EPAC: Tropical Depression Fausto

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep902008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807131704
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2008, DB, O, 2008071312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902008
EP, 90, 2008071312, , BEST, 0, 92N, 882W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... =latest1km

[KWT]

Looks ok but not much in the way of deep convection at the moment. Still its in warm waters so you need to watch this system still.

[RL3AO]

Convection isn't too bad.

[HURAKAN]

Another EPAC storm to be outshined by an ATL system.

[KWT]

Well maybe Hurakan if 94L forms, its no certainty yet. Have to admit compared to Elida this system doesn't look all that amazing but it doesn't look all that bad either, problem is it does have a strengthening Elida not all that far away either.

[RL3AO]

828
WHXX01 KMIA 131851
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1851 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800 080715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.4N 89.5W 9.5N 90.4W 9.5N 91.5W 9.8N 92.9W
BAMD 9.4N 89.5W 9.6N 91.6W 9.8N 93.5W 9.8N 95.5W
BAMM 9.4N 89.5W 9.6N 91.3W 9.6N 92.9W 9.7N 94.6W
LBAR 9.4N 89.5W 9.7N 91.6W 10.3N 94.0W 11.0N 96.7W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 39KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 39KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 94.7W 12.2N 99.3W 15.0N 103.4W 17.6N 106.4W
BAMD 10.1N 97.5W 11.4N 102.3W 13.6N 106.6W 15.0N 109.4W
BAMM 9.9N 96.6W 11.7N 101.2W 14.4N 105.0W 16.5N 107.8W
LBAR 11.9N 99.9W 13.8N 106.9W 15.2N 112.9W 14.8N 112.9W
SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.4N LONCUR = 89.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 87.6W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DURING THE DAY...CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

657
WHXX01 KMIA 140059
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0059 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080714 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000 080715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 90.5W 10.2N 91.7W 10.5N 93.0W 10.8N 94.6W
BAMD 10.0N 90.5W 10.4N 92.3W 10.8N 94.2W 11.2N 96.2W
BAMM 10.0N 90.5W 10.5N 92.1W 10.9N 93.6W 11.5N 95.6W
LBAR 10.0N 90.5W 10.3N 92.7W 11.0N 95.4W 11.7N 98.3W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080716 0000 080717 0000 080718 0000 080719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 96.5W 12.7N 101.3W 14.2N 104.7W 15.2N 107.7W
BAMD 11.8N 98.5W 13.2N 103.8W 14.6N 108.5W 15.3N 112.3W
BAMM 12.1N 97.9W 13.8N 103.2W 15.3N 107.6W 15.8N 110.8W
LBAR 12.7N 101.7W 14.9N 109.0W 17.1N 115.0W 19.1N 116.3W
SHIP 57KTS 65KTS 64KTS 65KTS
DSHP 57KTS 65KTS 64KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 90.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 88.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 86.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Shear may be a problem.

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *      INVEST  EP902008  07/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    23    27    33    38    48    57    63    65    64    64    65    65
V (KT) LAND       20    23    27    33    38    48    57    63    65    64    64    65    65
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    21    21    23    25    28    31    33    34    35    35

SHEAR (KTS)       15    17    17    16    17    13    10    15    19    16    17    14    21
SHEAR DIR         81    75    62    76    81    70    50    49    53    64    67    87    82
SST (C)         28.0  28.1  28.2  28.4  28.5  29.0  29.2  29.1  28.8  28.1  27.6  27.3  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   144   145   146   147   149   155   158   157   154   146   140   136   132
200 MB T (C)   -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -53.4 -54.3 -53.5 -54.4 -53.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     6     6     7     8     6     9     7     9     7     7     6     6
700-500 MB RH     87    84    82    84    84    82    78    83    80    80    75    76    71
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     5     5     7     7     8     8     7     7     5     5     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR    71    73    68    66    73    70    52    38    26     1    -1    -1   -15
200 MB DIV       101    76    73    77    89    55    75    70    72    30    36    15    16
LAND (KM)        385   396   396   404   415   471   425   423   454   467   528   621   733
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.3  10.5  10.7  10.9  11.5  12.1  12.9  13.8  14.7  15.3  15.6  15.8
LONG(DEG W)     90.5  91.3  92.1  92.9  93.6  95.6  97.9 100.5 103.2 105.6 107.6 109.3 110.8
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     8     8     9    11    12    14    13    11     9     8     7

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  518  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  21.2 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  63.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   9.  16.  23.  29.  33.  34.  35.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   9.   9.   8.   8.   7.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   4.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   5.  10.  15.  24.  34.  40.  44.  42.  43.  43.  43.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   7.  13.  18.  28.  37.  43.  45.  44.  44.  45.  45.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008     INVEST 07/14/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  16.7 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  83.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  85.6 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.2 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.8
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    31% is   2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008     INVEST 07/14/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             



[HURAKAN]

280
ABPZ20 KNHC 141137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE ELIDA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

285
ABPZ20 KNHC 142353
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ELIDA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Derek Ortt]

this looks as bad as 94L

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 151137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ELIDA...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

WTPN22 PHNC 150630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 92.5W TO 9.7N 99.5W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
93.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 93.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. A 150035Z QSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
RANGING FROM 15 TO 23 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE WELL CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160630Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

The same as with 94L, I don't see development in the next 24 hours.

[KWT]

Just like 94L yesterday this just doesn't have very much strong convection at all and I agree with Hurakan I can't see this developing in the next 24hrs unless we see big changes.

[HURAKAN]

499
ABPZ20 KNHC 151721
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ELIDA...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

15/1745 UTC 8.8N 93.7W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean



Dvorak is seeing something that I'm not.