ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Wx_Warrior]

18 GFS, 36 hr

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like the GFS stalls Dolly right at landfall, which would be very bad and mean very large rainfall totals are possible if that happens.

[Recurve]

Can someone recap what ships and GFDL are saying about max intensity? Thanks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 230023 

CHGHUR 

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 

0023 UTC WED JUL 23 2008 

   

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

   

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080723 0000 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        080723  0000   080723  1200   080724  0000   080724  1200 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    24.9N  95.7W   25.7N  97.4W   26.2N  98.9W   26.7N 100.8W 

BAMD    24.9N  95.7W   25.9N  96.9W   26.6N  98.3W   27.1N 100.1W 

BAMM    24.9N  95.7W   25.6N  97.3W   26.1N  98.7W   26.4N 100.5W 

LBAR    24.9N  95.7W   25.9N  97.2W   26.9N  98.8W   27.6N 100.6W 

SHIP        65KTS          73KTS          77KTS          79KTS 

DSHP        65KTS          73KTS          52KTS          35KTS 

   

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        080725  0000   080726  0000   080727  0000   080728  0000 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    27.1N 102.5W   28.5N 106.9W   30.3N 111.1W   32.0N 113.8W 

BAMD    27.7N 102.2W   29.1N 106.7W   31.2N 110.5W   33.2N 111.9W 

BAMM    26.8N 102.3W   28.0N 106.8W   29.7N 111.1W   31.3N 113.8W 

LBAR    28.6N 102.5W   30.5N 105.8W   32.6N 107.5W   34.3N 106.7W 

SHIP        77KTS          69KTS          60KTS          53KTS 

DSHP        29KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS 

   

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  24.9N LONCUR =  95.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =  10KT 

LATM12 =  23.7N LONM12 =  94.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 =   9KT 

LATM24 =  23.0N LONM24 =  92.0W 

WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   55KT 

CENPRS =  982MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D 

RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =  120NM RD34SW =  100NM RD34NW = 100NM 

   

$$ 

NNNN 

 


[Recurve]

Thanks Ed

[LaBreeze]

What are some of the reasons for the possibility of Dolly stalling?

[Thunder44]

047
WHXX01 KWBC 231258
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1258 UTC WED JUL 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080723 1200 080724 0000 080724 1200 080725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.9N 96.7W 26.5N 98.3W 27.0N 100.2W 27.3N 102.0W
BAMD 25.9N 96.7W 26.6N 98.1W 27.0N 99.8W 27.5N 101.8W
BAMM 25.9N 96.7W 26.4N 98.2W 26.7N 100.0W 27.1N 101.7W
LBAR 25.9N 96.7W 26.7N 98.0W 27.6N 99.6W 28.7N 101.5W
SHIP 80KTS 87KTS 90KTS 88KTS
DSHP 80KTS 62KTS 39KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080725 1200 080726 1200 080727 1200 080728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.0N 104.1W 29.9N 108.5W 31.3N 111.5W 32.6N 113.0W
BAMD 28.0N 104.0W 29.8N 108.3W 31.1N 110.9W 32.3N 112.7W
BAMM 27.7N 104.0W 29.4N 108.5W 30.7N 111.7W 31.8N 113.7W
LBAR 29.9N 103.3W 32.5N 105.7W 34.0N 105.5W 34.7N 103.5W
SHIP 83KTS 69KTS 55KTS 49KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 96.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 95.7W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
NNNN

[Extremeweatherguy]

My bet right now is that this winds up hitting south Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It looks like the prediction I made on Sunday morning wound up being pretty accurate..

[americanrebel]

I'm so glad I was wrong. Now on to the next one where I get pounded for predicting the worse and getting the best.