EPAC: Tropical Depression Fausto

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Still looks good mind you, eye is fairly clouded over but the structure still reflects a pretty decent cat-1 hurricane IMO.

[Squarethecircle]

It doesn't look too strong, but definitely a solid 1 (it's improved since I last saw it, but I've been "out" almost all day), and it's very pretty.

[Chacor]

404
WTPZ22 KNHC 200234
TCMEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
0300 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.6N 118.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.5N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ32 KNHC 200238
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...FAUSTO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES
...770 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.3 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 200241
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS
EVENING...WITH A SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
THE BANDING EYE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...SUSTAINING AT 75 KT. A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COMMENCES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON
CONSENSUS...INDICATING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HINT OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AROUND DAY 4 AND 5.

FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/10...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO
SHOULD PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
DERIVED FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.3N 111.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.1N 112.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.3N 114.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.6N 118.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.1N 122.3W 35 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 24.5N 129.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

915
WTPZ42 KNHC 201456
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

FAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS CAME IN AT A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
THUS 75 KT REMAINS THE INTENSITY. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE
12 UTC HAVE DEPICTED A MORE WELL-DEFINED EYE...SO THIS ANALYSIS
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW.

THE TRACK OF FAUSTO IS 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED BY A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE AND A RATHER SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOTION HAS NOT BEEN WELL-DEPICTED BY THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS
LATELY...WHICH HAVE BEEN CALLING PREMATURELY FOR A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BEGIN SPINNING DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE AT ABOUT FAUSTO'S LONGITUDE. THUS THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER-LEVEL
FLOW AT THAT TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE HWRF...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TOO
FAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWEST...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND SIMILAR AFTER THAT.

THE HURRICANE IS OVER WATERS OF ONLY 26C CURRENTLY EVEN THOUGH THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WATER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY COOL MAKING THE
THERMODYNAMICS QUITE HOSTILE...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD STAY
CONDUCIVE. A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AND BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS AND IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.2N 114.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 116.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 118.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 120.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

916
WTPZ32 KNHC 201456
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES
...610 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
THE SAME SPEED OF MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 202033
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

FAUSTO CONTINUES DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE BOTH IN THE INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN STEADY AT A 4.5 AT 18Z. HOWEVER...ADT SUGGESTS A
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER CYCLONE WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER
ABOUT ONE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES. AN EARLIER AMSU
OVERPASS ANALYZED FAUSTO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 82 AND 87 KT FROM
THE CIMSS AND CIRA METHODS...RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS A
BLEND OF THESE VALUES AT 80 KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON
SOCORRO ISLAND...THOUGH THESE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THE
STATION IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 35 M.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A HEADING OF 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE LEFT IS IMPLIED BY
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES. FAUSTO'S TRACK IS BEING DETERMINED
BY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND
POSSIBLY INFLUENCED AS WELL BY THE DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. AS FAUSTO BEGINS TO DECAY IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS...IT SHOULD INCREASINGLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BLEND
OF THE UKMET...GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.

FAUSTO IS LIKELY TO BEGIN A RATHER QUICK DECAY AS IT WILL BE MOVING
OVER COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE AT DAY 4 OR 5.

A 1250Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.7N 113.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.7N 114.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.7N 117.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.2N 119.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 121.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210248
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT INTENSITY. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT A CONSENSUS T4.5 AND A PREVIOUS UW-CIMSS AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS KEEPING FAUSTO AS AN 80 KNOT HURRICANE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
MUCH COOLER SSTS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAUSTO WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FAUSTO IS 310/11. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. MOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
FAUSTO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICAL
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.5N 114.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 116.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 117.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 21.8N 120.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.3N 121.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 125.1W 25 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 25.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

SMN advisory:

TCPA57 MMMX 210318
AVISO NUMERO VEINTE DEL HURACAN FAUSTO DEL PACIFICO ORIENTAL
210300Z JULIO 2008
EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FAUSTO FUE LOCALIZADO EN BASE A IMAGEN DE SATELITE E
INTERPOLACION
A LAS 210300Z CCA DE 19.5 N/114.4 W CON UNA PRECISION EN LA POSICION DE 20
M.N.
CENTRO UBICADO APROXIMADAMENTE A 351 M.N. AL SW DE MMSD SAN JOSE DEL
CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NW A LOS 305 GRADOS A 11 NUDOS CON VIENTOS MAXIMOS DE 80
NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA 95 NUDOS EN UN RADIO DE 35 M.N CON VIENTOS DE 64 KT Y
RACHAS DE HASTA 80 KT EN UN RADIO DE 100 M.N CON VIENTOS DE 34 KT Y RACHAS DE
HASTA 50 KT
POSICIONES PRONOSTICADAS

A LAS 210600Z CCA DE 19.8 N/114.9 W APROX. A 363 M.N. AL WSW DE MMSD SAN
JOSE DEL CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 80 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA
95 NUDOS

A LAS 211200Z CCA DE 20.3 N/116.0 W APROX. A 392 M.N. AL SW DE MMLP LA
PAZ,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 70 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA 85 NUDOS


A LAS 21800Z CCA DE 20.8 N/117.0 W APROX. A 423 M.N. AL WSW DE MMLP LA
PAZ,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 70 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA 85 NUDOS


A LAS 220000Z CCA DE 21.2 N/117.9 W APROX. A 452 M.N. AL SW DE MMLT
LORETO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 60 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA 75
NUDOS


SE RECOMIENDA EXTREMAR PRECAUCIONES EN LAS OPERACIONES AEREAS EN LAS
CERCANIAS DEL SISTEMA TROPICAL
EL SIGUIENTE AVISO SE EMITIRA A LAS 210900 Z O ANTES SI OCURRE ALGUN CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO

[Chacor]

Surprise, surprise!

WTPZ42 KNHC 210849
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY
YESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES
AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN
STRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER
WATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING
IN AROUND 3 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS
ALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.1N 115.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 20.8N 117.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 21.6N 119.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 22.3N 121.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0600Z 26.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[KWT]

Once again good proof that 26C isn't thje be all and end all, got a 85kt hurricane over 24C waters andits strengthened over those waters, very impressive to see have to admit!

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 221458
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FAUSTO IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE SINCE ABOUT 07Z OVERNIGHT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES...WOULD STILL SUGGEST ABOUT A
40 TO 50 KT TROPICAL STORM. A 0925Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF
43 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
SINCE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT.

CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH THE
INITIAL POSITION IS NOT CERTAIN WITH NO MICROWAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT.
FAUSTO WILL BE ADVECTED ALONG TOWARD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS IT DISSIPATES.

AS FAUSTO'S TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE IT OVER COOL WATERS AND
STABLE...DRY AIR...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION RE-OCCURRING IN
THE CYCLONE. IF SO...FAUSTO SHOULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.9N 120.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.3N 122.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.9N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/1200Z 22.9N 127.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

Dead at 21Z I am thinking.

[wxmann_91]

You would be correct, Crazy.

lol@ the first sentence

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222051
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FAUSTO IS NO MORE-O. THE CYCLONE HAS GONE WITHOUT DEEP
CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND THUS NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1340Z DID
PROVIDE A FEW RELIABLE 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT
THE INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN AND IS CURRENTLY
ANALYZED AT 30 KT.

FAUSTO IS MOVING AT 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT THE SAME SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE LARGE CYCLONE SLOWLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOL
WATERS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.9N 121.6W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 23/0600Z 22.3N 123.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 23/1800Z 22.7N 124.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 24/0600Z 23.2N 126.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/1800Z 23.4N 128.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[Chacor]

The results from the Fausto forecasting challenge are now up.