06Z SOUNDINGS BEGINNING TODAY AND
CONTINUING UNTIL DOLLY IS DOWNGRADED AND SUPPORT NO LONGER NEEDED.

24 HOUR TEMP TREND IS RUNNING 0 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...THUS
FEEL CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE GOOD. TS DOLLY IS DUE FOR
LANDFALL AROUND BROWNSVILLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AFFECTS HERE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
OUR SOUTHERN HALF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL has landfall just north of Brownsville:

Code: Select all

439
WHXX04 KWBC 211730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY     04L

INITIAL TIME  12Z JUL 21

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            21.5             88.8           300./15.9
   6            22.2             90.1           299./13.4
  12            22.9             91.3           296./13.2
  18            23.4             92.7           291./13.1
  24            24.0             93.7           298./11.5
  30            24.3             94.5           297./ 7.7
  36            24.8             95.1           306./ 7.1
  42            25.2             95.6           307./ 6.0
  48            25.7             95.9           330./ 6.2
  54            26.1             96.3           310./ 4.8
  60            26.3             96.8           300./ 4.8
  66            26.5             97.4           288./ 6.3
  72            26.8             98.3           288./ 8.0
  78            27.0             99.2           279./ 8.3
  84            27.2            100.2           284./ 8.9
  90            27.7            101.3           291./11.5
  96            28.5            103.2           293./18.1
 102            29.2            104.8           296./16.1
 108            30.2            106.2           303./15.7
 114            31.2            107.5           310./15.1
 120            32.7            109.1           312./19.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


[cycloneye]

A tad closer to Brownsville in this 12z GFDL run as a cat 2.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO is out...

Landfall south of Brownsville.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[O Town]

[jhamps10]

look I know it's the nam and the 18z nam at that, but it sure is interesting what it is showing. Landall near Matagorda bay with a classic looking hurricane based off of their simulated radar image and good development on it starting tonight.